| Tim Duncan and the Spurs will look to secure another NBA Finals trip against the Thunder. (Getty Images) |
Previewing the Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
How They Got Here
San Antonio Spurs: The West's No. 1 seed with a record of 50-16. Beat the Utah Jazz in 4 games in the first round. Beat the Los Angeles Clippers in 4 games in the Western Conference semifinals.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The West's No. 2 seed with a record of 47-19. Beat the Dallas Mavericks in 4 games in the first round. Beat the Los Angeles Lakers in 5 games in the Western Conference semifinals.
Biggest Strength
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs offense is so good in so many ways that it's almost unfair. San Antonio is a machine in every sense of the word when it has the ball: the Spurs play fast without making mistakes, they generate and make good looks, they get scoring from a variety of sources, they score against everyone and they put up points with frightening consistency. San Antonio ranked No. 1 in the league in overall offensive efficiency, No. 1 in field goal percentage and No. 1 in three-point field goal percentage. They do all of that while posting the NBA's second-highest assist rate and its third lowest turnover rate.
The conclusion: San Antonio makes better use of their scoring chances than anyone else in the NBA and wastes fewer possessions than just about everyone else. Not much has changed in the postseason: San Antonio is 8-0 in the 2012 playoffs and won six of the eight games by double digits. The Spurs, led by the same old trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, have won 18 straight games and are now 29-2 since March 21. They even went 2-1 against the Thunder this season even though they played all three games without Ginobili.
Oklahoma City Thunder: This is, without a doubt, a series of strength versus strength. The Thunder boasted the NBA's second best offense during the regular season and possess, by a fraction, the NBA's No. 1 offensive efficiency so far during the postseason. The scoring has been provided by the usual suspects: scoring champ Kevin Durant, All-Star guard Russell Westbrook and super sub James Harden, who emerged against the Mavericks as a killer late-game playmaker. OKC has had a few bumps in the road -- particularly during Games 2 and 3 against the Lakers, when L.A. was able to slow the game down -- but has made up for it with explosive runs and top-shelf closing.
Durant and Westbrook hammer that point home. Both have dealt with a few off-nights shooting the ball during the playoffs but Durant has three postseason game-winners already and Westbrook has, in bursts, shown a game-changing ability unmatched by anyone except LeBron James.
Biggest Weakness
San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio's defense was only ranked No. 11 during the regular season; compared to its offense that counts as a "weakness." What's been remarkable, though, is that the Spurs currently have the No. 3 ranked defense during the playoffs, trailing only the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, two of the top four defenses during the regular season.
While the Jazz and Clippers are generally regarded as weaker competition than what the Thunder faced in the first two rounds, both of those teams entered the postseason with excellent offensive numbers. The Jazz were the NBA's No. 7 offense while the Clippers were No. 4. It's fair to say that Jazz wasn't experienced enough and the Clippers weren't healthy enough to compete with the Spurs, but it also needs to be said that San Antonio succeeded in shutting down both teams. Utah averaged 99.7 points per game during the regular season and maxed out at 92 in the first round. The Clippers averaged 97.5 points per game during the regular season and were held under 93 in three of their four losses in the semifinals.
Against Oklahoma City, the defensive weaknesses come more in individual match-ups rather than the team framework. Kevin Durant's height and shot-creating abilities will create problems for San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Jackson and Danny Green. The Spurs will likely struggle to limit the explosive Russell Westbrook and the silky smooth James Harden in the pick-and-rolls.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder have a meticulously constructed roster that has talent at all five starting positions, the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year, and two or three other solid role players off the bench. Against anyone but the Spurs, they would be winning the depth battle. Against San Antonio, though, OKC has to start asking the questions usually asked of their opponents. Namely, do they have enough auxiliary weapons to keep up?
