2026 NFL playoff bracket picks, score predictions: 49ers shock Eagles in wild card round, Jaguars stun Bills

I was going to start off here by talking about all the crazy ways that Week 18 ended, but we don't have time for that today, because we're going full speed ahead into the playoffs. 

The NFL just gave us one of the most unpredictable seasons ever and I have a feeling that we're also going to get an unpredictable postseason, so don't be surprised if we get the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Super Bowl. In this upside down NFL season, I'm starting to feel like that's the one ending that would perfectly embody the chaos of the 2025 season. And just so you know, I've already bought my American flag thong so I can match Jaxson De Ville, who I'm assuming will be wearing one at the Super Bowl if the Jags are in it. 

If I've said it once, I've said a thousand times. No mascot wears an American flag thong quite like Jaxson De Ville. 

So can the Jaguars actually get to the Super Bowl? 

There are 12 NFL teams that have never won a Lombardi Trophy and FIVE of them made the playoffs this year: the Bills, Chargers, Texans, Jaguars and Panthers. Out of that group, the Jaguars and Texans have never even been to a Super Bowl. 

Renner's 2026 NFL mock draft 6.0: Raiders, Jets land QBs with top two picks as other teams miss out

Mike Renner

The Bills and Jaguars will be playing each other on Sunday, so at least one fan base is going to go home depressed this weekend. For the love of Marv Levy, I hope it's not Buffalo. I'm not sure how much more that fan base can take. Bills fans already had to deal with losing four straight Super Bowls back in the 1990s and if you throw in a possible loss to the Jaguars on Wild Card Weekend in the one year where the AFC playoff field is wide open, everyone in Buffalo might be spending the rest of their life in therapy.

So who's going to advance this weekend? Glad you asked. To figure out who's going to win in the wild-card round, history says you need to do just two things: Pick against inexperienced quarterbacks and pick against the seventh seeds. 

Since the NFL expanded the playoff field in 2020, the No. 7 seed has gone 1-9, and those nine losses have come by an average of 13.7 points, which isn't great news for the Packers or Chargers. However, that one win did come from the Packers, so maybe I shouldn't count them out just yet. 

And not to pile on those seventh seeds, but road teams have struggled in the wild-card round over the past few years and both of them will be hitting the road. Since the start of the 2021 season, road teams have gone just 5-19 on Wild Card Weekend and two of those road wins came against the Cowboys, who have been choking away playoff games for 30 straight years now, so I'm not sure we should actually count those. 

Playing at home has been huge advantage in the wild-card round over the past four seasons, but three of the six home teams probably shouldn't be feeling too confident heading into the weekend and that's because they all have a quarterback who has never started a playoff game. Since 2002, quarterbacks making their FIRST career playoff start in the WILD-CARD round are 18-43 straight up. This year, the Patriots, Bears and Panthers will all have a QB making his first career playoff start this weekend. 

Will I pick against every quarterback making his first career playoff start? How many road teams do I have losing? Am I going to completely ignore all these trends after making you read through them? Let's get to the picks and find out.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Wild Card Weekend picks

(5) L.A. Rams (12-5) at (4) Carolina (8-9)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

On paper, this is the biggest mismatch of the wild card round. On one side, you have the Rams. They scored the most points in the NFL this year, their quarterback led the league in passing yards and their defense had the sixth-most sacks in the league. That sounds like a Super Bowl contender. 

On the other side, you have the Panthers, who are arguably one of the worst playoff teams in NFL history from a statistical standpoint. They had a point differential of -69, which means their opponents collectively outscored them by 69 points this year. To put that in perspective, that is the fourth-worst number by any playoff team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. 

1. 2010 Seahawks (-97)
2. 2011 Broncos (-81)
3. 2004 Rams (-73)
4. 2025 Panthers (-69)

Also, the Panthers won their division with a losing record, making them just the fifth team in NFL history to win their division with losing record joining the 2010 Seahawks, the 2014 Panthers, the 2020 Commanders and 2022 Buccaneers (The Panthers are the first team ever to make the playoffs TWICE with a losing record, so they've already made history and the game hasn't even kicked off. They're playing with house money). 

