This is my final ranking of shooting guards in the 2016 NBA Draft. We've already scouted these players ad nauseam. If you want a more basic evaluation or to read more about their strengths and weaknesses, head to last month's shooting guard ranking. So let's talk about something different yet equally as important.
Fit is often discussed in a negative light. Plenty of analytic models and people around the league believe in a best player available strategy when selecting due to rapid roster turnover and the difficulty of scouting. However, I'm not quite behind that. Often, systemic and emotional fit is just as important as skill level -- and this draft is going to show that in a pretty high-level manner. The players are all bunched so tightly together based on skill level that the way they fit in a certain roster or situation could make or break whether or not they can carve out an NBA career. The right fit can foster better player development, and it can accentuate the best skills a player has.
What are the best fits for the top 10 shooting guards in the class within their draft range? Let's take a look.
1. Jamal Murray | Kentucky | Draft Range: No. 3 to No. 8
Boston (No. 3): The Celtics have a pretty significant need in spacing the floor, as the team has shot poorly in each of the last two seasons. Murray would provide that in a big way. However, if he goes No. 3, I wonder if he ends up staying Boston, as the team already does have quite a few undersized guards.
Minnesota (No. 5): The team definitely has a need in the backcourt just in terms of depth, as the only players there worth building around are Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine. He'd stretch the floor in between Rubio and Andrew Wiggins.
New Orleans (No. 6): A team with a highly uncertain future in the backcourt. The Pelicans have Eric Gordon as a free agent this year, and Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans as free agents next year. Murray could help shore up that situation.
Denver (No. 7): Another team with significant floor spacing questions. Murray could pair well with Emmanuel Mudiay to provide some talent in the backcourt with his scoring ability.
Sacramento (No. 8): Tough to see him falling beyond this point if he gets here given who would have to go before him. Murray just makes way too much sense as a shooter and scorer to space the floor for DeMarcus Cousins and give them some punch from the perimeter.
2. Buddy Hield | Oklahoma | Draft Range: No. 3 to No. 8
All of the teams in the market for Murray will also be in the market for Hield. If you made me guess, I would say that Sacramento and New Orleans would be more likely to pick Hield if both were on the board, and the other teams would certainly be more of a toss-up. We'll see how this thing goes down on draft night, but it's hard to see either player falling out of the top eight.
3. Timothe Luwawu | Mega Leks (Serbia) | Draft Range: No. 10 to No. 26
Luwawu's stock around the league fluctuates heavily depending on who you talk to. Some really like him, others do not. He'd fit in plenty of places though due to his ability to defend, his motor, his burgeoning ability to create off the dribble, and potential to shoot.
Milwaukee (No. 10): The Bucks tend to like players who are long, athletic, are young and have high character. Luwawu hits three of those four boxes, and could work in the team's switch-heavy defensive scheme.
Atlanta (No. 12/21): The Hawks are going to lose Kent Bazemore in free agency, in all likelihood. Luwawu would be an interesting long-term replacement.
Phoenix (No. 13), Chicago (No. 14): A pair of teams that could use some further help on the wing, particularly at the 3 spot. Luwawu profiles more as a 2 right now, but maybe could grow into that position.
Denver (No. 15/19): The Nuggets own two picks in his range, and I'd be surprised if Luwawu got beyond both of them. Simply put, Denver scouts Europe better than any team in the NBA. They'll know his game well.
Boston (No. 16/23): The Celtics also could use a bit more depth at the 3 spot, and Luwawu could represent an opportunity there. Also, maybe they can get him to agree to being stashed overseas for a year if they need to with all of these picks?
Memphis (No. 17): They need to get younger on the wings, full stop.
Detroit (No. 18): His game might go over well on the wing with Stanley Johnson, although he's a bit similar to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in terms of defensive versatility.
Charlotte (No. 22): Free agency concerns here, too, as the Hornets may lose Nicolas Batum.
Philadelphia (No. 24/26): The team could just use as much help as it can get on the perimeter.
4. Denzel Valentine | Michigan State | Draft Range: No. 12 to No. 35
The reported concerns over Valentine's knee has thrown his draft range for a loop. Some teams really love his game. But what do you do if you think the concerns are legitimate long-term problems? At what point does the benefit outweigh the problem? Tough to say right now.
Phoenix (No. 13/28/34): The Suns are said throughout the league to be relatively high on him, and the team has experience dealing with knee conditions. The biggest question: at what point do they decide they want to take the plunge, if they make that call.
Chicago (No. 14): What a superb fit he'd be in Fred Hoiberg's offense. His ability to shoot and pass from the wing would work like gangbusters in that scheme.
