NBA star trade meter: How likely Ja Morant, Anthony Davis and others on the market will move before deadline?

The star trade market finally seems to be moving. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Hawks kicked off deadline season by dealing Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for Corey Kispert and CJ McCollum. On Friday, reports came out indicating that the Memphis Grizzlies are now ready to seriously consider a Ja Morant trade, and multiple suitors are reportedly interested in submitting offers for the former All-Star guard.

Ja Morant landing spots: Five mock trades that send star guard out of Memphis

Sam Quinn

In other words, the wheelings and dealings are no longer hypothetical. Deals are happening, offers are flying, and with less than a month before the bell rings, we can now really take stock of the market heading towards Feb. 5. So let's take a look at some of the biggest names in the rumor mill and assign a likelihood for each to get moved between one and 10.

Lauri Markkanen: 1 out of 10

I think it's fair to say at this point that the ship has sailed here. The Jazz have had countless opportunities to trade Lauri Markkanen. They've never done it. Maybe that's because of the exorbitant price Danny Ainge demands when he trades anyone. Maybe it's because of Markkanen's contract. It's hard to say. 

But the Jazz should feel reasonably confident that they can tank their way into keeping the top-eight protected first-round pick they owe the Thunder now that the Clippers and Hornets are playing well. Memphis and Dallas taking steps back isn't ideal, but so long as the Jazz can get into the No. 6 slot on lottery night, they will have a better than 96% chance of landing in the top eight and keeping the selection. After that, the plan seems to be to try to win next season, and Markkanen will be an important part of that. There seems to be no momentum here now. The Jazz have moved on.

Anthony Davis: 2 out of 10

A Davis trade wasn't exactly certain a few days ago, but it felt likely. Teams were interested. "Every team in the East believes they're an Anthony Davis away from making the finals," one source told The Athletic's Sam Amick. Well, now that Davis has seemingly suffered ligament damage in his hand that will force surgery, that's no longer true. His season may be over. The win-now teams can't justify trading for him at the moment.

Perhaps momentum picks back up over the summer, but it's worth pointing out that one of the primary motivators for moving Davis was to maximize this year's first-round pick, as the Mavericks owe their next four to other teams. Well, now that Davis is hurt, they can do so without trading him. It's possible that they simply decide to tank this year, and then bring Davis and Kyrie Irving back next year and try to win. A deal may eventually come, but one before the deadline seems extremely unlikely. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 2 out of 10

The Bucks won't trade Giannis Antetokounmpo until he either asks for a trade or declines the extension he's eligible for this offseason. Well, the extension isn't even legal until after the deadline, and Antetokounmpo said directly that he will not ask for a trade. So that more or less settles that. Unless something changes between now and Feb. 5, it seems like an Antetokounmpo trade is on hold for the time being.

The Bucks even got a stroke of luck. They just entered the hardest stretch of their schedule, as they are slated to play every Western Conference contender in January, but they got quite a few fortunate injury breaks. Nikola Jokić will presumably miss both Bucks games this month, Austin Reaves sat out on Friday and Anthony Davis will likely miss Dallas' Jan. 25 game. The Bucks have reportedly been active on the trade market seeking improvements. So for the time being, they're buyers. We'll reassess their status as sellers over the summer, assuming Antetokounmpo declines that extension.

LaMelo Ball: 3 out of 10

The Hornets don't need to feel the same urgency to move Ball that the Hawks and Grizzlies felt with their point guards. He's the youngest of the three. They have no pressing financial needs compelling a cap dump. It probably makes sense for everyone involved to play this out and try to make it work. But man, it's weird that the Hornets brought LaMelo Ball off the bench on Thursday.

The idea was reportedly to save more of his minutes so they could come down the stretch. He's dealt with injuries for years now, and he hasn't played more than 30 minutes and 18 seconds since returning from his most recent absence. But he'd been starting in the weeks since he returned, and bringing a young player of his stature off the bench, especially out of the blue, is essentially antagonizing him. That doesn't necessarily mean a trade is coming, but it was a strange decision that frankly didn't help on the court. Ball was great. The Hornets lost by two. They trailed by 10 when Ball first entered the game. This is something to keep an eye on.

