In the blink of an eye, it looks like the Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of losing one of their main building blocks. Just months ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion the Blazers would re-sign All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge to a five-year deal for around $100 million. Depending on the rumors you believe, Aldridge may have already checked out from the idea of remaining with the Blazers and could be looking to move on to a new chapter in his career.
Blazers general manager Neil Olshey disputed rumors of Aldridge having both feet out the door, saying that the big man told him to just say the rumors aren't true. However, what else is Olshey supposed to say to reporters in this situation? It could be the truth and things could be fine, but that doesn't stop rumors from gaining steam toward reality. Teams around the NBA will jockey for position and cap space to sign Aldridge.
Let's take a look at the scenarios at play and where he might end up being the best fit:
Los Angeles Lakers -- Return to prominence?
The Lakers will be the hottest name pursuing Aldridge in free agency because of their storied history, the talent they're trying to accumulate and the desperation they're showing toward trying to become a preferred destination in the NBA once again. After Dwight Howard left the Lakers, their ability to woo prime free agents in a post-Dr. Jerry Buss world was challenged and has failed so far. They weren't able to be proper suitors for LeBron James while Carmelo Anthony politely rebuked them.
Aldridge isn't the same caliber of free agent as Melo and LeBron, but he would be a huge step in the right direction for the Lakers in their pursuit of contention. The Lakers declining the team option of Jordan Hill would give them roughly $25 million in cap space -- more than enough to offer a max four-year deal to Aldridge. They would also have to renounce the free-agency rights to Carlos Boozer and Jeremy Lin.
But is a core of Jordan Clarkson, D'Angelo Russell, Nick Young, Kobe Bryant, Julius Randle, and Ryan Kelly enough to woo Aldridge? If he does decide to join the Lakers, is that enough to get the team back to the postseason in the crowded Western Conference? Aldridge could want to be the start of bringing prominence back to the Lake Show, but they're still a player or two away here.
San Antonio Spurs -- Willing to sacrifice?
Are the San Antonio Spurs sneakily the favorite to grab Aldridge's services? We know all about the winning culture of the Spurs and how they get their players to sacrifice money and fame for a chance to win titles. For Aldridge to choose them over anybody else, he would be buying into the culture Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford have set forth for this organization. But how do they possibly afford him while still keeping their core together?
This is where it gets tricky for the Spurs. Assuming they bring Kawhi Leonard back at a max-level deal coming off his rookie contract, the Spurs would have somewhere around $16 million of cap space. The problem with that is that cap space goes completely away with the cap holds to free agents Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Marco Belinelli, Cory Joseph and Aron Baynes. There simply isn't any wiggle room for the Spurs to go sign Aldridge at a competitive rate while keeping even half of those free agents.
Joseph is expected to leave to get paid. Baynes and Belinelli are expendable. Ginobili could retire. Duncan is reportedly willing to take a significant pay cut from his $10.3 million salary from last season in order to help the Spurs pursue Aldridge. But Green is expected to command eight figures per season as one of the premiere 3-and-D guys. It's possible the Spurs find discounts in Duncan, Leonard and maybe even Ginobili to open up some space for Aldridge to sign, but he would also need to take a cut in expected pay in order to make it happen.
Or it could lead to the Spurs moving Boris Diaw ($22 million over next three seasons, $10.5 million guaranteed) or Tiago Splitter ($16.75 million over next two seasons) to free up space in the books and on the roster.
Houston Rockets -- Finally a Big Three?
Speaking of tricky finagling of the salary cap, the Rockets are very interested in chasing Aldridge but don't currently have the space to pull it off. That won't stop Daryl Morey from trying to figure it out. With his current players under contract, the Rockets will only have about $7.4 million available and that's not counting the restricted free agency hold for Patrick Beverley. If they don't renounce his rights, we're looking at less than $5 million in cap space.
However, if Morey is dying to get Aldridge and Aldridge is interested, there wouldn't be a need for either Terrence Jones or Donatas Motiejunas on the roster. Finding takers for them without bringing back salary would move them into the range of $12 million cap space. With the drafting of Sam Dekker from Wisconsin, you could theoretically look to move Kostas Papanikolaou and/or Trevor Ariza to clear an additional $4.8 million to $12.9 million in cap space between the two of them.
Those moves would open up the space for Aldridge and the Rockets could just hope for buyout options and minimum veterans to fill out the roster. For Houston, it would be a Big Three with Howard and Aldridge controlling the interior and James Harden leading on the perimeter. It wouldn't take much support alongside those three in order to improve upon their No. 2 seed standing in the West from this past season, but the depth of the rotation would be shaky at best.
New York Knicks -- Get to the East
Does the Knicks' rebuilding project under Phil Jackson have any real legs or is this a slow process? When Carmelo Anthony took the monster five-year deal last summer, it looked like the Knicks were hoping just to gear up with big free-agent signings and hope the city of New York and the gigantic market were enough of a draw. When they took Kristaps Porzingis with the fourth pick in the draft, you started to wonder if they were willing to be more patient with with this process, considering he's a project. But targeting Aldridge in free agency would lean back toward a quicker rebuild.
Assuming the Knicks are comfortable renouncing the rights of all the free agents who helped them have their most embarrassing season in franchise history, the Knicks could have upwards of about $29 million in cap space this summer. That's more than enough for a competitive offer to Aldridge and the hopes of bringing in a wing player like DeMarre Carroll or Danny Green or someone of that versatility and nature. But there isn't much left in the cupboard.