I think what I'm trying to say here is that my first instinct was to pick the Rams to win 76-3, but then I remembered one thing: These teams already played this season and the Panthers actually won. 

Back in Week 13, Carolina beat the Rams, 31-28, in a victory that was definitely NOT a fluke. The Rams were leading 21-17 at halftime, but then Bryce Young went off in the second half, going 8 of 9 for 126 yards and two touchdowns. This is Young's first career playoff start and as I've already mentioned, you can't trust any QB making his first career playoff start, but this is arguably the ideal matchup for Young. He has struggled at times this season, but if there's one team he's going to have some confidence against, it's a team that he's already beaten. 

The other thing working in Carolina's favor is the fact that you can run on the Rams. The Los Angeles defense gave up an average of 4.3 yards per carry and if the Panthers can get something close to that out of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, that will allow the Panthers to control the flow of the game. Not only would that allow Carolina to eat up the clock, but it would keep Stafford and the Rams' offense off the field. 

Also, I should mention one last thing: Being one of the worst playoff teams has actually worked out fairly well for those bad teams over the course of NFL history. The only three playoff teams with a worse point differential than the Panthers ALL WON THEIR OPENING ROUND GAME, including the 2010 Seahawks, who beat the Saints in the infamous Beast Quake game. 

Of the four previous division winners that have made the playoffs with a losing record, two of them won in the wild-card round, including the 2014 Panthers. 

Did I just talk myself into picking an upset? I did not, but I do think this game will be much closer than most people are expecting. 

PICK: Rams 27-20 over Panthers
Record picking Rams games this season: 12-5
Record picking Panthers games this season: 8-9

(7) Green Bay (9-7-1) at (2) Chicago (11-6)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

This will mark the second straight year that a playoff game will be streaming on Prime Video and I'm guessing Amazon paid a small fortune -- OK, a large fortune -- for the rights to this game because the NFL gave them arguably the best matchup of the weekend. In related news, my Amazon Prime subscription actually expires on Jan. 12 and I'm only going to renew it if my pick for this game ends up being correct, so I have lot riding on what happens here. Not sure how I'm going to explain to my wife that I canceled our Amazon subscription because I whiffed on the winner of the Bears-Packers game, but I have a week to figure that out. 

Anyway, it's very fitting that these two teams are playing each other, because over the past few weeks, they have only managed to beat each other. 

• The Packers haven't won since beating the Bears in Week 14. Since then, they've lost four straight. 
• The Bears haven't won since beating the Packers in Week 16. Since then, they've lost two straight. 

They've somehow cursed each other and there's now a 50% chance that this is going to end like the 2010 season. That was the last time these two teams met in the playoffs and the winner of the game went on to win the Super Bowl. 

If familiarity breeds contempt, then these two teams hate each other more than any two NFL teams ever, because this is the third time in five weeks that they've faced each other. In my prediction leading up to their first game, I wrote something that still seems to make a lot of sense. 

From my Week 14 Bears-Packers pick, "If the Bears are going to win, they're going to have to be able to run the ball. In 12 games, the Bears are 6-0 this season when they rush for at least 140 yards, but 3-3 when they finish below that number."

The Bears have played exactly five games since I wrote that paragraph: They were held under 140 rushing yards in three of them and they lost all three. On the other hand, they topped 140 rushing yards in two of them and they won both. So they're now 8-0 this season when they top 140 rushing yards and 3-6 when they don't.  

This week, the Bears ability to run the football is going to be even more important because you don't want want to put Caleb Williams in a situation where he has to carry the offense. I'm not saying that Williams can't do it, but I am saying that almost every quarterback making his first career playoff start tends to struggle and Williams is making his first career playoff start. Last year, Bo Nix and Sam Darnold were both making their first career playoff starts in the wild card round and both quarterbacks got blown out. 

The Packers would have pulled off the season sweep if not for a miracle onside kick recovery by the Bears in Week 16 and although Green Bay didn't get the win then, I do think they get the win here, becoming just the second seventh seed ever to pull out a win. 

