Heat vs. Magic odds, prediction, line, time: 2025 NBA Cup picks for December 9 from proven model

The 2025 NBA Cup has reached its knockout round, with the quarterfinals of the NBA In-season Tournament beginning on Tuesday. The first matchup has the Miami Heat visiting the Orlando Magic in a series known as the Sunshine State Rivalry, with both teams in Florida. Orlando (14-10) went 4-0 in group play of the NBA Cup 2025, earning the East's top seed. Miami (14-10) went 3-1 in Cup play, earning the wildcard seed. Neither franchise has ever advanced past the NBA Cup quarterfinals. Franz Wagner (ankle) is out for Orlando, while Tyler Herro (toe) is probable after missing the last two games.

Tipoff is at 6 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando, Fla. The Magic are 2-0 versus Miami this season, including a 106-105 victory on Friday. Orlando is the 1.5-point favorite in the latest Magic vs. Heat odds, while the over/under for total points is 235.5. Before making any Heat vs. Magic picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 29-14 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Magic vs. Heat 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Magic:

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How to make Heat vs. Magic picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total (235.5). Orlando will be without its leading scorer in Wagner, robbing the team of 22.7 points and putting even more on the shoulders of Paolo Banchero, who has struggled as of late. The former No. 1 overall pick hasn't topped 16 points in three straight games, and Miami's reigning All-Star in Tyler Herro is coming off his own injury. He hasn't played in nearly a week, so the three best scorers in this game either being unavailable or going through issues contributes to the Under hitting.

The recent trends also have the model leaning under, as each of the last three games for both teams have failed to reach the total. The advanced model projects just one player in this game reaching 20 points in a defensive battle. With that, the teams are forecasted to combine for 229 combined points, with the Under hitting in 60% of simulations.

The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks. 

So who wins Magic vs. Heat, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Magic spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.