After a controversial race in Martinsville that saw teams and manufacturers blocking/slowing down to allow contending drivers to gain track position, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race field is set for Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, William Byron and Tyler Reddick made the final four and will battle for the chance to win the NASCAR championship on Sunday, with the green flag dropping at 3 p.m. ET. So who wins the 2024 NASCAR Championship, and who wins the race outright?
Blaney is the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and he's the 7-2 favorite to win the race in the NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's followed in this week's 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds by Christopher Bell (9-2), Byron (6-1), Logano (13-2) and then Reddick (7-1). Before entering any 2024 NASCAR Championship picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard.
Top 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions
For the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, the model is high on Ross Chastain at 18-1 in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain failed to make the NASCAR playoffs this season and he was penalized 50 points for blocking to help Byron last week in Martinsville, but he's already won from outside title contention this postseason and we know he'll run hard on Saturday.
Chastain won the NASCAR Championship race in 2023 despite having already been eliminated from the title race, leading a staggering 157 laps on his way to victory. He also finished third in the finale in 2022 when he was still in the NASCAR playoffs, going on to finish second in the NASCAR standings. As we saw last week, he won't get in the way of a championship battle but he's still more than happy to run hard and try to steal a win for his Trackhouse Racing team.
And a massive shocker: Bell (9-2) stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Phoenix starting lineup. Bell was narrowly edged out by Byron last week as he sought his third consecutive season of racing in the finale with a title shot on the line.
However, Phoenix in November hasn't historically been great for Bell and the No. 20 team. He finished 36th in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and has never finished better than ninth in the finale in his Cup career. Bell had been running well prior to his 22nd-place finish last week and that likely killed his momentum heading into this weekend. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 NASCAR Championship odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Phoenix picks at SportsLine.
Ryan Blaney 7-2
Christopher Bell 9-2
William Byron 6-1
Joey Logano 13-2
Tyler Reddick 7-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Denny Hamlin 14-1
Chase Elliott 16-1
Martin Truex Jr. 16-1
Ross Chastain 18-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Brad Keselowski 35-1
Chris Buescher 35-1
Chase Briscoe 35-1
Kyle Busch 40-1
Alex Bowman 50-1
Bubba Wallace 65-1
Josh Berry 75-1
Austin Cindric 125-1
Ryan Preece 150-1
Daniel Suarez 175-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Noah Gragson 250-1
Todd Gilliland 250-1
Michael McDowell 350-1
Carson Hocevar 350-1
Erik Jones 500-1
Zane Smith 750-1
John Hunter Nemechek 750-1
Justin Haley 750-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 750-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Harrison Burton 1500-1
Jimmie Johnson 1500-1
Jeb Burton 1500-1
JJ Yeley 1750-1
Daniel Hemric 2000-1
Chad Finchum 2500-1
Kaz Grala 2500-1
Derek Kraus 2500-1