PICK: Packers 20-17 over Bears
Record picking Packers games this season: 9-7-1
Record picking Bears games this season: 10-7
Record picking Bears-Packers games this season: 1-1

(6) Buffalo (12-5) at (3) Jacksonville (13-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Obviously, I have to start out here by pointing out the fact that this might be Buffalo's best chance ever to win the Super Bowl. As a member of the media, I'm required to mention that. In four of the past five seasons, the Bills have been knocked out of the playoffs by Patrick Mahomes, but he won't be around to do that this year. In 2022, their playoff run was ended by Joe Burrow, but the Bengals used up all their magic for that win because they haven't made the playoffs since. No Burrow. No Mahomes. Not even a Lamar Jackson. 

The path is absolutely there for the Bills to get to the Super Bowl, but first, they're going to have to do something they haven't done in 32 years: Win a playoff game on the road. 

Allen has played four road playoff games in his career and he's gone 0-4 in those games, but wait, it gets worse. The Bills have lost eight straight road playoff games dating back to the 1992 season. The Jaguars DIDN'T EVEN EXIST the last time the Bills won a postseason game on the road. Chipotle didn't exist either, so I'm not even sure where people ate when they were in the mood for fast-casual Mexican food. Think about that for a second: No Bills fan has ever celebrated a road playoff win with a delicious burrito from Chipotle because it hasn't been possible. That hurts my head. Every fan should be able to celebrate a road playoff win at some point in their life with a delicious burrito from Chipotle. 

Not only have the Bills failed to win a playoff game on the road for 32 straight years, but they also got stuck with what might be the worst possible matchup for them in the wild card round. If you want to be able to beat the Bills, you have to be able to run the ball and you have to be able to stop the run. Well, guess who can do that? The Jacksonville Jaguars. 

The Bills had the best rushing attack in the NFL this year with an average of 159.6 yards per game. Only one other team in the NFL even topped 145 yards per game during the regular season. The Bills went 9-0 in games where they rushed for at least 150 yards thanks in large part to their not-so-secret weapon, James Cook. 

So will Cook be able to run the ball on Jacksonville? My guess is no. The Jags finished the season with the TOP RUSHING defense in the NFL. They held 12 of their 17 opponents under 90 rushing yards and only one team (The Chiefs) crossed the 150-yard mark. The Jags surrendered just 85.6 yards per game on the ground. No other team gave up less than 90 yards per game. 

As good as the Jags are at stopping the run, the Bills are the opposite. Buffalo's defense gave up an average of 5.1 yards per carry this year. If you hand the ball off twice against them, you get a first down. That's how bad the Bills are at stopping the run. The Bills gave up the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this year and if Jacksonville can run the ball, that will take a lot of pressure off Trevor Lawrence, who seems to thrive when he's not stuck dealing with all the pressure. 

The Bills have a path to the Super Bowl staring them straight in the face, but instead of circling the wagons this week...

I think they're going to hit a pot hole and crash the wagon.  

PICK: Jaguars 30-27 over Bills
Record picking Bills games this season: 11-6
Record picking Jaguars games this season: 10-7

(6) San Francisco (12-5) at (3) Philadelphia (11-6)

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

If Nick Sirianni could have hand-picked his opponent for this game, the 49ers are the exact team he would have chosen. Oh wait, he did hand-pick his opponent. I have to think that half the reason that Sirianni rested his starters in Week 18 is because he was HOPING to face the 49ers. And now that I'm thinking about it, this might be the first game in NFL playoff history where both coaches are equally satisfied with who they got stuck playing in the wild card because I'm pretty sure Sirianni and Kyle Shanahan both view this as a winnable game. 

This is definitely the most intriguing game of the wild card round and that's mostly because of the fascinating matchup we'll be getting on both sides of the ball. 

On one hand, you have strength vs. strength, which will come in the form of Philadelphia's defense trying to slow down the 49ers' offense. The 49ers averaged 244.5 passing yards per game this year, which was the fifth-highest total in the NFL, but if anyone can slow them down, it's an Eagles defense that surrendered less than 190 yards per game through the air. 

The 49ers got beat up by the Seahawks in Week 18, but San Francisco was missing two key players on offense in All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and receiver Ricky Pearsall. Getting Williams back would be a game-changer for obvious reasons while the return of Pearsall would be huge, because right now, the 49ers don't have anyone who can stretch the field, so you don't really have to respect their deep passing game. If you watched the 49ers lose to Seattle, you may have noticed that the Seahawks were not threatened at all by San Francisco's deep passing game. 

