It is, once again, simply that time of year. The regular season is getting closer and closer with each passing day, and as we always do around these parts when those days come, we are taking a wide-lensed look at the entire league before we start getting into our micro takes once the season begins.
As part of that wide-lensed look, we are using this space over the next few days to compare the two conferences at each and every position, to see which group of teams has the advantage. We'll begin today and offense, and finish up with the defense later this week.
Without further ado...
Quarterback: Advantage AFC
This time last year, we declared the game's most important position a massive advantage for the AFC. But after a season in which Dak Prescott finished second in MVP voting, Brock Purdy followed up his magical rookie run with a sophomore campaign that established himself as a very good quarterback, Jordan Love took a step toward elite status, Jared Goff had one of the best years of his career, Matthew Stafford recaptured top form following his return from injury, Kyler Murray looked strong in his return from a torn ACL, and the conference added the top two picks in the draft (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels), the NFC made things much closer this time around.
And yet, the AFC may still be home to the four or even five best quarterbacks in football. Patrick Mahomes is the clear-cut best player in the NFL. Josh Allen may be a tier behind, but he is also still a tier ahead of everyone else but Mahomes. And it's entirely possible that the next three best guys are Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and C.J. Stroud. At the very least, that trio of players is all in the mix. Throw in guys like Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Anthony Richardson, and the conference just has too much top-tier talent for the NFC to overcome.
Running back: Advantage NFC
With Christian McCaffrey -- a.k.a. the best running back in the NFL -- leading the way, the NFC is pretty clearly the stronger conference at the other backfield spot. Along with CMC, the NFC has Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs (who came over from the AFC), Aaron Jones, James Conner, Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, and even guys like Austin Ekeler (also from the AFC), Brian Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Ty Chandler, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker III, plus rookies like Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, MarShawn Lloyd and Bucky Irving.
There are explosive players like Breece Hall, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, as well as solid starters like James Cook, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon and Isiah Pacheco. Split backfields in Cincinnati (Zach Moss and Chase Brown), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and Tennessee (Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears) carry intrigue as well. But there are more running-back rooms in the AFC where things are extremely unclear and we don't know if there is even one starting-caliber player in the mix (or, in cases like Cleveland, we don't know if the player -- Nick Chubb -- will be able to recapture his elite talent), and combined with the top-end skill, that gives the NFC the edge.
Wide receiver/tight end: Advantage NFC
NFC wide receivers and tight ends actually out-performed their AFC counterparts last year, taking the edge in targets per route run, catch rate, yards per reception, yards per route, explosive catch rate, first downs per target, success rate and drop rate. And the conference added the top three wide receivers in the 2024 NFL Draft in Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, each of whom could have been the clear top receiver in their class in any other year.
With Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown and De'Vonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel and (for now) Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, all 41 receivers on the Packers, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Chris Olave, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and even more at receiver, the NFC is loaded. But the conference also had breakouts at tight end last year in Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride and even Jake Ferguson, who join George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson (when he gets back from his injury) and Dallas Goedert, intriguing talents like Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet, Noah Fant and the two young tight ends in Green Bay, there is just so much for NFC quarterbacks to work with.
Guys like Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper, Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk, Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams and Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown are really good. So, obviously, are Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. But there is not nearly as much depth in the pass-catching department in the AFC as there is in the NFC, so the edge has to go there.
Offensive line: (Very slight) Advantage NFC
When you take a look at our offensive infrastructure rankings from earlier this offseason, you can see that on the whole, things were very close along the offensive line.
The 16 AFC teams had an average offensive line grade of 3.47, while the 16 NFC teams had an average grade of 3.59. Throw in the presence of truly elite tackles like Trent Williams, Penei Sewell, Tristan Wirfs, Christian Darrisaw and Lane Johnson, as well as elite guards like Zack Martin, Tyler Smith, Chris Lindstrom and Landon Dickerson. Then look at some of the injury question marks in the AFC (Miami, New York, Baltimore, Cleveland), some groups coming off down seasons (Kansas City) or going through major shuffles (New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tennessee, Denver, Los Angeles), and it begins to look like the NFC might have a slightly larger edge than it appears on paper -- even with players like Laremy Tunsll, Joe Thuney, Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey, Orlando Brown, Kolton Miller, Rashawn Slater, Dion Dawkins, Tyler Linderbaum, Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio and more on hand.