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The first road course race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season takes place with the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix from Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas, and going from a speedway to a road course always brings drastically different odds as well. Shane Van Gisbergen, who dominated road courses last year with five wins in his six road or street course races, is the +115 favorite in the latest 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix odds. He's the deserving favorite given his road course dominance, but if you are looking for the best value or longshots to target for 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix picks,  that likely won't come from Van Gisbergen. Many of the biggest names in NASCAR have longer odds than they would on traditional speeways, and Van Gisbergen's presence is a significant reason for that. With that, the SportsLine model has found solid longshot values in the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix driver pool. 

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday for the DuraMAX Grand Prix 2026. One of the SportsLine computer model's top 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix picks is Kyle Larson, last year's NASCAR Cup Series champion. Despite winning the Cup Series title, Larson struggled on road courses, but he did have two road course wins in 2024. Listed at 22-1 in the latest 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix odds, the model sees value in his ability to recreate the 2024 road course magic. Other longshots the model projects value in for 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix bets include Chase Elliott (22-1) and Kyle Busch (35-1). Before making any 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix picks or NASCAR predictions, you need to see the projected leaderboard from Mike McClure's proven model.

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McClure is a legendary professional DFS player with more than $2 million in career winnings. He uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every lap of NASCAR action 10,000 times. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 29 winners since 2021 and hit 11 winners in 2025. Anyone following his NASCAR betting picks at their favorite sportsbooks could have seen huge returns.

Now, McClure has turned his attention to NASCAR from the Circuit of the Americas. He's only sharing his best bets at SportsLine.

Top 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix longshot picks

  • Kyle Larson (+2200)
  • Chase Elliott (+2200)
  • Kyle Busch (+3500)

Kyle Larson (+2200)

Larson won his second Cup Series championship last year, and he's finished no worse than seventh in the Chase for the Cup over the last six seasons. He's been one of the most consistent winners in the Cup Series, winning three races last year after claiming six in 2024, which was two more than any other driver. Two of his six wins in 2024 came on road courses, which is what he'll be racing on Sunday. However, Larson struggled on road courses and street courses last year, finishing outside the top 30 in four of his six events. That has dropped his odds to a price Larson rarely reaches. Larson finished second in his COTA debut in 2021, but he's struggled at the track lately. Still, the model views this as a number Larson shouldn't reach and sees value in him at this price for NASCAR betting. FanDuel offers the best odds at 22-1. 

Click here to bet on Larson at FanDuel, where new users receive $100 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. 

Chase Elliott (+2200)

Elliott is off to a solid start this season, currently third in the NASCAR Cup Series standings through three races, including a top-five result. The 2020 Cup Series champion has finished in the top 10 in the final Cup standings in nine of the last 10 seasons, and the only year he didn't (2023) was due to missing significant time from injury. Elliott was one of eight drivers with multiple wins last year, winning twice, and he has a top-10 average career finish in road and street course races. Elliott won his COTA debut in 2021 and finished fourth in last year's spring race at the track. He has three top-five finishes in four career COTA starts, and due to his success at the track, the model projects strong value at 22-1 odds to win Sunday. 

Click here to bet on Elliott at DraftKings, where new users receive $200 in bonus bets if your first $5+ bet wins. 

Kyle Busch (+3500)

Busch leads all active drivers with 63 NASCAR Cup Series wins. He hasn't won any of his five career COTA races, however, he's finished in the top 10 in four of those five contests, including second in the 2023 spring race. Busch finished fifth at COTA last year. He has an average finish of 5.3 over his last three COTA races, and only two drivers top his average. FanDuel offers Busch at 35-1 odds, while other sportsbooks have him as low as 25-1, and the model projects him to finish in the top 10 and compete for a win. 

Click here to bet on Busch at FanDuel, where new users receive $100 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. 

Want more picks for the 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix?

You've seen the SportsLine model's 2026 DuraMAX Grand Prix longshot picks for this weekend. Now, see the model's full leaderboard for NASCAR at COTA. You can only see the model's picks here.