The other big matchup in this game will come with a struggling 49ers defense facing a struggling Eagles offense in a battle of who can be less bad. The Eagles have averaged just 311.8 yards of offense per game this year, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. They can't throw the ball and they've barely been able to run the ball, which is why seven of their games have ended with both teams combining to score 40 points or less. I mean,10-7, 16-9 and 13-12 are actual final scores from some Eagles' game this season. 

If this game turns into a shootout, the Eagles probably aren't going to win. Their 8-0 this season when they hold their opponent to 20 points or less, but just 3-6 when their opponent scores 21 points or more.

I'm going to go ahead and say the 49ers score 21 points or more, but just barely, and I don't feel good about it. 

PICK: 49ers 23-20 over Eagles
Record picking 49ers games this season: 11-6
Record picking Eagles games this season: 9-8

(7) L.A. Chargers (11-6) at (2) New England (14-3)

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)

The last time we saw the Chargers in the playoffs came last season when Justin Herbert had a total meltdown with four interceptions in a 32-12 loss to the Texans. You might not remember this, but that was a 10-6 game with five minutes left in the third quarter. 

Before that loss, the last time we saw the Chargers in the playoffs came after the 2022 season when they blew a 27-0 lead in a playoff loss to Jacksonville. That is not a typo. They were up 27-0 and lost. What I'm trying to say here is that there is no team better at Chargering than the Chargers. I'm not sure if Chargering is technically a word, but it happens so often that it definitely should be. If anyone has a contact at Merriam-Webster, please let them know that we need Chargering added to the dictionary. 

And now, the Chargers have gotten stuck with the dreaded seventh seed. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, that is pretty much the kiss of death. I know I mentioned up top that the seventh seed is 1-9, but it's actually worse when you just look at the AFC. The seventh seed is 0-5 and those losses have come by 13 points per game. 

The Chargers are beat up, they always find a way to lose in the playoffs and I really want to write them off, but I can't do it. The Chargers could certainly win this game and that's mostly because the Patriots haven't proven that they can beat good teams. We can argue about whether strength of schedule matters in the MVP debate, but I do think it matters here. The Patriots just haven't really been tested. 

Yes, they went 14-3, but let's break that down a little more: They went 13-1 against teams that finished below .500, but just 1-2 against teams that finished above .500. If you didn't look at the standings before you started reading, the Chargers finished above .500. And in case you're wondering, the Chargers went 4-3 against teams that finished above .500, so they've actually been tested. 

The Chargers have a solid pass-rush and if they can rattle Drake Maye, the Patriots offense could be in trouble. There were six games this season where Maye got sacked at least three times while also throwing at least one interception and the Patriots went 3-3 in those games. That works in the Chargers' favor because not only did they rank in the top 10 in sacks, but they also had the third-most interceptions in the NFL this season. This is Drake Maye's first career playoff start and I'm sure I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but I don't trust any QB who is making his first career playoff start. 

As for the Chargers, they are beat up on the offensive line, but if there's one team in the playoffs that might not be able to take advantage of that, it's the Patriots, who finished with the seventh-fewest sacks in the NFL this season. 

There is certainly a 50% chance that the Chargers end up Chargering this game, but I'm going to say they somehow pull off the upset and advance to the divisional round for just the second time over the past 10 years. 

PICK: Chargers 27-24 over Patriots
Record picking Chargers games this season: 10-7
Record picking Patriots games this season: 13-4

(5) Houston (12-5) at (4) Pittsburgh (10-7)

Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo, try for free)

For the first time in franchise history, the Texans are playing in a wild card game that WON'T be kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Going into this season, the Texans had played in eight wild card games and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM kicked off in the early Saturday slot. 

The NFL was kind enough to give them a different kickoff time this year, but I'm not sure that's a good thing, because Houston is now in a nightmare time slot where no NFL team has won since October 1991. 

