NBA Finals overreactions: Knicks a team of destiny? Victor Wembanyama sinking the Spurs?

As the NBA Finals shift to New York for Game 3 on Monday at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks have a commanding 2-0 series lead. Put your hand up if you thought the Knicks would win both games in San Antonio against a Spurs team that had just dispatched last season's champs on their floor in seven games. 

That was a test. No rational, reasonable person should have a hand up right now because no one remotely objective predicted the first two games would go down this way. (Knicks fans are obviously exempt from anything requiring them to be rational, reasonable or objective; they are rightly basketball drunk on a historic streak that looks like it will end their team's interminable championship drought. Party on.) Considering how unexpected the events of the first two games have been, it feels like a good time to do some overreactions. 

Knicks are a team of destiny

This is perhaps not so much an overreaction as the wild reality we find ourselves in. Whether you believe in fate or the Basketball Gods or cosmic forces or none of that at all, the Knicks are on an epic run that no one saw coming. They have won 13 games in a row. The last time they lost was April 23. That was 45 days ago. They have the best offensive and defensive ratings in the postseason. Put your hand up if you thought any of that was possible. (Don't you even think about putting your hand up.)

This was a good Knicks team during the regular season. Good, not great. They won the NBA Cup, then hit a cold spell beginning on New Year's Eve during which they lost nine of 11 games. That patch was rough enough that there were reports that the Knicks dangled Karl-Anthony Towns in a desperate attempt to pry Giannis Antetokounmpo away from the Bucks at the trade deadline. The Knicks found their footing after that and started playing considerably better as the regular season funneled toward the playoffs, but even so, they still only broke even against teams that were .500 or better. That was by far the worst mark among the top four seeds in the East and the top five in the West.

And yet, despite struggling against good teams during the regular season, the Knicks have dominated the playoff competition. And now here they are with a stranglehold on the finals, which is even more remarkable when you consider that Jalen Brunson is shooting 33.9% from the field and 23.5% from deep through the first two games of the finals.  

"I think it's our destiny now, the way things have unfolded for the Knicks," Walt "Clyde" Frazier told Yahoo Sports after Game 2. "Every game -- the grit, the resiliency, the resourcefulness. I don't see it ending, because we've got 10 guys that are thriving. (In Game 2), Jalen (Brunson) was mediocre, and somebody steps up. And it's been that way."

It has been that way for well over a month. The stars have aligned.

Karl-Anthony Towns finally got to shine in Game 1 of the NBA Finals -- and take on Victor Wembanyama

John Gonzalez

Karl-Anthony Towns will be Finals MVP

KAT was excellent in Game 1, and he followed that up with another big performance in Game 2. One of the pressing questions coming into this series was how he would fare against Victor Wembanyama. In the Western Conference Finals, Wemby dismantled Chet Holmgren at both ends of the floor. Unlike Holmgren, who finished second behind Wembanyama in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, Towns has not exactly been known as a plus defender. He has, however, played better at that end of the floor this season, and especially in the playoffs. And also unlike Homgren, Towns seemed to welcome the assignment of being the primary defender on Wemby. Sure, Wembanyama put up much better numbers in the second half of Game 2, but Towns has been more than up to the challenge of guarding him.

And while Brunson has struggled offensively (with the exception of the fourth quarter in Game 1), Towns is averaging 19.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4 assists on 55.6/42.9/100 shooting splits. To hear De'Aaron Fox tell it, the Spurs have been powerless to slow him down despite having the first unanimous DPOY in NBA history. 

"Obviously, having somebody like KAT is a difficult cover," Fox said after Game 2. "That's what everybody tries to do, is to pull Vic away from the basket."

At halftime of Game 2, KAT's MVP odds on FanDuel were +600. Midway through the third quarter, they had dropped to +350. As of Sunday morning, that number had plummeted to +165. Brunson is still the favorite at +115, but with how the Spurs have guarded him and how Towns has played so far, it should be KAT. 

