We've got another exciting matchup on Friday's NBA schedule of two teams who figured to be in the championship conversation entering the 2024-25 NBA season as the Miami Heat will host the Oklahoma City Thunder. Miami is 13-11 overall and 8-4 at home, while Oklahoma City is 21-5 overall and 10-3 on the road. The Thunder won both of their head-to-head meetings last season after Miami had won each of the previous six matchups.
Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami. OKC is favored by 1.5 points in the latest Thunder vs. Heat odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 216.5 points. Before entering any Heat vs. Thunder picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 124-84 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Oklahoma City. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Heat spread: Thunder -1.5
- Thunder vs. Heat over/under: 216.5 points
- Thunder vs. Heat money line: Thunder: -114, Heat: -105
- OKC: The Thunder are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last seven games
- MIA: The Heat are 4-1 ATS and 5-0 overall over their last five home games
- Thunder vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Heat streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
The Thunder (21-5) have the second-best record in the NBA this season and enter on a six-game winning streak, not including their 97-81 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup Final on Tuesday, which doesn't count toward their overall record. The Thunder are 10-2 overall, even including Tuesday's loss, over their last 12 games as they are playing like a team destined for an extended postseason run. The Thunder are 8-4-1 ATS on the road this season, including 7-4-1 as the road favorite.
Seventh-year guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.5 points and 5.4 rebounds with a career-best 6.3 assists per game. He's developed his game beyond just being a pure scorer to get his teammates involved more as well. But the Thunder are especially dominant defensively this season as they lead the league in scoring defense (103.1 ppg) and opposing shooting percentage (42.5%). They average seven steals per game, which ranks third, and have the second-best 3-point defense, holding teams to 33.4% from beyond the arc. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 125-124 overtime loss on the road to the Pistons on Monday, but Miami has won five straight and seven of its last eight games at home. Miami covered the spread in six of those victories as well. Amid Jimmy Butler trade speculation that the people around the six-time All-Star are trying to dispute, the 35-year-old had 35 points, 19 rebounds and 10 assists against the Pistons on Monday in one of his best games of the season.
Tyler Herro leads Miami at 24.1 points per game, including averaging 25.4 points over seven games in December. Butler is adding 19.4 ppg with Bam Adebayo posting 16.2 points and 10.3 rebounds. Miami has the No. 6 scoring defense (109.7 ppg) and is shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc, which ranks seventh in the league. Given Miami's home dominance as of late, it can knock off the surging Thunder. See which team to pick here.
How to make Thunder vs. Heat picks
The model has simulated Heat vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 124-84 roll on top-rated NBA picks since last season, and find out.
