NBA playoff picture, standings, projections, magic numbers: Warriors all but clinch 1-seed; Nuggets falling fast

The Warriors sent a message on Tuesday night that when they feel the need, they can still turn it up a few notches higher than anyone else. This particularly goes for the Nuggets, who have now lost three of four to the Warriors this season and are suddenly in danger of falling out of the No. 2 seed that was presumed to be all but locked up for most of the second half. 

What follows is everything you need to know about where things stand entering Wednesday, April 3. Teams are listed in order of current seed, with the projected finishing seed, along with the SportsLine data used to determine that finishing seed, below. This post will continue to update for the remainder of the season as we keep track of these races right down to the wire. 

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 seed all but sealed

With their win over the Nuggets Tuesday night, the Warriors extended their lead in the West to two games and they also have the tiebreaker over Denver, effectively making that lead three games with five to play. You can pretty much lock Golden State into the No. 1 seed. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 1 seed: Three
• Projected seed: No. 1
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder
• Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Denver via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

Fight for No. 2 seed

Not only did Denver lose any realistic shot at the No. 1 seed with its latest loss to the Warriors, it also now finds itself in danger of falling as far as the No. 3 or even No. 4 seed with a tough remaining schedule. Denver only leads Portland and Houston by two games, and the Nuggets still have to play the Blazers two more times. Also, Houston has the tiebreaker over Denver if it were to come to that. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 2 seed: Three
• Projected seed: No. 2
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Spurs
• Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Houston and Golden State; already clinched tiebreaker over Portland

The Rockets moved back into the No. 3 seed with a win over the Kings and Portland being inactive. The Rockets trail the Nuggets by two games in the loss column for the No. 2 seed and they own the tiebreaker over Denver. That is a not a luxury the Rockets have in the race with the Blazers, who have already clinched the tiebreaker over Houston. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 3 seed: Four
• Projected seed: No. 3
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
  
• Tiebreaker: Owns tiebreaker over Denver; already lost tiebreaker to Portland

As mentioned above, Portland fell behind Houston for the No. 3 seed on Monday -- no fault of its own as the Blazers were inactive. Again, the Blazers are still in the hunt for the No. 2 seed as they trail the Nuggets by two games and still have two matchups with them left. They also own the tiebreaker over Houston if both teams were to win out. That said, the Blazers also only lead the No. 5 Jazz by two games in the loss column, and in that case it's the Jazz who own the tiebreaker. 

• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: Three
• Projected seed: No. 4
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Jazz
  
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Houston; currently losing tiebreaker to Jazz via division record; already lost tiebreaker to Nuggets via either head--to-head or division record. 

Entering the 5-8 logjam

Our projections like the Jazz to stay ahead of a crowded field and ultimately secure the No. 5 seed, largely because of their soft remaining schedule and the fact that they own the tiebreaker over the Clippers and the Spurs, the two teams currently just behind them. That said, Utah only has a one-game lead over the No. 6 Clippers. As mentioned above, reaching the No. 4 seed isn't out of the question for Utah. It trails Portland/Houston by two games and it has the tiebreaker over Portland. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 5 seed: Four
• Projected seed: No. 5
• Current first-round matchup: at Blazers
  
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Spurs and Clippers; currently own tiebreaker over Portland via division record; lost tiebreaker to OKC; currently losing tiebreaker with Houston (division leader)

The Clips have a two-game lead in the loss column over both No. 7 San Antonio and No. 8 OKC entering Wednesday -- though the Spurs do have a slight tiebreaker advantage, for now, via a better conference record. They also only trail Utah for the No. 5 seed by one loss, though Utah has the tiebreaker. 

• Magic number to clinch top-six seed: Two
• Projected seed: No. 6
• Current first-round matchup: at Rockets
  
• Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Jazz; currently losing tiebreaker to Spurs via conference record; currently have slim tiebreaker advantage over OKC via conference record

The Spurs are tied in the loss column with OKC but own the tiebreaker. San Antonio has the easiest remaining schedule of the eight Western playoff teams. SportsLine projections have San Antonio edging OKC for the No. 7 seed. 

