NBA player props, picks, odds: Back Gilgeous-Alexander with Wednesday best bets

SportsLine's proven computer model locked in its top NBA props for Wednesday, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points

By Blake Von Hagen

Jan 21, 2026 at 12:58 pm ET • 3 min read

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Oklahoma City is the favorite to win another NBA championship this season, leading the league with a 36-8 record. The Thunder are powered by reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.8 points per game. He has an over/under of 31.5 points for Wednesday night's game against Milwaukee, which is currently outside the playoff picture. SportsLine's proven computer model is backing Gilgeous-Alexander to go Over his point total in this matchup, and it has also locked in several other NBA player props.

Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Wednesday's NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the model can help you find value to add to your Wednesday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the DraftKings promo code, where new users can bet $5, and get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of at least $5 wins:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 35-15 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Best NBA player prop picks on Wednesday:

Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, Over 29.5 points
Andrew Nembhard, Pacers, Under 7.5 assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 31.5 points

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Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers, Over 29.5 points (-120)

Mitchell continues to shoot at a high volume with teammate Darius Garland sidelined due to a toe injury. Garland is the team's second-leading scorer at 18 points per game, leaving Mitchell as the obvious scoring option at 29 points per game. He scored 35 points against the 76ers last Wednesday before shooting 4-of-13 on Friday and 5-of-18 on Monday. Mitchell is primed to bounce back against Charlotte in a high-scoring game on Wednesday night, with the model projecting 32.5 points for Cleveland's superstar.

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Andrew Nembhard, Pacers, Under 7.5 assists (-120)

The Pacers are struggling mightily on offense, ranking last among NBA teams in field-goal percentage (44.3%). They had their worst offensive output of the season on Saturday in a 121-78 loss to Detroit before turning the ball over 24 times in a loss to Philadelphia on Monday. Nembhard is having to take more shots than last season, which has led to him averaging 7.1 assists. He had just five assists against the 76ers, and the model has him finishing with 6.5 assists against Boston on Wednesday.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, Over 31.5 points (-115)

Gilgeous-Alexander is in line for the NBA MVP award this season, averaging 31.8 points, 6.2 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game. He scored 39 points against Miami on Saturday before scoring 30 points in the blowout win over Cleveland on Monday. The 27-year-old could need a high-volume outing on Wednesday, as both Alex Caruso (groin) and Jaylin Williams (glute) left Monday's game. Caruso has been ruled out, while Williams is questionable. Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) are both out as well. This is projected to be a single-digit game, which is one reason why the model has Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 35.5 points.

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