Denver (No. 15/19): He'd really help to space the floor for Mudiay, and also help to create some secondary help ball-handling.
Boston (No. 16/23/31/35): Boston may have plenty of chances to take Valentine, a player who would immediately help them in terms of floor spacing and ball movement in Brad Stevens' offense.
Memphis (No. 17), Detroit (No. 18), Indiana (No. 20): Three teams who need to get younger and better on the wing. All three could really use his skill set.
Atlanta (No. 21), Charlotte (No. 22): Free agency concerns here.
Philadelphia (No. 24/26): Look, if Valentine's there, I would find it hard to believe Philly would pass on him. He just fits so much of what that team needs in terms of ball movement and floor spacing.
San Antonio (No. 29): Valentine might break worlds in San Antonio. The scheme fit in that offense is just perfect.
Golden State (No. 30): Yet another perfect schematic fit. Imagine him finding reversals to guys like Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. Or them finding him open. Just so much space, and so much effectiveness. Plus, the team has shown no issues with drafting players with injury questions in the past.
5. Malik Beasley | Florida State | Draft Range (No. 16 to No. 35)
Basically all of the same teams apply to Valentine as to Beasley -- another player with an injury question mark, although one less concerning than the aforementioned Michigan State star. Beasley is more of a creator and shooter than Valentine, and will be in the NBA Draft's green room, so it's possible he hears his name called a bit earlier. Particularly, look for Charlotte, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and his hometown of Atlanta on Beasley.
6. Furkan Korkmaz | Anadolu Efes (Turkey) | Draft Range: No. 12 to No. 26
I do think Korkmaz goes somewhere in the first round, but his stock isn't necessarily super high at the moment either. All of the teams above in the Valentine and Luwawu sections could use a player like Korkmaz, but he's a bit of a project and may not come over immediately depending on where he is picked. I'd look to Denver, Boston, and Philadelphia as his prime landing spots, especially if a stash is a possibility.
7. Malcolm Brogdon | Virginia | Draft Range: No. 24 through No. 45
Brogdon is a guy I'm a bit higher on than most because I just see him as an NBA player, full-stop. He's the best perimeter defender in college basketball in 2016, a capable shooter and ball-handler, plus moves without the ball superbly. Still, the upside is limited. Here are a few of his first round potential spots, but I think it's more likely he goes Round Two.
Philadelphia (No. 24/26): The Sixers could use a high-character kid like Brogdon who can defend and run off screens for days in the backcourt.
Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25): The Clips are looking to contend right now, and Brogdon is about as ready help as any player in this draft due to his maturity and strength.
San Antonio (No. 29): Brogdon is just a Spurs-y player that the team would get the most out of due to his basketball IQ and two-way play.
8. Malachi Richardson | Syracuse | Draft Range: No. 12 to No. 24
The bottom end of that range might be too low, what with a rumor out there of a promise to Richardson from Memphis at No. 17. It's entirely possible he ends up at No. 17, but I just refuse to outright buy into promises full-stop due to the uncertainty of who will be on the board at a pick that late in the first round. But I do think he probably goes somewhere in that range, without falling past Philly at No. 24.
9. Patrick McCaw | UNLV | Draft Range: No. 25 to No. 45
I'm not the biggest believer in McCaw necessarily, but I do think he has a shot to be successful due to his size, length, defensive skill, passing and potential to shoot it. Looking around, I think it's unlikely he finds his way into Round One, but weirder things have happened. More likely, he's a first half of Round Two guy.
10. Isaia Cordinier | Denain (France) | Draft Range: No. 23 to No. 45
If the team that takes him can convince him to stay overseas for a year, Cordinier might have a chance to go in Round One due to the amount of teams with multiple picks. Look for Philadelphia, Boston, Toronto and New Orleans to be potentially interested for a multitude of factors, including that.
Next 10:
11. Michael Gbinije | Syracuse | Draft Range: Early second to undrafted
12. Caris LeVert | Michigan | Draft Range: Early second to undrafted
13. Sheldon McClellan | Miami | Draft Range: Mid second to undrafted
14. Wayne Selden | Kansas | Draft Range: Early second to undrafted
15. Damion Lee | Louisville | Draft Range: Mid second to undrafted
16. Daniel Hamilton | Connecticut | Draft Range: Mid second to undrafted
17. Tim Quarterman | LSU | Draft Range: Mid second to undrafted
18. Thomas Walkup | Stephen F. Austin | Draft Range: Mid second to undrafted
19. Bryn Forbes | Michigan State | Draft Range: Late second to undrafted
20. David Walker | Northeastern | Draft Range: Late second to undrafted
