2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 betting, top predictions, odds: Three free NASCAR longshot picks for Homestead

Christopher Bell's three-race win streak ended last week in Las Vegas, but 2025 NASCAR at Miami presents another opportunity to start a new one. Bell won at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2023 and finished fourth last year, boosting his prospects for the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. Bell's average finish of 5.3 at this track since 2022 is tied for the best in the sport alongside A.J. Allmendinger, the only driver with top-10s in each of the last three NASCAR at Miami races. While Bell is near the top of the 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds at 15-2, Allmendinger could be a steal in 2025 NASCAR at Miami bets at 65-1. The favorite for the sixth race of the Cup Series is Kyle Larson at 9-2, followed by Tyler Reddick (6-1) and Ryan Blaney (6-1).

Before entering any 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Homestead-Miami predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 19 winners since 2021.

SportsLine simulated the Straight Talk Wireless 400 2025 10,000 times. Here are the three best bets, according to the model:

Top NASCAR at Miami sleeper picks from 10,000 simulations 

Ross Chastain (+1900 at FanDuel)

Since being forced to retire at Daytona due to car issues, Chastain has placed in the top 12 in his four ensuing races. He hasn't experienced the greatest prior success at Homestead, but he did finish runner-up at the track in 2022, which was his first NASCAR at Miami race with Trackhouse. Chastain has shown promise on comparable tracks to Miami-Homestead Speedway, as his last victory came in Sep. 2024 at Kansas Speedway, which, like Homestead, is exactly 1.5 miles. He also had a victory at an intermediate track in Nashville the prior year and is a longshot worth investing in at FanDuel.

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Kyle Busch (+2200 at DraftKings)

The veteran driver has been in contention for every race this season in which a crash hasn't derailed him. His first and last races of 2025 saw him suffer car trouble, but in the three races in between, Busch had top 10s in each. He is well-versed with 1.5-mile tracks like Homestead, with the most top 5s and top 10s at intermediate tracks of any active driver, and he knows what it takes to win at Homestead. Busch has two NASCAR at Miami victories and has notched eight top-10s over his last 10 starts at Miami-Homestead Speedway.

Alex Bowman (+3000 at Caesars)

Bowman is someone who's made great strides at Miami-Homestead Speedway after posting an average finish of 26 over his first four starts in South Beach. Since then, he has a 12.4 average finish in Miami, with three top-10 finishes over those five races. He enters Sunday's race with the backing of one of the most successful teams in this race's history as Hendrick Motorsports has four NASCAR at Miami victories, including a pair of them since 2021. Bowman's longshot odds at Caesars bely his strong start to the 2025 Cup Series as he sits fifth in NASCAR standings, and no driver has more top 10s on the season than his four.

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More top NASCAR at Miami expert picks, longshots revealed

You've seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 Straight Talk Wireless 400 leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 19 winners, including Chase Elliott's win at the 2025 Clash at Bowman Gray.

2025 NASCAR Miami odds, drivers, lineup

Kyle Larson +400
Tyler Reddick +500
Ryan Blaney +550
William Byron +600
Christopher Bell +850
Denny Hamlin +1100
Chase Elliott +1200
Joey Logano +1800
Ross Chastain +2000
Kyle Busch +2200
Alex Bowman +2200
Josh Berry +3300
Chase Briscoe +3300
Bubba Wallace +3500
Carson Hocevar +3500
Chris Buescher +4500
Brad Keselowski +4500
Ryan Preece +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Ty Gibbs +6000
Daniel Suarez +6500
AJ Allmendinger +6500
Noah Gragson +15000
Michael McDowell +15000
Austin Dillon +20000
Shane Van Gisbergen +25000
Erik Jones +25000
Zane Smith +25000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +30000
Justin Haley +30000
Cole Custer +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Todd Gilliland +40000
Riley Herbst +50000
Ty Dillon +100000
Cody Ware +150000
JJ Yeley +250000