Nikola Jokić has never wavered on the messaging surrounding his future. He plans to be a Denver Nugget for life. When he declined a possible contract extension last offseason, no one batted an eye because waiting could have earned him more money on his next deal. But once again this offseason, Jokić plans to delay an extension. As he said in Serbian on Monday, "My idea is to sign next summer and stay with Denver for the rest of my career."
Again, this messaging has been consistent. It's just more noticeable now because Jokić is technically on an expiring contract. He has a player option for the 2026-27 season that he can exercise to become an unrestricted free agent. Normally, at least in most cases, teams plan to either extend their stars or trade them under those circumstances to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing.
That the Nuggets do not seem to be exploring trade possibilities -- and justifiably so -- suggests there is a layer of trust in this messaging. If Denver genuinely believed Jokić was leaving, it would probably have to at least consider trades, much as the Milwaukee Bucks ultimately did with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the same contract timeline.
There is no indication at this stage that either side is anticipating or planning for a split. The goings on of the offseason to date certainly lower the already minuscule odds of one coming. The two most desirable cap space destinations next offseason on paper were the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers. Both have spent their money on long-term additions, so it's not as though Jokić would have an easy exit in free agency next offseason.
If the Lakers in particular sensed Jokić was a realistic free-agent target, they likely would have done what they've done in prior offseasons and signed players to one-year deals in order to prioritize retaining 2027 cap space. That they didn't suggests they don't view this as realistic either. There are less desirable suitors out there, like the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers, but neither meaningfully improves his long-term championship hopes.
This doesn't necessarily preclude a move, of course. Having that player option theoretically gives Jokić an inordinate amount of leverage to force a trade to a preferred destination if he wants to. Think Chris Paul using his 2017 free agency to leverage the Los Angeles Clippers into trading him to the Houston Rockets. But that does not appear to be the motivation here.
The primary motivator here is financial, The Athletic reported Monday. Jokić can extend through the 2030-31 season now. If he opts out next summer, he can sign a new five-year deal that takes him through the 2031-32 season. Since that would be his age-37 season, locking in a max salary then while he's still at his peak now obviously makes sense.
There's a potential side benefit to waiting here that could also be in play, though there is no substantial reporting behind it. Waiting creates leverage. The mere threat that Jokić could become disillusioned with the team and walk next summer forces the Nuggets to take steps to ensure he doesn't. In other words, they have to do everything in their power to put a championship-caliber roster around him.
The Nuggets have been a prominent member of the rumor mill this offseason, but for now, no major trades have materialized. The more pertinent story to watch here relates to Peyton Watson's restricted free agency. As of right now, the Nuggets are right around the second apron without Watson accounted for. Signing him to the sort of deal he expects would vault them far above the second apron with a repeat tax payer penalty slapped on top of that huge bill. All told, bringing back Watson without moving one of their five highest-paid players would likely end up creating a payroll that exceeds $400 million with taxes baked in.
Unsurprisingly, this has led to quite a bit of speculation that the Nuggets would attempt to dump the contract of Cam Johnson or Christian Braun in order to retain Watson... or that they might wind up letting Watson go to lower their tax bill. While the Nuggets are reportedly open to sign-and-trade arrangements for Watson, there has also been quite a bit of reporting that the front office is not operating within the sort of financial constraints many assumed.
Whether that's true or not, it's the right message to send. The Nuggets want to scare off possible Watson offer sheets in the hopes of either getting him to agree to a cheaper contract than he wants or to take his one-year, $6.5 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next offseason, when Johnson's contract comes off their books organically and they have a bit more room to pay him. Thus far, no one has given Watson an offer sheet, and some of the cap space teams with the resources to do so have spent their money elsewhere.
All of this comes back to Jokić because he can hold a possible extension over Denver's head as it decides how much it is willing to spend to keep Watson. Whether or not he is actually doing that, we can't say, but even if he isn't doing it directly, the implicit threat exists. Until Jokić puts pen to paper, the Nuggets can't risk making their team worse to save money. Jokić has always said he wants to retire as a Nugget. He's still saying that today. But this is the NBA, so we have no idea what happens tomorrow if the Nuggets have another disappointing postseason.
So strategically, yes, it makes sense for Jokić to wait. He's not just guaranteeing himself more money, but holding Denver's feet to the fire when it comes to building his roster. Players tend not to be especially sympathetic to ownership's tax bill, and frankly, Jokić in particular has little reason to be. Remember, Jokić came into the NBA as a second-round pick earning the minimum, and the best players in the NBA are capped at the maximum salary. It's possible that, on merit, Jokić has been underpaid in literally every season of his NBA career. Stephen Noh's salary model projects Jokić as being worth $78.7 million next season. He'll earn just $59 million.
Between the franchise's valuation, the revenue that has come from the team's success, and the long-term revenue that will come from having employed an NBA icon, Jokić has probably generated tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars in surplus value for the Nuggets. He'd be more than justified in expecting them to invest that surplus into his roster, and if they're not willing to do so, well, they can sweat out another year without an extension.
When the dust settles, Nikola Jokić will almost certainly remain a Denver Nugget. He has given no direct indication to the contrary. Waiting is the path to maximizing his career earnings, and whether it's one he's pursuing directly or not, it's probably the path to maximizing his chance of winning the 2026-27 championship as well.
