2026 NASCAR betting preview: Experts share picks, best bets, predictions for the season
Racing experts Phil Bobbitt and Steve Greco break down their favorite picks for the entire 2026 NASCAR season
The 2026 NASCAR season officially got underway on Feb. 4, with Ryan Preece taking home the checkered flag in the Cook Out Clash. On Sunday, Feb. 15, is arguably the biggest race of the year in the Daytona 500, where William Byron will try and win for the third year in a row. With so many races set for the rest of 2026, expert auto racing handicappers Phil Bobbitt and Steve Greco have put together a 2026 NASCAR betting preview for the entire season, breaking down their best bets and predictions for the remainder of the year.
Here is Phill Bobbitt and Steve Greco's NASCAR betting preview:
Every NASCAR season starts the same way: hope, optimism, and a wildly irresponsible level of confidence in our own ability to predict chaos.
This one starts a little differently.
I spent the offseason doing what any serious motorsports analyst would do, finishing The Walking Dead. Then Dead City. The Ones Who Live. Fear the Walking Dead. Somewhere between walkers, spinoff and existential dread, we mounted an 80-inch television on the wall just in time for racing season.
Needless to say, SpeedwayBrandi was not thrilled. She is, however, slowly coming around to the idea.
Listen, it was Black Friday. It had to be done. It just felt right. I also had to buy her a new couch as an apology to smooth things over, which is how you know this was both an impulse purchase and a long-term investment. Relationships are about compromise. NASCAR is about screen size.
So now you know where every penny of last season's writer salary went, which means it's time to get back to work. I'm not saying she has me handcuffed to a typewriter in the basement, but if you're reading this, send help.
All jokes aside, the 2026 season has us very excited. And here's why: Because math finally has a seat at the table again. We'll get into that more below.
And as Don Draper once said, "Fear stimulates my imagination." Good. Because this season should scare bookmakers.
This is our favorite column of the year. Historically, it's also our most profitable. It's the one that we circle before the engines ever fire. Our edges are clearer now than they've been in a long time.
So yeah, let's do this thing.
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NASCAR offseason changes
What an offseason NASCAR has had -- and not the kind where we argue about driver ratings and spotter quotes until Daytona sneaks up on us. This one reshaped the sport's future.
There was the 23XI lawsuit, where it looks suspiciously like Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan strong-armed NASCAR. The head brass of the sport blinked while the race teams didn't. We were reminded once again that Michael Jordan does not enter negotiations unless he plans on winning them.
There were driver changes, too. Justin Haley left Spire to pilot a tub for Dodge's start-up program in the Craftsman Truck Series. Daniel Suárez slides into Haley's vacant No. 7 seat. This season also marks the arrival of Connor Zilisch, one of the most highly-touted prospects in recent memory. We talked about him for so long that he started feeling fictional. He is very real, and Trackhouse, along with market makers, have high expectations.
Chevrolet also enters 2026 with a redesigned body. There may be early growing pains, but we are bullish, especially at superspeedways where Chevy desperately needs improvement.
Still, all of it takes a back seat to the format changes.
NASCAR didn't just tweak the rules or reshuffle the deck chairs during the break. It reached into the format drawer, pulled everything out, and said, "Let's do something bold." Or old.
Whatever the case, the Chase is back, and it looks improved from the nostalgic version. It's certainly different from the madness-for-madness-sake elimination style we've had for the last 10 years. This looks like a much smarter way to crown the champion. Wins matter more. Consistency matters more. And pressure -- real pressure -- is back.
Twenty-six races still make up the regular season, but winning will no longer guarantee a playoff spot. The top 16 drivers advance on points alone. Each win is now worth 55 points instead of 40. Stage points, however, remain unchanged.
There won't be manufactured drama on a large scale -- week to week is a different story (Hah!). It is, however, pressure without panic. We now have a system designed to reward teams that understand when to push and when to bank points.
As Betty Draper put it, "You're painting a masterpiece. Make sure to hide the brushstrokes."
That's the entire philosophy. NASCAR wants the urgency to feel organic, not contrived. For teams, it will be a test of discipline. For us bettors, it is an opportunity -- because we hope to adapt faster than market-makers.
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NASCAR futures bets
Patience pays.
Yes, the NASCAR season is long. Thirty-six weeks is quite a commitment, and locking up a portion of a bankroll for that long is not for everyone. At SpeedwaySteve2 HQ, we do not discriminate. Favorites. Mid-range plays. Longshots. You name it. If there's value, color us interested. Price matters, but the process matters more.