Even if they signed Aldridge and Green with their available cap space, the Knicks would have Jose Calderon, Jerian Grant, Green, Anthony, Aldridge, Kristaps Porzingis, Langston Galloway, Cleanthony Early and Ricky Ledo under contract. They would need some bargain big men in order to round out a decent rotation. Is that good enough to be a playoff team in the East? Possibly. The East is still a very weak conference, even with other teams looking to make improvements.
Aldridge, Melo and company would have to hope the two rookies develop quickly and the jump in salary cap numbers in 2016 afford them the opportunity to sign another major free agent. In terms of fit on the court, Aldridge has never been too keen on playing center, but he's a perfect style of big man in the triangle offense. He could put up one of his best all-around stat lines in his career, but would he be willing to anchor a shaky defense?
Boston Celtics -- Get to Brad Stevens
The Celtics are the other main option in the East and they could be a real player in free agency for either Aldridge or Kevin Love. If it looks like Love is re-signing in Cleveland, Aldridge could become their top priority. There is a lot of odd-fitting depth on the roster, but they need an interior presence in order to start bringing it all together. They're guard heavy with Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Terry Rozier, R.J Hunter and Evan Turner.
Tyler Zeller is their best big man to put next to Aldridge, with Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger providing bench depth. Jae Crowder and James Young are the main wings at the small forward position. The biggest draw here though is getting to be coached by Brad Stevens. He has quickly become one of the sharpest coaches in the NBA and possibly the next great coach in this league. He just needs top talent to game plan around and Aldridge would be the first legitimate option there.
The Celtics have roughly $23 million in cap space, but if they can move an expiring deal in Gerald Wallace ($10.1 million) then they can also go after someone like Robin Lopez and sell Aldridge on still being a power forward next to his big man teammate from Portland. Is that enough to entice Aldridge to an East playoff team?
A Stevens-designed offense around Aldridge could provide similar impressive stat lines that the Knicks could create while giving more wins with a team that already played with some success last season. They could approach having home-court advantage in the first round and building proper experience for the young players. From there, those young developing prospects could be moved to bring another star alongside Aldridge a year from now. Plus, Tommy Heinsohn would routinely compare him to Elvin Hayes.
Dallas Mavericks -- Become the new Dirk?
Who better to learn the final tricks of the mid-range power forward trade from than Dirk Nowitzki? Aldridge going home to Texas means remaining on a playoff team, but with Dallas he would be the new star while being more of a star role player with the Spurs or Rockets. The Mavericks have the flexibility to offer Aldridge a healthy contract. They have about $32 million in cap space to lure Aldridge and still have the room to go after another free agent.
However, they also have cap holds of Tyson Chandler and Monta Ellis to account for. They could renounce Ellis and chase after Danny Green from the Spurs, but then they would be asking Aldridge to be the de facto center. They could try to clear enough space by moving Raymond Felton and hope Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan woul both sign in Dallas. But that would move (most likely) Dirk to a sixth man role and they would have almost nothing to offer up in the backcourt.
The Mavericks are one of the favorites to lure Aldridge, especially after their successful venture in convincing Chandler Parsons to leave the Rockets last summer. Beating Houston out for Aldridge would add to the Morey-Mark Cuban feud, but would it lead to the Mavs being deep enough to still be a definite playoff team in a Western Conference that has the Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, and Utah Jazz knocking on the playoff door?
Portland Trail Blazers -- Staying home
Of course, Aldridge could always stay in Portland and keep the momentum going. It's tough to know what direction this team is going, especially after their moves around draft night when they sent Nicolas Batum to Charlotte for Noah Vonleh and Gerald Henderson, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Steve Blake to Brooklyn for Mason Plumlee and Pat Connaughton. And we still don't know what they'll do with Arron Afflalo and Wesley Matthews.
The Portland cap situation is they potentially have about $45 million in cap space. That sounds sexier than it is before the bar closes. That doesn't account for the cap holds of Aldridge, Afflalo, Matthews, Lopez and Dorell Wright nor the nonguaranteed deal to Chris Kaman. In reality, they don't really have cap space unless they're anticipating losing everybody on the table. Here's what their potential depth chart looks like:
PG: Damian Lillard
SG: C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe, Pat Connaughton
SF: Gerald Henderson
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, Noah Vonleh
C: Mason Plumlee, Meyers Leonard
With a re-signed Aldridge, they would still be able to go after a free-agent wing or re-sign Matthews (if they trust his health moving forward). Aldridge has blossomed under Terry Stotts and his offense, taking his game to a higher level. With the continued development of Lillard and him taking another leap, he has an All-Star guard by his side and one he can lean on to carry the team for large stretches.
The question goes back to whether you believe the rumors about Aldridge being on his way out the door. If he wants to sacrifice some personal fame and money, moving to Texas to join the Spurs, Rockets or Mavs is the call. If he wants to get into the biggest spotlight possible, he'll try to rescue one of the most storied franchises in league history by signing with the Lakers, Knicks or Celtics. Or if he wants to keep going with what he started, he'll remain in Portland.
The Spurs, Celtics, Knicks and Blazers are probably the best fits in terms of his offense. The Rockets, Celtics, Blazers and Spurs would probably be the best fit for his overall game. We're about to find out where Aldridge's priorities fall in this next stage of his career.
