Thunder center Chet Holmgren is coming off a productive performance in Oklahoma City's win in Game 3, finishing with 14 points, three rebounds and one assist. He went 5-of-7 from the field and is connecting on 50% of his field goals through three games in the Western Conference Finals. Holmgren's over/under for total points + rebounds on Sunday is 21.5, and his effectiveness from the field could make him a focal point for NBA props bets for Game 4 of Thunder vs. Spurs at 8 p.m. ET. The SportsLine Projection Model is predicting Holmgreen to exceed his point + rebound total against the Thunder, projecting him to finish with 25 points + rebounds on average.
Meanwhile, SportsLine NBA expert Mike Barner is backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to finish with over 7.5 assists in Game 4. Before locking in Sunday's NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the model and team of experts at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Top NBA player prop picks for Thunder vs. Spurs
- Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Over 21.5 points + rebounds
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 7.5 assists
- Cason Wallace, Thunder, Over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists
Chet Holmgren, Thunder, Over 21.5 points + rebounds
Holmgren seems to have found his rhythm offensively after scoring just eight points against San Antonio in Game 1. He's recorded double-digit points in each of the past two games, and connected on 71.4% of his field goals in Game 3. Holmgren has also pulled down eight or more rebounds in six of his past eight playoff appearances, and SportsLine's projection model expects he'll finish with 25 points + rebounds on average in Game 4.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 7.5 assists
"The Spurs have been trying to force the ball out of the hands of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander," SportsLine NBA expert Mike Barner noted. "Not only do they have good defensive guards to throw at him, but they have also been sending double teams his way. That has forced Gilgeous-Alexander to look for his teammates more. The result has been him recording at least nine assists in all three games of this series. In two of them, he had 12 assists each. Expect the Spurs to continue to deploy a similar strategy, making this over appealing."
Cason Wallace, Thunder, Over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists
"Jalen Williams (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out Game 3," Barner pointed out. "I think he sits again, given how many issues he has had with his hamstrings this season. To complicate matters for the Thunder, Ajay Mitchell (calf) won't play. Cason Wallace has already had a productive series, posting at least 14 combined points, rebounds and assists in all three games. He should play close to 30 minutes Sunday, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to hit this over."
