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BRISTOL, Tenn. -- In the world of sport, the coliseum has long stood as the ultimate proving ground, higher in lore than a stadium, arena or any other venue for public spectacle. By now, most of the world's great coliseums are gone. But in the mountains of East Tennessee, one still stands and looms large over the rise and fall of its gladiators.

Saturday night marks not only one of the greatest spectacles in all of NASCAR -- the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway -- but also the final race of the Round of 16 and the first elimination race of the NASCAR playoffs. With only Joey Logano having advanced to the Round of 12 by virtue of his win at Atlanta, the championship fates of 15 drivers continue to hang in the balance, with four's chances at winning the 2024 Cup Series championship set to end by the end of a 500-lap race that represents the most explicit display of Saturday night short track racing there is.

Time and again, Bristol has proven just how tough a racetrack it is, as it did once again in a spring race that featured extreme levels of tire wear creating an intense, edge-of-your-seat and edge-of-control affair. With tire wear expected to play a major factor yet again this weekend, well-conserved rubber and intact fenders could make a major difference in determining exactly who hoists the Bill France Trophy at Phoenix in November.

Where to Watch the NASCAR playoffs at Bristol

When: Saturday, Sept. 21
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway -- Bristol, Tennessee
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: USA
Online streaming: fuboTV (Try for free. Regional restrictions may apply.)

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What to Watch

As is the case in all playoff races, each driver in the Round of 16 can clinch a spot in the Round of 12 by winning the Bristol night race. If there is a repeat winner (Joey Logano) or a win by a non-playoff driver, clinching scenarios for each playoff driver are as follows:

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 10 points
  • Austin Cindric: Would clinch with 13 points
  • Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 15 points
  • Daniel Suarez: Would clinch with 19 points
  • Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 26 points
  • Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 26 points
  • Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 27 points
  • Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 30 points
  • William Byron: Would clinch with 31 points
  • Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 50 points
  • Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 50 points
  • Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
  • Brad Keselowski: Could only clinch with help
  • Martin Truex Jr.: Could only clinch with help
  • Harrison Burton: Could only clinch with help

However, if there is a new winner from below the Round of 12 cut line, the clinching scenarios would change to as follows. The points listed here would ensure each driver listed of being ahead of the 11th winless driver in the playoff standings.

  • Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 14 points
  • Austin Cindric: Would clinch with 17 points
  • Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 19 points
  • Daniel Suarez: Would clinch with 23 points
  • Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 30 points
  • Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 30 points
  • Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 31 points
  • Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 34 points
  • William Byron: Would clinch with 35 points
  • Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 54 points
  • Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 54 points
  • Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
  • Brad Keselowski: Could only clinch with help
  • Martin Truex Jr.: Could only clinch with help
  • Harrison Burton: Could only clinch with help

News of the Week

  • 23XI Racing announced Wednesday that they have signed Bubba Wallace to a multi-year contract extension to continue driving the No. 23 Toyota in 2025 and beyond. Wallace, who was the first driver hired by 23XI when the team entered NASCAR in 2021, has earned two career wins with 18 top fives, 33 top 10s, three poles and a best finish of 10th in the championship standings since joining the organization.
  • NASCAR Xfinity Series team AM Racing announced Friday that they have hired Harrison Burton as the new driver for the 2025 season. Burton, whose upset win at Daytona earned him a spot in this year's playoffs, will return to the Xfinity level after a three-year stay in Cup, allowing him to build on an Xfinity Series resume that includes four career wins.

Pick to Win

Ty Gibbs (+850) -- Gibbs was my outright pick to win Bristol back in March, and based on how close he came to winning that race I'm going to make him my outright pick to win Bristol again. Gibbs has led 239 laps in his last two Bristol starts, including 137 laps in the spring where he had one of the best cars in the field and was leading with less than 100 laps to go before a tire went down and relegated him to ninth at the checkered flag.

Gibbs' performance is going to be interesting to monitor throughout the weekend, as he is in a big spot of having a narrow six-point advantage over the cut line to advance to the Round of 12. As far as I'm concerned, I think he rises to the occasion.