Kansas City has won 17 of its last 20 games against the Chargers, who have not beaten the Chiefs at home since 2013. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert left last week's loss against Pittsburgh in a walking boot after aggravating an ankle injury, and L.A. now faces the Chiefs on Sunday during the Week 4 NFL schedule. Chargers star linebacker Joey Bosa (hip) could also sit, so Kansas City is an 8.5-point favorite in the Week 4 NFL odds. The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls along with their first three games this season, making them an appealing option when it comes to Week 4 NFL parlay picks.
The Jets (-7 vs. Broncos) and 49ers (-10 vs. Patriots) are the other two teams favored by at least one touchdown in the Week 4 NFL spreads. New York is playing at home on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while Broncos quarterback Bo Nix still does not have a passing touchdown this season. Before you make any Week 4 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 4 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 4 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Chicago Bears (-3) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit against San Francisco last week, taking advantage of a 49ers team that was without several superstars. The Rams opened the season with road losses to the Lions and Cardinals though, and they only have five wins in their last 19 road games.
Meanwhile, Chicago is riding a six-game home winning streak following its season-opening win over the Titans. Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams continues to improve as he gets used to facing NFL defenses, passing for 363 yards and two touchdowns in a loss at Indianapolis last week. Chicago has covered the spread in five of its last six games against NFC teams, and the model has the Bears covering against the Rams in well over 60% of the latest simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 4 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a road underdog that wins outright, defying oddsmakers everywhere. You can only see the model's NFL Week 4 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top Week 4 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 4 NFL best bets from a model on an 187-130 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
