A year after the Milwaukee Bucks' big swing, Giannis Antetkounmpo and Damian Lillard have another crack at it. This time, they will enter training camp with less fanfare and much more continuity. They've had about half-a-season with coach Doc Rivers, and they've had a summer to reflect on a season in which the Bucks were never quite the powerhouse they envisioned for more than a week at a time.
There have been changes, but not seismic ones. Milwaukee has effectively replaced starting shooting guard Malik Beasley, pesky point-of-attack defender Patrick Beverley and veteran stretch 4 Jae Crowder with starting shooting guard Gary Trent Jr., pesky point-of-attack defender Delon Wright and veteran stretch 4 Taurean Prince. Trent is a miraculous signing on a minimum contract, but neither he nor the other new guys will force the Bucks to change the way they play.
If everything comes together, Milwaukee could remind everybody why there was so much hoopla around the Giannis-Dame pairing in the first place. Despite the drama and disappointment that defined much of their first year together, lineups that featured Antetokounmpo and Lillard alongside the other two members of the Bucks' core (Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez) were dominant on both ends. Lopez is 36, though, and Middleton had surgery on both of his ankles this offseason. There is a chance that this is the year it all falls apart.
The state of play
Last year: Antetokounmpo called out the equipment manager in January, the Bucks fired their new coach weeks later and his replacement couldn't stop the whole season from feeling underwhelming. Milwaukee started the silliest NBA feud in years, finished 49-33 (No. 6 on offense, No. 19 on defense, per Cleaning The Glass) and, with its franchise player sidelined, was bounced in the first round at the hands of the team on the other side of said feud.
The offseason: Trent, Wright and Prince make the Bucks sturdier in the present. The hope is that 19-year-olds A.J. Johnson and Tyler Smith (drafted Nos. 22 and 33, respectively) will have roles to play in the future. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, who tore his Achilles in May, remains unsigned ... for now.
Best case for 2024-25: Giannis and Dame are the league's most productive duo, the offense is unstoppable and the defense is reliable enough in big moments for the Bucks to win another title with a totally different formula than the one they had last time.
Worst case for 2024-25: Lillard's mildly disappointing first season turns out to be his peak in Milwaukee, both Lopez and Middleton fall off and the Bucks collectively can't stop anybody, so speculative columns about Antetoumpo's future start dropping in December, right in time for his 30th birthday.
The conversation
Bucks believer: I keep thinking about what Doc Rivers told Bill Simmons a few months ago: Lillard barely worked out in the summer of 2023 for fear of an injury getting in the way of a trade, and he told Rivers last season that he'd never been in worse shape as a pro as a result. Given that information, and the injuries that Lillard dealt with during the season, I expect a monster 2024-25 from him. There is no surer bet in the NBA than Lillard bouncing back, and there is no reason to expect anything less than excellence out of these Bucks. If you were excited about the Dame-Giannis two-man game and a potential conference finals matchup with the Boston Celtics a year ago, you should be more excited now, not less.
Bucks skeptic: I don't know, man. I'd probably avoid calling anything related to this team a "sure bet." I hope you're right about Lillard bouncing back, but he's a small, 34-year-old guard, so I'm inclined to wait and see. The Bucks' rim protector was in the same draft class as Roy Hibbert, and their best wing player averaged just 27 minutes last season while sitting out back-to-backs before having two ankle surgeries. (He's going to miss the beginning of the regular season, by the way.) I get the upside, but the downside is extremely real. As far as potential Celtics challengers go, I see them as a much riskier pick than the Knicks or Sixers. There are a couple other teams in the East that I could see finishing with better regular-season records, too.
Bucks believer: This is exactly the sentiment that has been driving me crazy! The Bucks won the championship in 2021, and I bet they would've repeated if not for Middleton's stupid knee injury. The timing of that was just terrible, and the same is true of Giannis' postseason injuries the last two years. It's not just disrespectful to treat this team like it's some sort of wild card; it's downright irrational. No team has won more games than the Bucks in the six years that Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Lopez have been teammates together, and during that time there has been nothing more reliable in the NBA than Milwaukee being an elite team with the three of them on the court. I get the age and injury concerns to some degree, but, uh, have you forgotten who the starting centers for the Knicks and Sixers are? You know Paul George is a year older than Middleton, right?
