The Baltimore Ravens entered the 2024 NFL season with championship aspirations after Lamar Jackson guided them to the AFC Championship Game last year. But it didn't take long for those hopes to begin slipping away.
Baltimore opened the campaign against the Kansas City Chiefs and was seeking revenge for its 17-10 home loss in the conference title game back in January. Jackson threw for 273 yards and ran for 122 while Isaiah Likely made nine catches for 111 yards and a TD, but the Ravens dropped a 27-20 decision.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the setback damaged Baltimore's chances to repeat as AFC North champion. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, had the Ravens winning the division 49.7% of the time following the loss at Kansas City after having given them a 58.8% chance to capture the crown prior to the start of the season.
Something unthinkable occurred in Week 2, as Baltimore squandered a 10-point lead against the offensively challenged Las Vegas Raiders in the fourth quarter and suffered a 26-23 defeat. Two-time NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who ran for a touchdown in his Ravens debut in the season opener, scored again while gaining 84 yards on the ground in the disappointing loss.
As a result of that setback, the model reduced Baltimore's prospects of finishing atop the AFC North at 29%. With the 0-2 start, the Ravens were going on to make the playoffs 55.8% of the time in the model's projections, as opposed to 87.4% in its preseason report.
Disaster almost struck a second straight time for the Ravens last week. The club carried a 22-point lead into the fourth quarter at Dallas and nearly let it slip away, allowing the Cowboys to score three straight touchdowns before escaping with a 28-25 victory.
Even though they're already two games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) in the AFC North, the Ravens' forecast improved with the win. The model now projects Baltimore's chances of winning the division at 40.8% and says the team reaches the postseason 74.4% of the time.
Meanwhile, the Steelers - who enter Week 4 as one of the five remaining undefeated teams in the NFL - have seen their division title projections increase every week. The model gave them an 8.5% chance to win the AFC North prior to the season, but that number has risen steadily with each victory, moving to 28.1% after Week 1, 40.2% following Week 2 and 46.8% as Pittsburgh prepares to face the Indianapolis Colts on the road this weekend.
Like the Ravens, the Cleveland Browns are 1-2, but the model says they win the division a paltry 8.2% of the time. And the winless Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) now have a 4.2% chance after they were at 19.7% in the preseason forecast.
Henry proved he still can be an elite running back in the triumph over Dallas, carrying the ball 25 times for 151 yards while scoring twice. He needs one rushing touchdown to join Marshall Faulk (10), LaDainian Tomlinson (10), Jim Brown and Ricky Watters as the only players in NFL history with at least five in nine consecutive seasons.
Signed to a two-year contract in March after spending the first eight seasons of his NFL career with the Tennessee Titans, Henry is well on his way to his sixth overall 1,000-yard campaign and third in a row. The 30-year-old ranks fifth in the league in rushing through three weeks with 281 yards
The reigning NFL MVP, Jackson rushed for 87 yards in Week 3 to increase his season total to 254 and also ran for a TD as Baltimore outgained Dallas 274-51 on the ground. Henry and Jackson comprise the first pair of teammates with at least 250 rushing yards apiece over the first three games of a season since 1976, when John Cappelletti (315) and Lawrence McCutcheon (298) of the Los Angeles Rams accomplished the feat.
Despite owning a 1-2 record, Baltimore is first in the NFL in total offense with an average of 430.3 yards and third in rushing at 203.3 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens are strong against the run, leading the league with an average of only 50 yards allowed, but dead last in pass defense (291.7 yards allowed).
When the Ravens host the undefeated Buffalo Bills (3-0) on Sunday Night Football, Henry and Jackson can become the first pair of teammates since Warrick Dunn (365) and Michael Vick (333) of the 2006 Atlanta Falcons and fifth in the Super Bowl era with 300 or more rushing yards each over a season's first four contests.
The SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Ravens and Bills this weekend. However, the matchup isn't the one with an A-grade pick based on model simulations for the fourth week of the season. You can find the top-tier pick and all of the other Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.