For a team as good as the Toronto Raptors, drawing the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round has to be a bit of a bummer. Many consider Milwaukee to be the most dangerous lower-seeded team in the East, and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo presents plenty of problems. Before Game 1 on Saturday, here are five things to know:
All eyes on Giannis
For the vast majority of people watching this series, the most intriguing player on the court will be Antetokounmpo. This isn't his first time playing in the playoffs, but it's his first time playing in the playoffs since becoming the fire-breathing monster he is today. Antetokounmpo just finished a regular season for the ages, and he'll obviously be at the top of the Raptors' scouting report.
So, how can Toronto deal with him? Coach Dwane Casey will probably talk about throwing different looks at him and turning him into a scorer rather than a facilitator, but the first part doesn't guarantee success and the second part is much easier said than done. The Raptors need to do everything they can to limit his transition opportunities because there's no way to stop him on the fast break, and they need all five guys on a string when he's running pick-and-rolls.
DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson will probably all spend some time guarding him, and they will all have their hands full. Antetokounmpo can see over all of them, and if he has even a sliver of space to attack the basket, the Bucks have to encourage him to attack aggressively. Once he gets in the paint, he should be able to either score, get fouled or find a wide-open teammate.
DeRozan needs to sustain his improvement
I'm not talking about the moves he added and all the tricks he has to get his shot off; I'm talking about the passing and the defense. When Kyle Lowry was out of the lineup for 21 games, DeMar DeRozan had to step up. Sometimes, that meant 40 points. More often, it meant making the right passes when defenses tried to load up on him. Over the past few years, he has gotten much better when it comes to reading the defense and finding shooters. Over the past couple of months, as the Raptors improved their team defense, DeRozan showed in spurts that he has unrealized potential on that end.
Against the Bucks, it's crucial to keep this going. They're going to try to bother him with length and scrambling help defense. (More on this in a moment.) They're going to try to attack him on the other end. In this series, DeRozan's contributions should not be measured mainly by his points per game, but rather how he handles this pressure and takes on the challenge. If he can limit his mistakes and play solid defense against the forever underrated Khris Middleton, then it will make stopping Milwaukee much easier.
The Bucks are long as hell
It sounds simple and kind of silly, but Milwaukee's entire defensive identity is built around having a bunch of guys with long arms and quick feet. When the Bucks have Rookie of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Middleton and Antetokounmpo on the court, they can switch pretty much everything. They overload and blitz ball-handlers, they create chaos, they keep their hands high, they do whatever they can do take the other teams out of rhythm.
In 2014-15, Milwaukee had the second-best defense in the league playing this way. The year afterward, it regressed to 22nd, perhaps because it lost some of the veterans who tied things together with their communication. This year, it finished 19th, but that doesn't mean it isn't dangerous on that end. As Cleaning the Glass' Ben Falk explained, the Bucks' aggressive style means there's little room for error. If they execute it well, though, Toronto could be in trouble.
The Raptors lost to a Jason Kidd-coached Brooklyn Nets team that played an aggressive style in the first round of the 2014-15 playoffs. The Washington Wizards trapped their ball-handlers when Toronto got swept in the first round the year after that. Last year, strong perimeter defense from the Indiana Pacers turned the Raptors' offense ugly in a seven-game series. If they are to avoid repeating history, they will need to be patient and trust that they can get open 3s and layups as long as they understand where Milwaukee's help is coming from.
There will be lineup intrigue
I have many, many questions about how both teams plan to play, and I suspect that the game plans will change numerous times over the course of the series. Let's start with the Bucks:
- Will Kidd try Antetokounmpo at center? The Greek Freak defies traditional positional designations, and the Bucks could really make Toronto think by using him next to four guards and wings. I tend to think that, since the Raptors are the more talented and deeper team, Milwaukee is incentivized to get creative right from the beginning of the series. Let's get weird.
- What happens to Thon Maker? The 20-year-old has been starting at center, but often only playing 10-12 minutes. That cliche about every possession mattering in the playoffs is actually true, meaning that the Bucks won't give him playing time just for the sake of development. I'm not sure if Kidd will keep him in the starting lineup, but if he does, he'd be making a bet that Maker's ability to hit pick-and-pop jumpers and draw Jonas Valanciunas outside of the paint is worth whatever happens when the rookie is asked to play playoff-caliber defense.
- What's Greg Monroe's role? He has been extremely effective beating up second units this season, and he has functioned much better than last year in the Bucks' team defense. Even though he's their best true big man, it's unclear if he'll survive against Toronto lineups with Ibaka at center, and Kidd has other options with John Henson (who is coming off a thumb injury) and Spencer Hawes.
And now, the Raptors:
- Can Valanciunas dominate? Toronto coach Dwane Casey told ESPN's Zach Lowe that his message to the big man is that he needs to "dominate" on the inside if he wants more minutes. That means getting offensive rebounds and using his soft touch around the basket. You know, like he did in last year's playoffs before getting hurt against the Miami Heat. Valanciunas should get an opportunity to bully the Bucks, but if that's not happening, then the Raptors need to play Serge Ibaka at center as much as possible. As previously mentioned, they've outscored opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka has been on the court without Valanciunas.
- Will Tucker enter the starting lineup? Carroll did a good enough job against Antetokounmpo in the playoffs, but if that becomes untenable, then using Tucker from the opening minute will be the obvious adjustment. Tucker has been Toronto's best perimeter defender since the day he showed up, and he has proven capable of playing smallball 4 as well. Expect to see him closing games.
- Is Norman Powell even going to be in the rotation? He received a few DNP-CDs down the stretch, but he had big moments in the playoffs last year and can help the Raptors if they're trying to match the Bucks' speed, length and athleticism.
These aren't the same old Raptors
Toronto isn't the favorite here just because it has a better record and statistical profile. Since acquiring Ibaka and Tucker, its defense went from mediocre to elite. This is the toughest and most versatile roster the Raptors have ever had, and if their (also elite) offense falls off in the postseason again, they'll be much better equipped to handle it. Everybody knows how much fun the Bucks are and how difficult they are to beat when they're really connected, but if they eliminate this Toronto team, it's a real upset.
