UFC 310 goes down this Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. In the main event, Kai Asakura makes his UFC debut as he challenges flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja for the title.
Pantoja has established himself as the top fighter in a deep flyweight division, winning the title from Brandon Moreno in July 2023 and successfully defending against Brandon Royval and Steve Erceg. In Asakura, Pantoja faces a hard-hitting opponent who has recently been campaigning at bantamweight.
The co-main event may draw more attention than the title fight. Rakhmonov and Garry are two of the top contenders in the sport, regardless of weight class, and face off in a title eliminator. Rakhmonov brings a perfect 18-0 record to the Octagon, which includes a stoppage in every win. Garry is also unbeaten at 15-0. Elsewhere, Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov battle it out in the heavyweight division. And featherweights Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling jockey for title contention in the featherweight division.
With so much happening on Saturday night, let's look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.
UFC 310 fight card, odds
- Alexandre Pantoja (c) -265 vs. Kai Asakura +215, flyweight title
- Shavkat Rakhmonov -400 vs. Ian Machado Garry +310, welterweights
- Ciryl Gane -370 vs. Alexander Volkov +290, heavyweights
- Bryce Mitchell -900 vs. Kron Gracie +600, featherweights
- Nate Landwehr -135 vs. Dooho Choi +115, featherweights
- Dominick Reyes -360 vs. Anthony Smith +280, light heavyweights
- Themba Gorimbo -175 vs. Vicente Luque +140, welterweights
- Movsar Evloev -255 vs. Aljamain Sterling +205, featherweights
- Bryan Battle -225 vs. Randy Brown +185, welterweights
- Chris Weidman -110 vs. Eryk Anders -110, catchweight
- Josh Van -150 vs. Cody Durden +125, flyweights
- Max Griffin -110 vs. Michael Chiesa -110, welterweights
- Chase Hooper -1000 vs. Clay Guida +650, lightweights
- Kennedy Nzechukwu -600 vs. Lukasz Brzeski +430, heavyweights
With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).
UFC 310 picks, predictions
| Campbell | Brookhouse | Mahjouri | Mormile | Wise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pantoja (c) vs. Asakura | Asakura | Pantoja | Pantoja | Pantoja | Asakura |
| Rakhmonov vs. Garry | Rakhmonov | Rakhmonov | Rakhmonov | Rakhmonov | Rakhmonov |
| Gane vs. Volkov | Volkov | Volkov | Gane | Volkov | Volkov |
| Mitchell vs. Gracie | Mitchell | Mitchell | Mitchell | Mitchell | Mitchell |
| Landwehr vs. Choi | Landwehr | Landwehr | Landwehr | Landwehr | Choi |
Pantoja vs. Asakura
Campbell: From his six-fight win streak and pair of title defenses to his current 9-0 record against flyweights in the top 10, there's no question Pantoja has provided some surprise sustainability to the top of the always chaotic 125-pound division. But at 34, following a trio of close decisions (including a toe-to-toe war with former champion Brandon Moreno), it's becoming a matter of when and not if Pantoja will eventually be overtaken for the title. In fact, in Pantoja's last bout, newcomer Steve Erceg missed out on an upset win in the final round by making a key strategic error. Pantoja will face another newcomer in the form of UFC debutant Asakura, who twice claimed bantamweight titles in RIZIN (while scoring wins over Manel Kape, Kyoji Horiguchi and Juan Archuleta). Asakura is bigger and more explosive from the standpoint of one-punch knockout power. He's also younger and poised to make his first UFC walk an insanely memorable one by winning a world title in a PPV main event. Asakura is battle-tested and dangerous, which makes him one heck of a live underdog entering Saturday.
Brookhouse: I can't get past the idea of Asakura, a big bantamweight, cutting back to flyweight and not impacting him. It's been many years since he's had to make that cut and will have to do that, recover and manage to adapt to fighting in a cage against a man who has made the Octagon his home for years. Asakura hits hard and could absolutely win, to be clear. But looking at how Erceg did well against Pantoja doesn't really translate since Erceg's boxing is very different from how wide-open Asakura is in his striking and how many openings that leaves for the champ to land counters. The cage, the cut and the styles at play are all working against Asakura.
Mahjouri: Asakura has legitimate knockout power but no one has cracked Pantoja's chin. In fact, the flyweight champion hasn't been finished in 33 fights. Asakura predicted a second-round KO when speaking to CBS Sports. He better hope so because his chances to win significantly diminish from round to round. Pantoja has legitimate five-round cardio, going 75 combined minutes in his three UFC title fights. Asakura has never fought past three rounds. Pantoja's chin has made up for his unspectacular takedown defense. Pantoja can make this look easy if he takes his time, keeps his chin tucked and chains takedowns. I wouldn't be surprised if Pantoja wears down the UFC debutant before finding a stoppage in Round 3 or 4.
