After a controversial race in Martinsville that saw teams and manufacturers blocking/slowing down to allow contending drivers to gain track position, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship race field is set for Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, William Byron and Tyler Reddick made the final four and will battle for the chance to win the NASCAR championship on Sunday, with the green flag dropping at 3 p.m. ET. Martin Truex Jr. won the pole for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway.
Blaney is the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion and he's the +200 favorite to win the race in the NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's followed by Byron (+500), Logano (+500) and Christopher Bell (+850) in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds. Before entering any 2024 NASCAR Championship picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard.
Top 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions
For the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, the model is high on Ross Chastain at +2000 in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Chastain failed to make the NASCAR playoffs this season and he was penalized 50 points for blocking to help Byron last week in Martinsville, but he's already won from outside title contention this postseason and we know he'll run hard on Saturday.
Chastain won the NASCAR Championship race in 2023 despite having already been eliminated from the title race, leading a staggering 157 laps on his way to victory. He also finished third in the finale in 2022 when he was still in the NASCAR playoffs, going on to finish second in the NASCAR standings. As we saw last week, he won't get in the way of a championship battle but he's still more than happy to run hard and try to steal a win for his Trackhouse Racing team.
And a massive shocker: Bell (+850) stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Phoenix starting lineup. Bell was narrowly edged out by Byron last week as he sought his third consecutive season of racing in the finale with a title shot on the line.
However, Phoenix in November hasn't historically been great for Bell and the No. 20 team. He finished 36th in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and has never finished better than ninth in the finale in his Cup career. Bell had been running well prior to his 22nd-place finish last week and that likely killed his momentum heading into this weekend. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 NASCAR Championship odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Phoenix picks at SportsLine.
Ryan Blaney +200
William Byron +500
Joey Logano +500
Christopher Bell +850
Kyle Larson +950
Tyler Reddick +1000
Martin Truex Jr +1200
Denny Hamlin +1800
Ross Chastain +2000
Chase Elliott +2800
Chase Briscoe +4000
Kyle Busch +4500
Chris Buescher +4500
Alex Bowman +5000
Brad Keselowski +5000
Ty Gibbs +6000
Austin Cindric +10000
Bubba Wallace +10000
Josh Berry +20000
Carson Hocevar +20000
Daniel Suarez +25000
Ryan Preece +25000
Austin Dillon +30000
Michael McDowell +30000
Noah Gragson +40000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +40000
Todd Gilliland +45000
Corey Lajoie +50000
Erik Jones +50000
Harrison Burton +55000
Zane Smith +75000
Justin Haley +75000
Jimmie Johnson +75000
John Hunter Nemechek +100000
Jeb Burton +100000
JJ Yeley +125000
Chad Finchum +150000
Kaz Grala +150000
Derek Kraus +150000
Daniel Hemric +150000
