NBA player props, picks, odds: Back Jamal Murray with Thursday best bets

SportsLine's proven computer model locked in its top NBA props for Thursday, including Jamal Murray over 27.5 points

By Ryan Wooden

Jan 22, 2026 at 10:28 am ET • 3 min read

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With Nikola Jokic (knee) out, Jamal Murray has been the focal point of the Denver Nuggets offense, and he'll look to keep the franchise afloat again on Thursday on the road against the Washington Wizards. Murray has averaged 30.8 points since returning to the lineup on Jan. 13, and has scored 28 points or more in four of five games. However, the latest NBA player prop odds list his over/under for total points tonight at 27.5, with BetMGM and Fanatics Sportsbook both offering a -110 payout. The SportsLine Projection Model is predicting Murray scores 29.4 points on average, and includes the Over among its NBA best bets on Thursday.

Targeting NBA player props will be a popular way to approach Thursday's NBA betting at online sports betting sites. With NBA odds available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, the model can help you find value to add to your Thursday NBA picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the DraftKings promo code, where new users can bet $5, and get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of at least $5 wins:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 35-15 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Best NBA player prop picks on Thursday:

Jamal Murray, Nuggets, Over 27.5 points
Joel Embiid, 76ers, Under 7.5 rebounds
LaMelo Ball, Hornets, Over 6.5 assists

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Jamal Murray, Nuggets, Over 27.5 points (-113)

Jokic exited the lineup on Dec. 29 and is expected to be out until at least February, so Murray has become the dominant offensive presence in Denver. He's averaging 28.7 points and 8.8 assists since that point and has been shooting 56.0% from the floor and 50.0% from the 3-point line over his last five games. The model predicts that he scores 29.4 points on average and is happily taking the -113 payout from DraftKings.

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Joel Embiid, 76ers, Under 8.5 rebounds (-140)

The 76ers have understandably wrapped the former NBA MVP in bubble wrap this season after he played a combined 58 games in the previous two campaigns. He's only played 23 contests this season, and he's averaging 7.0 rebounds per game while playing as more of a stretch five than ever. Philadelphia will host Houston on Thursday, and the Rockets are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking first in offensive rebound percentage (37.0%) and seventh in defensive rebounding percentage (74.0%). The model predicts that Embiid finishes with 6.4 rebounds on average.

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LaMelo Ball, Hornets, Over 6.5 assists (+125)

The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging a career-low 27.3 minutes per game, and his 19.4 points per outing is the lowest since his rookie season. However, his 7.6 assists per game is slightly above his career average, and his seven assists on Wednesday were the only redeeming element on a 1-for-15 shooting night. Charlotte will take on Orlando tonight, and the Magic are middle of the road defensively (13th in points allowed and defensive rating). The model predicts that Ball finishes with 6.9 assists on average, making this plus-money play a savvy move.

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