Heat vs. Celtics odds, prediction, spread, time: 2026 NBA picks for Friday, February 6 from proven model

The Boston Celtics look to extend their winning streak to five games when they battle the Miami Heat in a key NBA Eastern Conference matchup on Friday night. Miami is coming off a 127-115 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, while Boston defeated the Houston Rockets 114-93 on Wednesday. The Heat (27-25), who lead the Southeast Division, are 11-15 on the road this season. The Celtics (33-18), who are tied with the New York Knicks for the Atlantic Division lead, are 16-8 on their home court. Miami's Tyler Herro (toe) is out.

Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Celtics lead the all-time series 88-54, and have won both meetings this season. Boston is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 226.5. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 38-16 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.   

Now, the model has simulated Heat vs. Celtics 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Celtics vs. Heat:

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How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

After 10,000 simulations of Heat vs. Celtics, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (226.5). The Over has hit in two of the last three head-to-head meetings. The Over has also hit in seven of the last 10 Miami games. 

The SportsLine model is projecting Miami's Norman Powell to score 19.7 points on average and be one of five Heat players to score 11.1 or more points. Boston's Jaylen Brown, meanwhile, is projected to have 32 points as five Celtics players score 10.4 points or more.

It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 70% in simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks. 

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.