Two of the greatest fighters in UFC history make their Octagon returns after long layoffs when Jon Jones defends the heavyweight championship against two-time former champion Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 309.
Jones defeated Ciryl Gane in March 2023 to win the championship, his heavyweight debut and first fight since early 2020. A fight with Miocic was then planned for that November, but Jones suffered a pectoral injury that forced the fight to be postponed. That postponement also extended a lengthy layoff for Miocic, who has not fought since a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in March 2021.
It has been an odd week for many following the sport as most attention has shifted to a potential Jones vs. Tom Aspinall fight. While Jones was inactive, Aspinall stepped up and earned the interim heavyweight crown and has done everything he can to convince Jones to take a fight with him. Instead, Jones has given a litany of excuses for why that won't happen, ranging from Jones' claim that a win over Aspinall does nothing for his legacy to wanting to drop the belt altogether to pursue super fights with Alex Pereira and Derrick Lewis to straight up not liking Aspinall and how he has gone about his business. None of that will matter, of course, once Jones steps inside the ring on Saturday night, but it continues to linger over everything else going on at Madison Square Garden.
Despite the layoffs and the rise of other, potentially more worthy title contenders, Jones vs. Miocic represents a clash of the most accomplished heavyweight champion (Miocic) and light heavyweight champion (Jones) and will draw plenty of attention because of that fact alone. The betting odds lean heavily toward Jones retaining the title at Madison Square Garden.
After going 1-4 with our best bets for UFC 308, we are sitting with a record of 26-33 on the year. It's been a rough year for our picks, but we're hoping to close out the year strong starting with UFC 309.
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Let's take a look at our picks for the best bet for each main card fight at UFC 309.
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Ruffy is an extremely accurate striker out of the Fighting Nerds camp. He blasted out Jamie Mullarkey in the first round at UFC 301 with a flying knee and some follow-up punches for a big statement win in his UFC debut. Llontop, meanwhile, is on a brutal two-fight losing skid. He was a considerable favorite against Chris Padilla in April but missed weight and was submitted in the first round. Llontop then followed that up with split decision loss to Viacheslav Borshchev in August. Llontop was clipped by several big shots in that fight and that happening again would spell disaster against Ruffy. Llontop is tough enough that playing under 1.5 rounds (+140) isn't as appealing as just taking Ruffy to get the knockout somewhere before the final bell.
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
Fight to go the distance: Yes (-225)
Silva is a good finisher with finishes in 17 of her 18 professional wins but Araujo is not easy to put away. Araujo has been stopped once in her career and that came well before her UFC career. Silva should be expected to get the win and hand Araujo her second straight loss and fourth in her five most recent fights but Araujo is tough and has enough tricks in her bag to make Silva work for it across all three rounds. Silva by decision is +100, which is an appealing line but we're giving a bit of a buffer against an upset by simply taking the fight to go the distance.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Under 1.5 rounds (-175)
Nickal is a massive favorite heading into this one and for good reason. He is the UFC's hyper-prospect, touted as the future of the sport and facing a man in Craig who has suffered some brutal losses in the past few years. Craig does possess the ability to lock anyone in a submission and force a tap, which is why he holds a win over former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill, so maybe there's a chance this proves to be a trap fight for Nickal. Nickal should run through Craig in this fight but we can play it a little safe by taking the under 1.5 round in case Nickal's aggression gets him locked up in a surprise Craig submission.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Over 1.5 rounds (-105)
Both fighters are mostly of the "finish or be finished" school, which is why the fight going the distance is +550. The fact that they have already fought once, with Chandler badly rocking Oliveira in the first round and then Oliveira rocking and finishing Chandler in the second, means they both know how dangerous the other man is. I believe that familiarity will result in a slower first round than many expect before the action picks up in the second. Add in that both fighters know how critical a victory is, with a loss being the end of Oliveira's chances to get back to the title or Chandler's increasingly fading dream of fighting Conor McGregor, and I'm banking on a slow start before a furious finish.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Over 2.5 rounds (+114)
When thinking about this fight, it's hard to shake this weekend's other big fight in Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul. Like that strange boxing match, a lot of this comes down to how interested and capable both fighters are. Is Jones in the mood to go all out like he did in thrashing Ciryl Gane to win the heavyweight title or do we see the more risk-averse version of "Bones" who looked to safely outwork opponents and take the fight the distance? Similarly, what does Miocic look like after being out of action since March 2021? There are a lot of unknowns heading into Jones vs. Miocic beyond that Jones is a heavy favorite to get the win. I'm leaning toward Jones being more wary of Miocic's power and all-around skillset than he was of Gane, and Miocic also being more competent on the ground than Gane if he is taken down. That should lead to the fight going past the halfway mark of Round 3.
Who wins UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