Bucks skeptic: I do know that, but I also know that George played more than 1,000 more minutes than Middleton last season and didn't need surgery this summer. He's also simply better than Middleton. At this point, Tyrese Maxey might simply be better than Lillard, too, as well as being a decade younger. Beyond that, I like the supporting casts in Philly and New York better than the one in Milwaukee. The Knicks can throw Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart on Boston's stars, and Philadelphia can do the same with George, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin. Middleton isn't that guy anymore on defense, and Trent never has been. You want me to overlook this roster's present-day deficiencies because … they finished first in the East in 2018 and 2019?
Bucks believer: I'm not saying the roster is perfect; I'm saying that any worthwhile conversation about the team has to start with the baseline assumption that it's a championship contender. I can't wait to watch Giannis put together yet another MVP-caliber season, and I'm clearly more bullish than you are about Dame making his eighth All-NBA team. It's crazy that people keep talking about one of the league's best defenders (Lopez) and a guy who dropped 42 points in a playoff game five months ago (Middleton) as if they're washed. As for all the stuff about role players: Trent is a a souped-up version of Beasley, Wright is exactly the kind of guard the Bucks needed and Prince will fit in seamlessly. I trust Bobby Portis more than the bigs the Knicks are bringing off the bench, and, even after a bit of a down year, I trust Pat Connaughton more than the guards the Sixers are bringing off the bench.
Bucks skeptic: Do you trust Portis defensively? I doubt it. And when I watched last year's version of Connaughton turn down 3s he used to take with confidence, I got the impression he didn't even trust himself. Connaughton is not the athlete he used to be, and -- I can't believe you're not the one bringing this guy up -- I'm fairly confident that A.J. Green will end up playing over him. Green is a waaaaaay better shooter, and I don't see much of a difference defensively anymore. The problem is that, even though I like Green, I also see him as emblematic of Milwaukee's big-picture issues: He's a 6-foot-4 shooting specialist who can't match up with big wings and can probably be schemed out of a playoff series. If the Bucks could fuse him with Andre Jackson Jr., though, then they'd really have something.
Bucks believer: I'm sort of surprised you even know Green and Jackson exist, given how dismissive you've been of the bench. Thanks for bringing them up, though, because I can easily envision one or both of them swinging a playoff game. I'm sure Green knows he needs to improve as a passer if he's going to be the connector Milwaukee needs on offense, and I'm sure Jackson knows he needs to earn the coaching staff's trust on offense by consistently making the right reads. Now it's just a matter of them developing the way they need to in between now and the playoffs.
Bucks skeptic: Oh, boy. Again, I like Green. I think Jackson has real upside, too, as long as he turns out to be a halfway decent shooter. But I strongly urge you to lower your short-term expectations for them and the rest of the young Bucks. Of the 30 teams in the league, this is the one least likely to hand out developmental minutes, especially with this particular coach.
Bucks believer: Let me clarify: I can envision one or both of them swinging a playoff game, but I can also envision them both being out of the playoff rotation, mainly because it's not an easy rotation to crack. The starting five is set, Portis will remain the sixth man and, unless a young guy breaks out, I'm assuming that Prince, Wright and Connaughton will have the seventh through ninth spots locked down when the team is at full strength. And when the Bucks are playing games that really matter, Rivers probably won't even go that deep -- by the end of the 2021 championship run, Connaughton and Portis were the only reserves playing real minutes. (This is why it's annoying when people criticize Milwaukee for drafting prospects who can't contribute immediately.)
Bucks skeptic: Hmm, I bet your view of the 2021 Bucks' depth would be different today if they didn't squeak by the severely shorthanded Nets in the second round. Anyway, sure, yeah, I totally get what you're saying: If everybody is healthy, if the older guys all defy their age, if the new guys all thrive and if the Celtics don't have the same good fortune, then it won't matter that Milwaukee hasn't drafted anyone who is viable in a playoff setting since Donte DiVincenzo. If all of that happens, then you're totally right, the Bucks will have a pretty good chance of making the Finals! By definition, though, the best-case scenario is not the likeliest one.
