We're three weeks into the 2024 NFL season and, to everybody's surprise, Andy Dalton is the only quarterback in the league that has had a day with over 300 passing yards and three touchdowns. Dalton replaced former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young as Carolina's starting quarterback and promptly led the Panthers to a 36-22 win over the Raiders. The over/under in that contest was 40 points, but Dalton's big day led to a comfortable over. The latest Week 4 NFL totals list the over/under for Panthers vs. Bengals at 47.5, so which side should you target for NFL parlay picks and which NFL point totals should you use for your Week 4 NFL bets? Before you make any Week 4 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. It's also 8-5 on top-rated over/under picks since the start of that season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 4 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL over/under best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 4 NFL total picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 4 NFL total picks
One part of the five-line NFL totals parlay we can reveal: The model says the Over (42) hits in New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. These two NFC South rivals combined to score 65 points when they last met in January and the Saints are averaging 34.3 points per game over the first three weeks of the season. This total is likely diluted by the fact that Atlanta is 3-0 to the Under this season, but it feels like a matter of time until Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts find their rhythm offensively.
Meanwhile, expect the Saints to get back on track after a 12-point outing against the Eagles last week. Alvin Kamara leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (417) and scrimmage touchdowns (5), and he'll be central to offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's game plan. That's a big reason why the model predicts that the over hits in well over 60% of simulations, with the two teams combining to score 52 points on average. See which other NFL over/under parlay picks to make here.
How to parlay Week 4 NFL over/unders
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the over-under is way off, including an A-rated pick that hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 4 best bets and over/under parlay at SportsLine.
So how many points are scored in each game and which over/unders should you include for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 4 NFL total picks from a model on an 187-130 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
Week 4 NFL totals, spreads, schedule
Get Week 4 NFL over/under predictions at SportsLine
Sunday, Sept. 29
Saints at Falcons (-2.5, 42)
Bengals at Panthers (+4.5, 47)
Rams at Bears (-3, 40.5)
Vikings at Packers (-2.5, 43.5)
Jaguars at Texans (-6, 45.5)
Steelers at Colts (+1.5, 40)
Broncos at Jets (-7.5, 39.5)
Eagles at Buccaneers (+1.5, 43)
Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5, 50.5)
Patriots at 49ers (-10.5, 40.5)
Browns at Raiders (+1.5, 37)
Chiefs at Chargers (+7, 40)
Bills at Ravens (-2.5, 46.5)
Monday, Sept. 30
Titans at Dolphins (-1, 36.5)
Seahawks at Lions (-3.5, 46.5)