This game is being played on a Monday night in Pittsburgh and let me just tell you, the Steelers never lose Monday night games at home. The team has won 23 straight Monday night home games, dating back to 1991. The Texans DIDN'T EVEN EXIST the last time the Steelers lost a Monday night home game. No one has ever even sent a text message about a Steelers' Monday night home loss, because texting wasn't even invented the last time it happened (As a matter of fact, if Pittsburgh loses and you send a trash-talking text to a friend who's a Steelers fan, you might go down as the first person in human history to text about a Steelers' Monday night home loss). 

On top of this whole Monday night thing, did I mention that the Texans have never won a road playoff game in franchise history? Because the Texans have never won a road playoff game in franchise history (They're 0-6). 

The problem with picking this game is that I feel like the Steelers are the most unpredictable team in the playoff field this year. This team is talented enough to beat anyone, and we saw that during the regular season when they knocked off the Patriots, but they also have a tendency to not show up sometimes. 

That being said, this is the perfect matchup for them, because the only way they're going to win in the postseason is in a defensive slugfest and there's no two teams better suited for a defensive slugfest than Houston and Pittsburgh. The problem is that I'm not sure the Steelers can win a defensive slugfest against the best defense in the NFL. Houston gave up the fewest yards and the second-fewest points this year and the Steelers don't have the offensive firepower to consistently move the ball on the Texans' defense. They will have DK Metcalf back and that will certainly help, but I still don't think the Steelers are going to top the 20-point mark. 

The Texans also might not top 20 points and that's because they've struggled to score on the road. Their offense put up 44 points in a win over the Ravens back in Week 5, but that's the ONLY road game all season where they topped 20 points. 

I could see the Steelers pulling off the upset, but I'm going to put my faith in DeMeco Ryans. The last time we saw Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs came back in January 2022 when he was playing for the Packers in a 13-10 loss to the 49ers. In that game, Rodgers was sacked five times and he threw exactly zero touchdown passes. If you're wondering why that game is pertinent now, it's because Ryans was the 49ers defensive coordinator. 

I think we'll see the Texans defense mostly shut down Rodgers in a defensive slugfest that goes down to the wire. 

PICK: Texans 19-16 over Steelers
Record picking Texans games this season: 11-6
Record picking Steelers games this season: 8-9

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Saints would score exactly 17 points and lose to the Falcons and guess what happened? The Saints scored exactly 17 points and lost to the Falcons. Now, did I know that this game was going to decide the NFC South? Of course, I did. The NFC South being decided by two teams that had already been eliminated from winning the division might have been the most NFC South thing to ever happen in the history of the NFC South. The loss by the Saints clinched a playoff berth for the Panthers. If the Saints had won, then the Buccaneers would have made the playoffs. 

To be honest, the NFL should have just let the NFC South form a super team of the best players in the division and then that team should have gotten the playoff spot, but they didn't do that, and now, we're going to be stuck watching the Panthers. 

Worst pick: After watching the Chiefs play multiple games without Patrick Mahomes, you'd think I would know better than to pick them to actually win a game, but apparently, I didn't learn my lesson, because I picked them to beat the Raiders in Week 18. Yes, the Raiders are bad, but they are not "Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes" bad. And in news that surprised no one, the Chiefs lost. I will now be spending the entire offseason trying to figure out why I picked the Chiefs, so if there's no newsletter from now through August, that's why. 

If you're wondering what newsletter I'm talking about, it's the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and I'm in charge of it. If you want to regularly hear my incessant ramblings, then you can sign up by clicking here. 

Finally, if you're still reading, you might be wondering which teams I've done well picking this year. Here are the final results for the regular season:

Teams I'm 14-3 picking this year (straight up): Raiders, Jets, Titans, Colts
Teams I'm 13-4 picking this year (straight up): Broncos, Patriots, Seahawks, Saints
Longest winning streak: Jets (Five straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Chiefs (6-11), Lions (7-10), Cowboys (7-9-1)
Longest losing streak: Ravens (Six straight games picked incorrectly)  

Picks record

Straight up in Week 18: 9-7
Final 2025 regular-season record SU: 166-105-1

Against the spread in Week 18: 6-10
Final 2025 regular-season record ATS: 129-140-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably on his laptop at Chipotle trying to order an American flag thong off Amazon before his Prime membership expires.