So far through the postseason, Durant (240 points), Westbrook (217) and Harden (153) have accounted for 67.8 percent of OKC's 900 team points. Meanwhile, Parker (153), Duncan (141) and Ginobili (90) have accounted for 46.9 percent of San Antonio's scoring. OKC's dependency on its Big 3 is by design and by necessity: They want the ball in their best players' hands but there's also not a clear, reliable fourth scoring option outside of forward Serge Ibaka, who has been hit-or-miss during the playoffs. What this means is that the Thunder are far more likely to struggle (relative to the Spurs) in the event that one of their stars has an off night, which are bound to happen over the course of a seven-game series. OKC can survive a 5-for-17 night from Westbrook and beat the Lakers, like they did in Game 2. Winning that way will be infinitely more difficult against San Antonio.
X-Factor
San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio's roster is one giant nose snub at the concept of an X-factor. Pick a name. Just about anyone could qualify on a team where role players actually play their roles, perform consistently and exceed expectations more often than not. The guy to watch against the Thunder is rookie Kawhi Leonard, a versatile, defense-oriented wing who will be tasked with defending Durant but also finds ways to contribute on offense, averaging 8.5 points and 4.9 rebounds while shooting 51.1 percent from the field. The Spurs held Durant to 22.7 points per game during the regular season, more than five points below his league-leading 28.0 average. If those numbers hold, San Antonio should advance with ease.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Ibaka is a truly spectacular shot-block artist and has received All-Defensive First Team recognition this week. He will be put to the test in a big time way in this series. Offensively, he will need to step out and hit the mid-range shot -- something he struggled to do against the Lakers -- to help keep driving lanes open for his teammates. He'll need to rebound consistently on both ends, especially when OKC goes to smaller lineups to counter San Antonio's versatility. And, on defense, he will need to defend Duncan without fouling -- a very difficult task for anyone but especially for a jumpy player like Ibaka -- while also stepping out to help defend a pick-and-roll master in Tony Parker. OKC doesn't expect the world from him but needs some reliable shooting, maximum effort and discipline and his usual marvelous athleticism.
Match-Up Advantage
San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan versus anyone on the planet is a match-up advantage right now. It has been a resurgent season for the ageless big man and his postseason has been even better. Against the Clippers, Duncan averaged 21.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.0 steals and shot 59.4 percent from the field. Ridiculous. Duncan's ability to play elite interior defense while virtually never getting into foul trouble will be particularly useful against the Thunder, who constantly look to attack the basket and get to the foul line.
Without a true low-post scoring to worry about, Duncan should be free to contest forays by Westbrook and Harden forays. Serge Ibaka will do his best to pull Duncan away from the hoop and OKC will look to go small to counter, but that will create problems on the defensive end. One way or another, Duncan will make the Thunder pay.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Westbrook might put up better numbers than Parker but, because of the balanced nature of the San Antonio attack, their overall offensive impacts are likely to be similar. The obvious area, then, where OKC has a major advantage is the volume scoring ability of Durant, who is playing as confidently as he ever has in his still young career. He hasn't yet exploded for the 40+ or even 50+ nights that he is capable of during the postseason, but he's been a steady producer, scoring between 24 points and 31 points in all nine of OKC's games while getting to the free throw line an average of 7.4 times per game.
Durant has become a more efficient player and a more intelligent offensive weapon this season, posting career high shooting and three-point shooting percentages despite playing huge minutes and not missing a regular season game. San Antonio will approach Durant like most teams do: try to keep him off the foul line, make him work for his touches and hope he shoots contested threes whenever possible. Durant never got off against the Spurs during the regular season (his high scoring night was 25 points) but he'll need to win his match-up big-time for OKC to spring the upset.
Will Win If...
San Antonio Spurs: With a deep and experienced roster, a flawless postseason resume, a dominant two-month stretch of play and homecourt advantage, San Antonio should prevail unless they sustain a major injury or have unusually bad luck in late-game situations. San Antonio has lost just four times in the last 77 days; it's just incredibly difficult to imagine them losing four times over the next 12, regardless of the opponent.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder can defy conventional wisdom and beat the Spurs if they get elite performances from Durant, Westbrook and Harden, if they continue to limit their turnovers, if they avoid foul trouble, if they defend the three-point line better than they have all season and if they steal an early series game and then defend homecourt at Chesapeake Energy Arena, where they are now 31-7 this year.
Prediction: Spurs in six.