Now let's talk about the two drivers staring down the rest of the field.
Straight Forecast: Kyle Larson (1) / William Byron (2): (+1600, Caesars)
Dual Forecast: Kyle Larson / William Byron, (+750, Caesars)
We won't bury the lead.
Kyle Larson is our No. 1 driver entering the 2026 season, and it's not particularly close. He sits 1.5 positions clear of the field in our model, which is the difference between the Grand Canyon and a pothole.
In second? William Byron.
Larson's 2025 season looks underwhelming if you only scan the win column -- three victories. That's a perfectly fine season for anyone who isn't considered by some to be the best racing driver on the planet. It undersells what actually happened for the Cup Series' defending champion.
From a speed perspective, Larson was a menace.
- Fastest green-flag speed in seven races (most in the series)
- 15 top-five finishes (tied-most)
- Third-best average running position (13.1)
- Fourth-best average finish (13.2)
And then there's the track-type dominance.
On 1.5-mile tracks, which still make up the bulk of the schedule, Larson was a cheat code:
- Best average finish (9.3)
- Best average running position (8.2)
- Most laps led per race (61.9)
- Most fastest laps per race (26.8)
Absolute dominance.
He's not a one-trick pony kind of guy either. Larson ranks sixth in our matrix on short-flat tracks and third on superspeedways. While the road-course results didn't fully pop, he still has enough pace to be annoying to SVG and relevant in win conversations while also turning right.
Yes, he's aggressive -- sometimes recklessly so. That's always been the knock on Larson. But with wins now worth 55 points instead of 40, the math suddenly favors leaning into that aggression instead of dialing it back.
If Larson converts even a little more of that raw pace into wins, this season has runaway potential. But what if it's not Larson?
Then, it's definitely Byron. He doesn't get talked about like a weekly sledgehammer, but the numbers are loud when we look behind the curtain.
In 2025, Byron posted:
- 11.0 average running position (best)
- 73.4% of laps run inside the top-15 (best)
- 36.9 laps led per race (best)
From a pure efficiency standpoint, he was elite.
Byron's issue has never been raw speed. It's always been a lack of late-season execution, particularly once the playoff cutline turns every decision into a hostage negotiation. Now, that problem has quietly disappeared.
With the new format eliminating automatic win berths while shifting the emphasis back to total points, Byron's steady, methodical approach becomes a feature instead of a flaw. There's less incentive to force the issue and more reward for stacking strong finishes.
Sometimes the fix is an evolving environment, and this new Chase environment sets up beautifully for both drivers.
Championship team winner
Pick: Hendrick Motorsports, (+120, Caesars)
This prop feels unfair, which is usually a good sign.
We are buying more shares of Kyle Larson and William Byron while adding a side of Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. That gives us four of the top nine drivers in our model. We're getting depth, flexibility and insurance.
Elliott remains one of NASCAR's most reliable points accumulators. While he won't dominate every week, he'll usually be lurking at the sharp end of the stick. In 2025, he posted the second-best average finish (12.6) and remained competitive across every track type.
Alex Bowman? Yes, he's still employed by Hendrick Motorsports even though he is everyone's favorite hot-seat debate topic. Bowman is quietly ninth in our rankings and once again undervalued by the public.
So while we're here:
Win Total: Alex Bowman Over 0.5 wins (-120, Caesars)
Bowman will be in the mix to win a handful of times. We won't miss it, and don't want you to either.
Top Chevy / Top Toyota: Kyle Larson / Christopher Bell, (+550, Caesars)
Christopher Bell is a problem.
He ranks fourth overall in our model and sits comfortably atop the Toyota camp. Denny Hamlin is the next Toyota in our ranking, and there's a noticeable gap. We're projecting some regression for Hamlin following last year's championship heartbreak, an offseason shoulder injury and as he navigates personal tragedy.
Bell's 2025 profile was exactly what you want in this format:
- Best average finish (11.3)
- Second-best average running position (12.3)
- Best green-flag speed in two events
- Top eight green-flag speed in 19 races
The pit crew will need to cooperate, but Bell's race craft alone puts him in a different tier than the rest of the Toyota field.
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Outright Winner: Chris Buescher (+5000, BetRivers)
Here is the super long-range dart you've been waiting for. Buescher ranks 10th in our model but is being priced much further down the board than our fair valuation. He is a very consistent driver who can nab a few wins in any given campaign, especially for an RFK team that continues to improve.
This is the longest season in sports. It rewards discipline and punishes ego. The best bets are usually the ones you are comfortable holding when nobody else is.
Let's go get paid.