• Magic number to clinch No. 7 seed: Four
• Projected seed: No. 7
• Current first-round matchup: at Nuggets
  
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Thunder via head to head; currently own tiebreaker over Clippers via conference record; currently own tiebreaker over Blazers via conference record; already lost tiebreaker to Jazz

Remember when the Thunder were looking like a great bet to finish in the top four, if not the top three? Things change fast in the West. The fact that San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over OKC is a big hurdle for the Thunder to climb, and the main reason our projections have them sticking in the No. 8 spot. 

• Projected seed: No. 8
• Current first-round matchup: at Warriors
  
• Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Houston, Portland and Utah; already lost tiebreaker to Spurs; currently losing tiebreaker to Clippers

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Top three seeds pretty set

The Bucks can clinched the No. 1 seed with a Toronto loss Wednesday night. 

• Current first-round matchup: vs. Heat
  

One more Toronto loss, or one more Milwaukee win, and Toronto will have no shot of catching the Bucks and be locked into the No. 2 seed. 

• Current first-round matchup: vs. Nets
  

The Sixers have a four-game lead over Boston and Indiana in the loss column with five games left. 

• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: One
• Projected seed: No. 3
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Pistons
  
• Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Pacers; already lost tiebreaker to Bucks, Raptors and Celtics

Fight for final home-court spot

The Celtics can still technically catch the Sixers for the No. 3 seed, but the more realistic fight for Boston is holding off Indiana for the No. 4 seed. The two teams have identical records entering Wednesday and they play this Friday. Boston has the tiebreaker, but as of now, SportsLine simulations still favor Indiana to end up with the No. 4 seed. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Four
• Projected seed: No. 5 
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Pacers
  
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Sixers; currently own tiebreaker over Indiana via 2-1 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left

The Pacers still control their own destiny to take the No. 4 seed. With four games to play, if they win out -- which would include a win over Boston -- there is no way Boston could catch them. Again, SportsLine projections like Indiana, which has clinched nothing worse than the No. 5 seed, to prevail for the No. 4 seed. 

• Magic number to clinch top-four seed: Four
• Projected seed: No. 4
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Celtics
  
• Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Sixers; currently losing season series with Boston 2-1 with one to play

The final three seeds

This is where things get dicey in the East, with four teams still in the hunt for the final three spots. Detroit is in the best position of the three -- with a one-game lead over Nos. 7 and 8 Brooklyn and Miami, and a two-game lead over Orlando with five games to play. SportsLine gives Detroit a 99.2 percent chance to make the playoffs. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
• Projected seed: No. 6
• Current first-round matchup: at Sixers
  
• Tiebreaker: Currently losing tiebreaker to Miami via Heat being a division leader; already lost tiebreaker to Nets; currently own tiebreaker over Orlando with one matchup remaining

The Nets have a really tough remaining schedule, starting with Milwaukee Wednesday night. They are tied in the loss column with No. 8 Miami and have a one-game lead over No. 9 Orlando. There is a real chance Brooklyn's final game of the season, vs. Miami, becomes a play-in game. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Three
• Projected seed: No. 7
• Current first-round matchup: at Raptors
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Pistons and Magic; trail season series vs. Miami 2-1 with one to play

Miami, which hosts Boston Wednesday night, has a half-game lead over No. 9 Orlando. The Magic own the tiebreaker. This is going to come down to the wire, but our projections have the Heat falling out of the playoffs. 

• Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Four
• Projected seed: No. 9
• Current first-round matchup: at Bucks
• Tiebreaker: Currently own tiebreaker over Detroit and Brooklyn; lost tiebreaker to Orlando
  

Outside Looking In

The Magic, who trail Miami (half-game) and Brooklyn (one game) with four left to play, have a huge opportunity Wednesday night. The Nets play the Bucks and the Heat play the Celtics. There is a good chance both those teams lose. Meanwhile, the Magic play the Knicks. Time to make hay. 

• Projected seed: No. 8
  
• Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Miami; already lost tiebreaker to Nets; currently trail Pistons via 2-1 deficit in season series with one matchup remaining