We've got another exciting 2024 NBA Cup matchup on Friday's schedule as the Indiana Pacers will host the Miami Heat in an East Group B game as part of the NBA's in-season tournament. Indiana is 5-6 overall and 3-1 at home, while Miami is 4-6 overall and 3-3 on the road. The Pacers won two of three meetings last season. Indiana is 6-5 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while Miami is 2-8 versus the line.
Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Indiana is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Heat vs. Pacers odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 227.5 points. Before entering any Pacers vs. Heat picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 106-70 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Indiana. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Pacers:
- Pacers vs. Heat spread: Pacers -4.5
- Pacers vs. Heat over/under: 227.5 points
- Pacers vs. Heat money line: Pacers: -196, Heat: +164
- Pacers vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Pacers vs. Heat streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Pacers can cover
The Pacers are coming in off a Wednesday defeat to the Orlando Magic, 94-90, but Pascal Siakam dropped 25 points on 8 of 11 shooting, while Bennedict Mathurin had 23 points and 12 boards. Despite the defeat, Indiana showed off its defensive potential in holding Orlando to 94 points, marking the first game of the season in which the Pacers kept their opponent under triple-digits.
An improved defense would simply make Indiana that much more formidable as the offense is already elite. Indiana ranks in the top 10 in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage and assists, with four players averaging at least 16 points. The Pacers are also defending the 3-point line, limiting foes to the third-lowest percentage from beyond the arc in the league. Indiana will also get a bit of a break on Friday as Jimmy Butler (ankle) is out for Miami. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Meanwhile, the Heat fought the good fight in their overtime matchup against the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday but wound up with a 123-121 defeat. Despite the loss, the Heat got a top-tier performance from Tyler Herro, who went 10 for 17 from beyond the arc en route to 40 points plus eight assists and five rebounds. Bam Adebayo was another key player, dropping a double-double on 20 points and 12 rebounds.
Miami has an efficient offense that ranks fifth in 3-point percentage and commits the seventh-fewest turnovers per game. It also creates havoc on the other end, ranking fourth in steals, and forcing the seventh-most turnovers. While Butler is out for the Heat, Indiana is decimated by injury. They've already lost two centers to season-ending Achilles injuries in James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson, while two starters in Andrew Nembhard (knee) and Aaron Nesmith (knee) are sidelined for Friday. See which team to pick here.
How to make Pacers vs. Heat picks
The model has simulated Heat vs. Pacers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Pacers vs. Heat, and which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Pacers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 106-70 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.