The penultimate race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is upon us and there are only two spots in the Cup Championship 4 up for grabs at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick are in after collecting a win each the last two weeks and that leaves Christopher Bell, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott to duke it out for the final two spots at the 2024 Xfinity 500 as the Round of 8 concludes. Martin Truex Jr. captured pole position for the 2024 Xfinity 500, which gets underway at 2 p.m. ET.
Elliott is the 5-1 favorite according to the latest 2024 Xfinity 500 odds, followed by Blaney (6-1), Larson (6-1), Truex Jr. (7-1) and Byron (15-2). Bell has a healthy 29-point cushion to work with in the 2024 NASCAR playoff standings going into the weekend and he's priced at 12-1 in the NASCAR at Martinsville odds. Before entering any 2024 Xfinity 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Xfinity 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard.
Top 2024 Xfinity 500 predictions
For the 2024 Xfinity 500, the model is high on Tyler Reddick at 55-1 in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Last week's winner is guaranteed a chance to race for a championship last week, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he'll clear the deck for the six other playoff drivers to compete for the final two spots on Sunday.
With 23XI team owner Denny Hamlin still racing for his playoff life and fellow Toyota driver Christopher Bell still competing for their playoff lives, Reddick would certainly prefer to be running near the front to lend a helping hand and could find himself in a spot where he's in a position to win. He finished a career-best seventh at Martinsville earlier this year despite starting 19th and will undoubtedly be leaning heavily on that setup on Sunday.
And a massive shocker: Blaney (6-1) stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Martinsville starting lineup. Last year's NASCAR Cup Series champion is 38 points behind bubble boy William Byron entering the final weekend of the season, which means he's probably in a win-or-go-home situation.
Blaney has finished 29th or worse in five of his last 10 starts and the fall race last season at Martinsville (which he did win) is the only time that he's led a lap in his last four starts on the famed short track. He'll be in a track position fight all day on Sunday and that's doesn't lend itself well to him being priced as third favorite. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with odds of 24-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 Xfinity 500, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 Xfinity 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Martinsville picks at SportsLine.
Chase Elliott +500
Ryan Blaney +600
Kyle Larson +600
Martin Truex Jr. +700
William Byron +750
Denny Hamlin +950
Christopher Bell +1200
Chase Briscoe +2400
Ty Gibbs +2400
Joey Logano +2600
Alex Bowman +2800
Brad Keselowski +3700
Kyle Busch +3700
Tyler Reddick +5500
Ryan Preece +5500
Josh Berry +5500
Ross Chastain +7000
Chris Buescher +7000
Bubba Wallace +7000
Harrison Burton +10000
Austin Dillon +12000
Carson Hocevar +13000
Michael McDowell +15000\
Todd Gilliland +18000
Daniel Suarez +21000
Erik Jones +28000
Noah Gragson +28000
Justin Haley +28000
Zane Smith +28000
Austin Cindric +28000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +39000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Kaz Grala +50000
Corey Lajoie +50000
John Hunter Nemechek +50000
Daniel Hemric +50000
