2026 NFL playoff picture: Why Falcons will decide who wins NFC South after Buccaneers' win over Panthers
The Buccaneers probably weren't too happy to see the Falcons win on Monday night
By
John Breech
•
2 min read
The race for the NFC South title is officially going to come down to one game: Saints at Falcons. That's right, the division title will be decided by two teams that can't even win the division.
That became a reality on Saturday after the Buccaneers secured a 16-14 win over the Panthers in an NFC South showdown that didn't end up deciding anything. If Carolina won the game, the Panthers would have clinched the division title, but because the Bucs won, the Saints-Falcons game on Sunday will now decide who wins the division.
How is that even possible? That's a great question. Let's answer it.
The Falcons pulled off a shocker Monday night when they beat the Rams, 27-24. The win improved Atlanta's record to 7-9 -- and that's where things get interesting.
Let's take a quick look at the NFC South standings so we can break down why Atlanta's win made such a huge difference in the division title race.
| Team | Overall record | Head-to-head | Conference record |
|---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers | 8-9 | 2-2 (1-1 vs. Falcons, 1-1 vs. Panthers) | 6-6 |
Panthers | 8-9 | 3-1 (2-0 vs. Falcons, 1-1 vs. Buccaneers) | 6-6 |
Falcons | 7-9 | 1-3 (0-2 vs. Panthers, 1-1 vs. Buccaneers) | 6-5 |
If the Falcons beat the Saints, that would create a three-way tie at 8-9. The Panthers would win the division in that scenario due to having the best head-to-head record among all three teams.
That means the Panthers will clinch the division title if the Falcons beat the Saints. On the other hand, the Buccaneers will be cheering hard for the Saints, because Tampa Bay will win the division if New Orleans pulls off a win or tie. In that scenario, the Bucs and Panthers would finish in a two-way tie at 8-9. If that happens, Tampa Bay would win the division thanks to the common-games tiebreaker.
If the Falcons had lost to the Rams on Monday night, then the Buccaneers would have clinched the division title with their Week 18 win over Carolina.
The fact that Baker Mayfield now has to cheer for the Saints is kind of hilarious considering just two months ago, he made it very clear he doesn't like them.
Baker Mayfield on the Saints: “Hasn't exactly been clean play from their part when we play them. Not much else to say besides the fact that I don't like them.”
— SleeperSaints (@SleeperSaints) October 22, 2025
Little motivation doesn’t hurt 🤷♂️
pic.twitter.com/ng5oWYJi9q
The team that ends up winning the NFC South will go into the postseason as the fourth seed and host either the Rams, Seahawks or 49ers in the opening round of the playoffs. Although that might sound like a favorable matchup for one of those three NFC West teams, don't forget: The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks and 49ers this year, while the Panthers beat the Rams.