Wise: I have been the ultimate pessimist with Pantoja and his run. While it is no doubt impressive that he's 8-0 in official bouts against the top 10 fighters at flyweight, his recent fights feel a bit lucky to still be holding the title. Pantoja needed to hold off a late rally against an unknown commodity in Steve Erceg earlier this year and eked out a decision over Brandon Royval last year. He has yet to put together one of those complete dominant performances in title bouts and facing a fighter moving back down in weight who is known to be a dangerous striker just feels like the right time for an upset and more parity in this wild division.
Rakhmonov vs. Garry
Campbell: Garry deserves nothing but praise for accepting this fight on late notice. But so does Rakhmonov, who was willing to go from fighting for the welterweight title in the originally booked main event to fighting a fellow unbeaten in a No. 1 contender's fight in the co-main. Rakhmonov only accepted the bout because he believes there isn't a 170-pound fighter in the world who can beat him. And his 18-fight streak of victories by stoppage to open his career certainly supports that. Even though the two fighters have sparred before at Kill Cliff FC in south Florida, which may have helped Garry accept the fight, this is still very much Rakhmonov's fight to lose. With no holes in his game and a patiently violent style, Rakhmonov should be challenged by the well-rounded Garry but it would be hard to imagine a scenario in which he is outworked, finished or overcome. No one has survived three full rounds against Rakhmonov on the professional level. Garry is being asked to survive five in order to have his best hope of winning.
Brookhouse: Rakhmonov's style is the exact wrong thing for how Garry wants a fight to play out. Garry wants to lead the dance and when he is able to do that, he fights his best, getting loose and flashy with his strikes. Rakhmonov doesn't follow, though, he forces his way into leading and that's something that turns Garry into a very conservative fighter. Garry will have his moments here and there but it's hard to see him being able to fully show his skills against someone who is going to put him on the back foot for so much of the fight.
Mahjouri: Rakhmonov's perfect record probably holds but I see his finishing streak ending on Saturday. Garry can be a flashy striker but won't let loose if a threat looms. Rakhmonov is an incredible dual-finishing threat, finishing all 18 of his fights with 10 submissions and eight KOs. Garry claims to have the best IQ in the UFC welterweight division. He'll execute a careful gameplan to limit Rakhmonov's threats. Expect Garry to point fight at range and test Rakhmonov's wrestling defense. Rakhmonov's forward pressure should create enough opportunities to sway the judges. Considering both men are relatively inexperienced in five-round fights, we could see defensive vulnerabilities emerge late or a significantly reduced pace. I'll take Rakhmonov by decision.
Gane vs. Volkov
Campbell: Even though these two heavyweights fought before in 2021, with Gane scoring a wide unanimous decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46), a lot has changed for both over the past three years. Gane appears to have lost his mojo just a bit after splitting wins and losses in his last four bouts, which include him being outwrestled by a one-legged Francis Ngannou and absolutely demolished by a Jon Jones fresh off a three-year layoff. Volkov, meanwhile, has rebuilt his body into a stronger and even more dangerous finisher. And, save for a first-round submission loss to Tom Aspinall in 2022, Volkov is 4-1 since the Gane defeat and is fresh off a breakthrough decision win over Sergei Pavlovich in June. For all of the speed and footwork advantages Gane brings, Volkov has become much more measured in recent years and has done a better job controlling distance while making opponents pay for attempting to break him down. Gane looked much more willing to bring to the fight aggressively to his last opponent, Sergei Spivak, whom he finished last September. But Volkov is a much bigger and more dangerous threat who appears, after key losses which previously halted his title hopes, on the verge of having his moment.
Brookhouse: Volkov deserves a ton of credit for being a legitimate high-level heavyweight for so long. Every time he suffers a loss or two, be it in M-1, Bellator or the UFC, he seems to make adjustments and come back better, as evidenced in his current four-fight winning streak since losing to Tom Aspinall. Gane won his first meeting with Volkov, but Gane has never struck me as someone who makes big adjustments fight-to-fight while Volkov does seem to understand when something needs to change. This feels like a fight where Volkov utilizes his long, strong jab much better than in the first fight while also maybe mixing in some takedowns, something he has in his toolbox but doesn't often use, given how awful Gane has looked when forced onto his back.
Mahjouri: Volkov is on the best run of his five-year UFC tenure but I don't think he's improved enough since he last fought Gane. Three years ago, Gane virtually swept Volkov on the scorecards in a five-round fight. Gane and Volkov approach their fights with similar goals: hit and don't get hit. Gane is statistically superior in this regard. The Frenchman lands more strikes and gets hit less than Volkov. Gane also leads in striking accuracy and defense. Volkov is the more adept grappler but didn't shoot once in their first meeting. Their previous fight preceded Gane's losses to Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones, fights that exposed Gane's poor defensive grappling. Volkov can win by pushing the pace but urgency has never been his MO. Gane has a better snap on his strikes and finishing instincts. Give me Gane via decision.
Who wins UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
