With Ty Lawson traded to the Houston Rockets Sunday night, there's a lot to consider. It's a big move for both franchises. Houston didn't give up anything essential, but they did cash in most of their trade chips on this move. Denver loses one of its best players over the past four seasons at his lowest value following his most recent DUI arrest.
1. The trade can be considered a "steal" for both sides. In reality, this means it's just a good trade. Denver's leverage in any trade scenario was compromised after Lawson's third DUI (and he indicated to officers there was a fourth, unreported incident). The Nuggets' hopes of getting a first-round pick for Lawson were badly damaged by that development, so to wind up with a lottery-protected first is a good swing in forward momentum for them. Nick Johnson showed some potential at guard for Houston and Papanikoloau is a creator, which Denver needs more of.
All told, the Nuggets clear a little cap room, add a little depth with some upside guys, and get a protected first-rounder, while giving up a second. It's not a a great return for Lawson's value, but it's also not bad considering Lawson's baggage and the presence of Emmanuel Mudiay, who incidentally shined in Summer League.
For Houston, point blank, they could afford to make this move. Johnson, Prigioni, Dorsey, Papanikolaou; none were key members of the Rockets' future. The pick is likely to have low value in the 20s. And in return, they get a troubled young man with incredible point guard abilities, who has been a key part of a 57-win team, who can shoot, score and distribute.
They gave up almost nothing, and took a gamble on a guy that puts them in another tier if his personal concerns are resolved.
2. Ty Lawson is a huge upgrade and could be a difference-maker for the Rockets.
How good is Ty Lawson? Last season he ranked 7th in total points produced (points + assists) in the NBA, ahead of Damian Lillard, Blake Griffin and Kyrie Irving. The Top 6? Russell Westbrook, James Harden, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Steph Curry and John Wall.
Not exactly bad company.
As evidenced by this type of production, Lawson is incredibly gifted. He's able to score in subtle, crafty ways and is a smart passer. He makes the most out of situations where he has options, and Houston's offense does a lot of that. Create a pick and roll, have shooters on the outside, create space at the rim. All of this feeds to Lawson's advantage.
Houston struggled last season, particularly in the playoffs, when they needed another creator and threat on the perimeter outside of Harden. Now they have one. Patrick Beverley mitigates the defensive concerns and can play with Lawson in a combo-guard set. It's a great fit at Houston's biggest position of need.
3. Ty Lawson has problems, one in particular being very serious.
OK, here are the bad elements to Lawson's game.
He's a minus defender on account of his size. He gets hung up on screens, and, more problematic, he's injury prone. He's crafty and quick, but he's also able to be singled out and victimized. James Harden improved leaps and bounds defensively last year, and the Rockets' defense was stout, but overall Harden is still a liability on that end and Lawson only makes that situation worse.
Lawson's field goal percentage has also dropped every season before last year, when it dead-cat-bounced up from 43 percent. So has his 3-point percentage. He's become a less efficient player over time, and that's problematic when he's going to need to be more of a shooter than a game-manager next to James Harden.
Lawson has also been known to be a problem in practice. Teammates have spoken highly of him, but he's a notoriously laid-back player to the point of frustrating coaches.
As for the more serious problem Lawson brings to table, don't overlook where Lawson is at with his alcohol-related incidents. Lawson has three DUI's on record and indicated a fourth in Missouri was issued. That's not just the sign of a young man with a serious inability to make sound decisions, that's indicative of a substance abuse problem, which is why he checked into a 30-day rehab facility this week.
Lawson has had significant issues with this. He missed a flight back from Vegas after the All-Star break due to what he called "logistical issues." His DUI arrest in January was after a team charity function, and the conditions of his bail for that arrest pending trial this summer included a ban on alcohol, which he clearly broke in his latest arrest. There is the very real possibility of Lawson facing jail time. Athletes rarely see such punishment in these circumstances, and his proactive approach to rehab may pave the way for a plea deal to avoid jail time. But Lawson's problems aren't just a black mark on an NBA player's trading card. They're serious.
This is a very real person who, according to everyone I've ever spoken to that has dealt with him, is a "good guy," who has struggled with a lifestyle that has gotten out of hand. There is an unknown factor here that could lead to further ramifications with his tenure with the Rockets, but more importantly, he's facing a very real problem in his life that he needs to get sorted out before any talk of how he fits with Houston.
4. Denver had no choice in this deal. Denver had to move Lawson. This was the situation last year when the team completely fell apart. This was the situation at the trade deadline when it was apparent they needed to clear space and tank their draft pick. This was clear on draft night when they were going to draft Emmanuel Mudiay and had the best chance to move Lawson for a tangible asset.
Instead, they held out, trying to find the right deal, and after his latest DUI arrest, it cost them. Even before the arrest, Lawson sent out a video on draft night laughing about how he'd be a Sacramento King. He's been telling fans he'll be somewhere else for months. The ship had sailed. Going into training camp with Lawson would have been a distraction and put Mudiay in a tough spot, as well as coach Michael Malone. Lawson had to go.
The Nuggets' drafting of Mudiay makes the low return they got on this deal go down smoother. He's had a tremendous summer league, and looks like a franchise point guard. He's tall, can defend, and he can make plays. He's not a scorer, but he shows leadership ability and that matters. They have veterans in Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler to help guide the young guys.
Lawson aggravated and frustrated Denver fans and media even before the situation became untenable after his recent arrests. That turned to disgust in the past six months. This was a marriage that could have been something meaningful, that once looked like the bedrock of a perennial 50-plus-win team. Instead it turned sour.
This was an agreeable end to an unsustainable situation. The relationship's been over for a while. One of them just finally moved out.
5. There are domino effects from this. Denver's going to have way too many guys on its roster. They'll look to waive or trade Pablo Prigioni. They'll look to move other guys, whether that's who they have on the roster now or the new players they added. Houston will have depth available and needs, which could bring Jason Terry back. Neither roster is where it will be on opening night.
The only thing that's certain is that both are looking to start new eras with this trade. For Houston, there's hope that this is the one that puts them over the top. For Denver, it's the formal announcement of a new era, win or lose.
