Shedeur Sanders NFL Draft 2025: When will the Colorado QB be picked vs. when should he be picked?

I don't remember a more enigmatic, polarizing, mostly perceived-to-be top quarterback prospect than Colorado's Shedeur Sanders. Some draft analysts adore him. Others firmly believe he belongs on the second day of the draft. And after the season, we've hardly seen or heard from him. 

No participation at the East-West Shrine Bowl. No workout at the NFL Scouting Combine. Just one mandatory press conference in Indianapolis. That's it. 

It's essentially impossible to predict where Sanders will be selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Or will he have to wait until the second round to hear his name called?

There are still three clubs with distinct quarterback vacancies -- the Titans, Giants, and Steelers. Others with conceivably impending quarterback vacancies include the Jets and Saints, and there's typically a team -- sometimes two -- that secretly has plans to upgrade the position earlier than everyone expects. 

And if we look at the history of the drafting quarterbacks, it's been a position that is selected earlier than any other on the field, even if a prospect is clearly flawed.

In nine of the last 10 years, the average draft position for the first three quarterbacks is pick No. 12. That suggests even the most adamant Sanders naysayers shouldn't be shocked when he's off the board somewhere in the top half of this first round. Heck, then there's the Steelers, at pick No. 21, who feel like a Sanders backstop. 

But within the last decade (in 2022), the first three quarterbacks had an average draft position of 60. Kenny Pickett was the only first-round pick (at No. 20 overall, ironically to the Steelers), and then the next passers weren't selected until the third round. 

While the historical odds indicate predicting Sanders (and Co.) will be picked earlier is the smart choice, Sanders himself labeled as a marquee prospect at or near the very top of this class hints at it resembling 2022 more than any other.

Shedeur Sanders NFL Draft 2025: Full scouting report, pro comparison, landing spots for Deion Sanders' son

Dave Richard

I'm making minor tweaks on my grades now, but Sanders is likely going to finish as about prospect No. 25 to No. 28 for me in this class. Somewhere in that range. Compared to Cam Ward and the six first-round quarterbacks from 2024, I'd rank Sanders last, at No. 8. 

And that is based solely on traits and what the film demonstrated. It's impossible to genuinely know a prospect when you're a member of the media. Any rumors about character and maturity have many potential ulterior motives, and they're almost always passed down through multiple "unknown" sources, the noise they create making the speculation itself essentially irrelevant every year."

It's a totally uncertain variable in what is already a complicated, multi-layered evaluation process. 

I find it most sensible to stick to what I'm genuinely capable of analyzing film, measurables, and metrics. 

Now, I don't actually "grade" for size at the quarterback position, because I believe that past ideologies centered around a quarterback being "too short" for the position are actually concerns about a lack of arm strength, because while not absolute, typically the shorter the quarterback, the weaker the arm. And it's precisely why short quarterbacks -- with sizable arms -- like Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, and Kyler Murray, have been successful despite their lacking stature. 

Anyway, Sanders measured in at 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds at the combine. And while I don't boost or disqualify a quarterback based on size alone, I can't help but feel better about those who have big, thick frames. The more frail quarterbacks -- just like any other position -- at least seem more prone to injuries. 

Because of that, Sanders doesn't pass purely qualitative "size" test. However, I've realized having extra meat on your ribs doesn't guarantee anything on the injury front. The one element at quarterback that does appear to help reduce injury risk -- the ability to elude defenders. Logical enough, right? And, beyond the health factor, it's quite useful to keep drives alive. 

And to me, Sanders looks somewhat slow-footed on film. He's not Drew Bledsoe in the pocket. But by today's NFL standards, he doesn't possess the short-area suddenness and pure speed to run away from highly talented defensive tackles, edge rushers, and linebackers on a regular basis. The numbers bear this out. Sanders' pressure-to-sack rate was 20.1% a season ago after posting a concerningly high 25.1% in 2023. His average time to throw (TTT) of exactly three seconds was tied for the 26th-highest out of 156 qualifiers. If you're an elite athlete and improvisational master, you can throw TTT out the window. Sanders isn't either of those things. 

And, yes, Jayden Daniels' pressure-to-sack rate was 20.2% in his final, Heisman-winning year at LSU, but even Deion would admit Shedeur is not close athletically to Daniels.

That inability to routinely navigate away from pressure is another "strike" against Sanders as a genuinely top-flight quarterback prospect in my estimation. 

"Accurate" would be at the top, in bold letters, of Sanders' draft resume. His adjusted completion percentage of 81.8% ranked third in FBS in 2024 among quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts. The caveat? His average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.1 yards ranked 129th out of 156 qualifiers. 

While that's a clear strength of his on film, it's not C.J. Stroud or Joe Burrow caliber. And while there's no way for me to quantify Sanders' arm strength, I've deemed it only slightly above average. 

Therefore, in a vacuum, Sanders should be selected in the very back portion of the first round, and even a slip to the second wouldn't represent a precipitous fall. But the NFL Draft does not occur inside a vacuum. There are layers upon layers of factors that play into a draft-day decision. All it takes is one team to fall in love with the player and be intrigued, not turned off, by the attention Sanders would indisputably bring to the franchise. 

I'll be mildly surprised if he's a top-6 selection. But I think his gravitational pull is too strong for him to slide deep into Round 1, and I'd be even more shocked if Sanders isn't picked in the first round at all.