Zion Williamson: 5 out of 10

On Friday, Chris Haynes reported that the Pelicans "are disappointing the market in informing teams that Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears will remain with the organization past the Feb. 5 trade deadline." I'm going to be frank here... I don't believe them. Why on Earth is this leaking on a random Friday afternoon four weeks before the deadline? Especially when the Pelicans were in the middle of a nine-game losing streak?

Frankly, the worst team in the West doth protest too much. Queen and Fears are rookies. Jones and Murphy are young, core players at thin positions. Keeping all four of them makes sense. Sticking Williamson in that tweet seems like a way of suggesting that his value is in the same league as theirs. It isn't. If he doesn't get traded, it's not going to be because the eight-win Pelicans declared that he was untouchable a month away from the deadline. It's going to be because nobody wants him. That's what happens to players who miss half of their team's games.

This felt far more like the Pelicans trying to drum up value for a player they probably don't want. Derik Queen has supplanted him in New Orleans. There is no reason to have two undersized, high-usage big men when this team has no rim-protection and a severe shooting deficit. Paying Williamson max money just isn't justifiable anymore. If anything, you could argue that the Pelicans should waive Williamson before he hits 41 games played, which is when the non-guaranteed money on his contract starts to guarantee. He's just not reliable enough to justify his salary.

That non-guaranteed contract makes him an interesting trade candidate for a team trying to dump money. And hey, maybe someone with clean books takes a flyer on him. That's feasible. But this notion that the market is waiting with baited breath for the chance to pay Williamson the max in 2026 is ridiculous. They'll trade him if they can get anything for him. The question is whether there will be any serious offers.

Michael Porter Jr.: 7 out of 10

The Brooklyn Nets traded a premium to regain control of their first-round picks in 2025 and 2026 for the express purpose of tanking. Last year's effort failed. The Suns pick they gave up to get their own landed only two spots below them at No. 10. This year's tank started out swimmingly, but the Nets are 7-7 since the start of December. A lot of that success is coming on defense, but Porter's jump to All-Star status is the easiest way to kill this momentum. He's simply playing too well for a tank. The Nets don't control their own first-round pick next year. It's now or never if the Nets want to make a high lottery pick.

That's probably why they'll ultimately pull the trigger and move Porter to the highest bidder, but the Nets have a history of being fairly stubborn in these matters. They avoided Mikal Bridges offers far longer than anyone expected, only moving him when they got a haul. The same was true of Cam Johnson. They could have moved him in the summer of 2024 to facilitate their tank. They held him for an extra year, won more games than they wanted to, but then managed to trade him for Porter and a very valuable unprotected 2032 first-round pick from Denver. The Nets don't compromise on value. They refuse to make the good trade, even when they're incentivized to do so, rather than waiting for the great one. That's what's keeping this from a 10 out of 10. Still, given how big a market Porter seems to have, it seems likely that someone offers the Nets enough to budge.

Ja Morant: 9 out of 10

The genie's out of the bottle. Once we've reached the seriously considering offers and multiple suitors stage, it means the team has decided to move on, and there's enough of a market to ensure that they're actually able to do so. Morant seems amenable to that. According to ESPN's Michael C. Wright, Morant told players and former coaches "he isn't playing for Memphis anymore" after his early-season suspension, in which he felt alienated from the team because other players were reportedly told to let him work through the issue on his own.

The only holdup here is how little the Hawks got for Young. In theory, Morant should be worth less. He has two years left on his expensive contract. Young has one. Young is at least a decent shooter. Morant is a complete non-shooter. Young comes with none of his off-court concerns. If he's effectively a cap dump, it seems like Morant probably should be too, or perhaps even cost an asset to move.

But a player's trade value isn't objective. It comes down to how much interest he's capable of generating. Washington was the only team known to pursue Young. It seems as though. Morant has a more robust market, meaning Memphis actually has some room to negotiate. The Grizzlies may not get the haul they could have if they'd acted earlier, but it seems like there's going to be enough here to push the Grizzlies towards a needed rebuild.