Wemby's back-to-back mistakes lost the series for San Antonio

Wembanyama was a big reason why the Spurs clawed their way back from down 14 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2 to tie the proceedings. Then he was the reason they lost the game and will ultimately lose the series. 

After grabbing a rebound and heading up the floor, he threw an inadvisable pass to Stephon Castle, who wasn't ready for it because he never saw it coming. The ball bounced off Castle's back for a turnover. That was the first crucial mistake. The second happened in the immediate aftermath, when Wemby fouled Brunson and sent him to the line for what turned out to be the game-winning free-throw.

"I threw that one away. I messed up," Wembanyama said. "We didn't play great as a team. We needed to win that game. This game was ours. But at this point, it's done. Am I going to regret it? Yes, of course. Am I going to use that to fuel me and to fuel us next game? Absolutely."

No team in NBA history has lost the first two games of the finals on its floor and then recovered to win the title. Wembanyama will think about how that went sideways for a long time. 

Actually, no, Wemby's last shot in Game 2 wasn't great

The only reason Wembanyama and the Spurs even had the opportunity for a game-winning shot was because Brunson missed one of his two free throws after being fouled. But instead of getting something closer to the rim, Wemby once again settled for a mid-range jumper. 

Was it a great shot? No. It was something closer to fine or just OK -- which raises the question of whether there was a better shot to be had when the Spurs were in dire need of him making it and tying the series. Instead, they're down 2-0 with history indicating that they're cooked.  

When asked, Wembanyama said, "Of course I liked the shot," but conceded that "in moments like this, results matter more than process. We just need to score, I need to score." Spoiler: he did not score. Like Wemby, Fox also liked the shot: "He makes that shot nine times out of ten, so I think we had a great possession."

Not to go full Kenny Atkinson here, but what they thought could or should have happened in the hypothetical projection universe did not unfold here in the real world, where the Larry O'Brien Trophy's next owners are being determined. But while we're on numbers and projections of whether that was a good shot for Wembanya to take, we ought to look at the actual data.

Victor Wembanyama by shot area this postseason

That 25% on mid-range shots is the worst in a postseason in the last eight years (minimum 35 attempts). The numbers would suggest that Wemby settling for a mid-range jumper with the Spurs season on the line is the last thing Mitch Johnson should have drawn up. At the very least, it seems like Fox was a wee bit off with his back-of-the-cocktail-napkin math on how often Wembanyama hits that shot. 

The Spurs' young guards are already more valuable than Fox

In fairness to Fox, he was infinitely better in Game 2 than in Game 1. That's a low bar given how bad he was in the first game, and even though he played well in the second outing, the Spurs still lost both at home. 

When the Spurs traded for Fox last season, the idea was to pair Wembanyama with a proven point guard and All-Star who could accelerate the team's growth. A little more than a year later, it increasingly feels as though that was an unnecessary move. The Spurs didn't give up a ton to acquire Fox, and the organization couldn't have known that Castle would take a massive leap forward this season. They also didn't know they would land the second overall pick in last summer's draft, or that the pick would turn into Dylan Harper, who is way ahead of the curve and somehow playing his best basketball in the playoffs at only 20 years old when guys his age with so little experience have no right to do any such thing.

Why it's time for the Spurs to start Dylan Harper over De'Aaron Fox

Sam Quinn

Fox remains a quality ball handler, and when he's on the floor, that's gone a long way to reducing the pressure on Castle, who has been a turnover machine in the postseason without the vet by his side. But Fox never fit neatly into the same timeline as the Spurs' core trio. He'll be 29 in December. Castle and Harper aren't just younger, they're also bigger, stronger and more physical. Cheaper, too. Fox signed a four-year, $221 million contract with the Spurs that kicks in next season. In retrospect, the Spurs could have gotten away without trading for Fox, and at this point, they'd be thrilled if they also didn't have to pay him. That's not so much a knock against Fox as it is a testament to Castle and Harper being this good, this soon. 

It's not going back to San Antonio

Who thinks this series is already over? You can put your hands up now.