Thunder vs. Spurs odds, prediction, line, time: 2025 NBA Cup semifinal picks from proven model

The 2025 NBA Cup semifinals unfold on Saturday, and the nightcap features the Oklahoma City Thunder facing the San Antonio Spurs in Las Vegas. The Thunder (24-1) have rolled through virtually every opponent this season, but the Spurs (17-7) upset the Lakers on the road in the quarterfinals and are they should have star Victor Wembanyama (calf, probable) back for this matchup. The winner advances to the finals on Tuesday to play the winner of Knicks vs. Magic. 

Tipoff from T-Mobile Arena is at 9 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Spurs odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 230.5. Before making any Spurs vs. Thunder picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 29-14 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. Also, see the best Underdog Fantasy picks for Lakers vs. Spurs here.

Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

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How to make Thunder vs. Spurs picks

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (230.5 points). These teams have trended to the Over this season, but the expected return of Wembanyama gives San Antonio an elite defensive stopper back who should help it match up better with all of OKC's scoring offense. 

With the total rising from 226.5 to 230.5, the model has found value on the Under as it is projecting 229 combined points. 

The model also says one side of the spread hits 70% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks. 

So who wins Spurs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.