2025 NFC East futures: What our projection model says about betting the Eagles, Commanders, Cowboys and Giants

The NFC East title has been anyone's to win from 2007-21, as each of the four resident teams captured the crown at least twice during that 15-year span. The Philadelphia Eagles dominated the division prior to that, finishing first in five of the previous six seasons, and appear to be on their way toward a similar run.

Philadelphia posted a 14-3 record to win the NFC East in 2022 and finished with an identical mark last season to again take the crown. The Eagles have won 13 division titles since the NFC East was formed in 1967 but have a long way to go to catch up to the Dallas Cowboys, who have earned 25.

After routing the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, the Eagles are heavy favorites to win their third division title in four years. They are -140 favorites to finish atop the NFC East. The Washington Commanders (+230), Cowboys (+800) and New York Giants (+3500) are considerable longshots.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's win total and chances to win the division, the NFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at sportsbooks, there is value to be had.

NFC East division futures and model projections

The SportsLine Projection Model believes the Eagles are almost certain to win the NFC East and would consider anything better than -170 odds a value play. Some of the sportsbooks have Philadelphia under that price, but the best (-140) is at DraftKings Sportsbook. That implied probability at -140 is 58.3%, which is below the model's simulation of 63.0%, meaning the Eagles are good value at that number according to the model.

Even though the model is high on the Philadelphia, it does see value with Washington. According to the model, the Commanders are +197 to win the NFC East. All of the sportsbooks have Washington over that price, with the best (+230) being at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Eagles futures

• Win total model projection: 11.3
• Best market win total odds: Under 11.5 (-102, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 87.5% (-700)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -400 (DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 27.8% (+260)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +320 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 35.7% (+180)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +650 (BetMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars)

The model is very high on the Eagles this season, which means there's value to be found. Perhaps the best value, according to the model, is +650 to win the Super Bowl, which can be found at most sportsbooks. The model sees anything above +320 as a positive play. Also, FanDuel has Philadelphia at +320 to win the NFC, while the model thinks that +260 is fair. While -400 on the Eagles to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model's projection of 87.5%, a bettor still has to wager $400 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so.

Washington Commanders futures

• Win total model projection: 10.0
• Best market win total odds: Over 9.5 (-110, FanDuel)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 67.7% (-210)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: -132 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 9.0% (+1011)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +950 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 11.8% (+747)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +1900 (FanDuel)

Considering they finished second in the East last season and advanced all the way to the NFC Championship Game with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, there is value with the Commanders. The model believes anything above +197 to win the division as a positive play, and all of the sportsbooks have Washington at higher odds, with +230 at FanDuel being the best value. In addition, the model has the Commanders at +747 to win the Super Bowl, while the sportsbooks have them at +1600 or higher, with FanDuel's +1900 being the most attractive.

Dallas Cowboys futures

• Win total model projection: 7.3
• Best market win total odds: Under 7.5 (+100, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 14.6% (+585)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +230 (DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 0.5% (+19900)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +3500 (DraftKings)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.2% (+49900)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +7000 (DraftKings)

Things have taken a negative turn for the Cowboys, according to the model. It does not think there is any value in betting on Dallas to make the playoffs, win the NFC or win the Super Bowl. However, one wager worth considering is Under 7.5 wins, which is +100 at BetMGM. The model projects 7.3 wins for the Cowboys.

New York Giants futures

• Win total model projection: 4.5
• Best market win total odds: Under 5.5 (-115, Caesars)
• Model sim% to make playoffs: 0.7% (+14186)
• Best market odds to make playoffs: +820 (FanDuel)
• Model sim% to win NFC: 0.0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win NFC: +10000 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM)
• Model sim% to win Super Bowl: 0.0% (N/A)
• Best market odds to win Super Bowl: +25000 (BetMGM)

The model is completely down on the Giants, even though they addressed their issues at quarterback by bringing in a pair of veterans in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston via free agency and selected Jaxson Dart in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. According to the model, there is no value in betting on New York to make the playoffs, win the NFC or win the Super Bowl. It doesn't even believe a play on the Giants' win total is worthwhile.