Last week, Paul George was shooting up the MVP ladder, jumping from +1800 on the Westgate Superbook board to +700. He's risen again, but incrementally to +600, now that he's missed three straight games and the Thunder have dropped four of five. In an ever-shifting race at the top, it feels, at this moment, more like a two-horse race than ever between Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden, though George still feels to be one huge scoring/win run from putting himself right back in the mix. Here are the MVP rankings as of Tuesday, March 5th.
Ten of the last 15 MVPs have come from the team with the best regular-season record. That's the strongest leg Giannis is standing on right now, and moving forward, I really believe with the preposterous stats James Harden is putting up, the Bucks have to secure the No. 1 seed in the East for Giannis to keep his very slight MVP edge. Losers of two straight, the Bucks are two games up on the Raptors for the league's best record entering Tuesday. Without Harden doing what he's doing, Giannis' stats would be blowing us away: 27 points, 12.6 rebounds, 6 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals per game. No one in NBA history has put up those stats in a single season across the board -- at least since they started keeping track of steals and blocks (Oscar Robertson averaged 30-12-11 in 1961-62). Again, if the Bucks finish as at least the No. 1 seed in the East, if not the best overall record, it will become very difficult to deny Giannis the MVP with that combination of winning and all-time statistical production.
The Rockets have won five straight and are just one game back of Portland/Oklahoma City for the No. 3 seed. Considering the injuries Houston endured, with both Chris Paul and Clint Capela missing significant time, and the way Harden not only kept Houston afloat during that time but actually shot them up the standings, to finish with a top-four seed in the West would be a big feather in Harden's MVP cap. Then, of course, there are Harden's stats, which remain downright silly: 36.7 points, 7.6 assists, 6.6 rebounds and 2.2 steals per game. Like Antetokounmpo, no one in NBA history has put up those stats across the board. This is history vs. history. Differentiating between these two is nearly impossible. For me, it's going to come down to the wins. If Houston finishes in the top four, the pressure will be on Giannis to keep the Bucks on top.
As stated up top, George's odds have technically improved, but he's clearly a distant third in this race and it would take a big-time run on his part, and the Thunder's part, for him to become a truly viable MVP threat. The last time we checked in on this race, P.G. was coming off a 45-point performance in which he hit a thrilling game-winner over Rudy Gobert to down the Jazz. That memory turned into four straight Thunder losses, three of which George missed with a sore shoulder. George has been nothing short of incredible this season, but barring something unforeseen, it likely won't be enough to catch Harden and/or Giannis.
