2026 NFL divisional round prediction, odds, spread, time: Texans vs. Patriots picks from expert on 56-37 roll

The fifth-seeded Houston Texans will look to extend their winning streak to 10 games when they battle the second-seeded New England Patriots in a 2026 NFL divisional round matchup on Sunday. Houston advanced with a 30-6 win at Pittsburgh, while New England defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card Round. The Texans (12-5), who finished 10-2 against AFC foes this season, have outscored their opponents by 109 points. The Patriots (14-3), who were 9-3 within the conference, have a plus-170 point differential. Houston will be without wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion).

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Houston has won three of the last four meetings with New England. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Patriots odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 40.5. New England is at -174 on the money line (risk $174 to win $100). Before making any Texans vs. Patriots picks, make sure to check out the 2026 NFL Divisional Round predictions from SportsLine NFL expert Bruce Marshall.

For years Vegas-based Bruce Marshall was synonymous with The Gold Sheet, the famed sports betting newsletter. With a background in play-by-play work and sports information while in college, Bruce joined TGS in 1981 when hired by the legendary Mort Olshan and served as executive editor for many years. Marshall now supplies his unique and colorful brand of football and basketball analysis to SportsLine members.

Marshall has crushed his NFL picks, going 56-37-2 (+1494) in his last 95 NFL against the spread picks. Now, Marshall has set his sights on Texans vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Patriots vs. Texans: 

Why the Patriots can win

Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has had an MVP-caliber season for New England. In 17 regular-season games, he threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He had a rating of 113.5. He also rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns. In the Wild Card win over the Chargers, he threw for 268 yards and one touchdown, while rushing 10 times for 66 yards.

Also helping power the offense is rookie running back Treveyon Henderson and veteran back Rhamondre Stevenson. In 17 games, Henderson carried 180 times for 911 yards and nine touchdowns with six explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 69. Stevenson played in 14 games, rushing 130 times for 603 yards and seven touchdowns. Stevenson had seven explosive plays, including a long of 56. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Texans can win

Third-year veteran quarterback C.J. Stroud helps lead the Houston offense. In 14 games during the regular season, he threw for 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also rushed 48 times for 209 yards and one touchdown. In a 26-15 win over San Francisco on Oct. 26, he completed 30 of 39 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.

Among his top targets is tight end Dalton Schultz. The eight-year veteran played in 17 games, catching a career-high 82 passes for 777 yards (9.5 average) and three touchdowns. In a 40-20 win over Arizona on Dec. 14, he caught eight passes for 76 yards and one touchdown. In a 36-29 win over Jacksonville on Nov. 9, he caught seven passes for 53 yards and one touchdown. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Texans vs. Patriots picks

Marshall has analyzed Texans vs. Patriots from every possible angle. He's leaning Under on the point total and has also discovered an X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Texans, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on, all from the expert that is 56-37-2 on his last 95 NFL picks, and find out.