On Sunday night, the NFL will treat its fans to a matchup they've seen quite often over the last several years, as the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Dallas Cowboys on the Week 8 edition of "Sunday Night Football."
But if you're looking to see a familiar game, you might be disappointed. These teams are much different than the ones you're used to. Not just in terms of personnel; but also their performance on the field.
From 2021 through 2023, no team scored more points than Dallas. No team was even close, really. The Cowboys scored 1,506 points -- 117 more than the second-place Bills. Right behind Buffalo, with 1,368 points, were the 49ers. The Kansas City Chiefs gained more yards than NFL team during that three-year span, but the 49ers were in second and the Cowboys were in third. Yards per play? San Francisco first, Dallas fifth. Points per drive? Dallas second, San Francisco fourth. Success rate? 49ers fourth, Cowboys sixth. Expected points added per play (via Tru Media)? Niners tied for first (with the Chiefs), Cowboys tied for third (with the Bills). You get the idea. These were two of the very best offenses in the NFL.
Things haven't been quite as good for either team this year, though the Cowboys' struggles have been considerably more pronounced. The Niners are third in yards per game and ninth in points per game, third in yards per play and seventh in points per drive, sixth in success rate and seventh in EPA per play. In other words: very good, but not THE BEST. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 12th in yards per game and 20th in points per game, 19th in yards per play and 22nd in points per drive, 18th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play. In other words: kinda bad!
When you look at the teams they're putting on the field, it's not necessarily that surprising.
Though their offensive line has been remarkably healthy, the Niners' skill-position players have been anything but. Christian McCaffrey has been out all year. Deebo Samuel has essentially missed two full games. George Kittle and Jauan Jennings each missed one. Brandon Aiyuk just tore his ACL. Jordan Mason left the Week 6 game with an injury. Ricky Pearsall didn't make his season debut until last week. That's how you wind up with Brock Purdy at just a 63.9% completion rate and 9 touchdowns against 7 picks in through Week 7, when in his previous two seasons he completed 68.7% of his passes and threw scores and picks at a pace of 30 and 10 per year.
Many of San Francisco's scoring struggles can be traced to performance in the red zone. The Niners converted 54% of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns in 2022 and 67% of them in 2023. This year, that figure has plummeted to 45.2%, which ranks 27th in the league. Not having McCaffrey -- who had more red-zone rushing touchdowns than any non-quarterback except Derrick Henry over the last two years, more receiving touchdowns than any running back except Jerick McKinnon, and more total red-zone scores than any player in the NFL -- has obviously affected them in a significant way in scoring range.
At least in San Francisco, there are reasons for optimism. The drop-off hasn't been that severe. Samuel should return from his bout with pneumonia, and Jennings from his hip injury. McCaffrey should be back after the bye. The offensive line has been both healthy and excellent so far this year. And we know Kyle Shanahan can scheme his players into open space, even if he hasn't done so as consistently this year as in years past.
For Dallas, there is not nearly as much hope. Sure, the Cowboys also started last season in a funk offensively and then came out like gangbusters after their bye. But there are several notable differences that cast doubt on their ability to do that again.
They for some reason came into the 2023 season determined to run the ball at high volume, and they struggled to do so. They then turned the offense over to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, and things took off from there. But Dallas has already been operating a pass-heavy offense this year, throwing the ball on 65.6% of its plays -- the second-highest pass rate in the NFL. Even if you limit the sample to neutral situations -- first three quarters, game within two scores -- the Cowboys still have the third-highest pass rate in the league. They could ramp things up even further, of course, but there's not as much room for them to do so as there was a year ago.
The Cowboys' offensive line is also in considerably different shape than it was last year. Last year, Tyron Smith was at left tackle and playing some of the best football of his career, even at his advanced age. This year, rookie Tyler Guyton has been one of the worst starting tackles in the league. Last year, Tyler Smith was arguably the single-best guard in the NFL. This year, he has merely been one of the 10 or so best. (That difference matters!) Last year, Zack Martin was still his All-Pro self. This year, Martin looks like a guy who is going to retire at the end of the season.
The only things that are the same in Dallas are that right tackle Terence Steele has been a turn-style, that their running game has been a disaster, that they have no truly reliable passing-game options outside of Lamb and that their scheme and play-calling does not put the players in a position to succeed by creating easy opportunities. Instead, it asks Prescott and Lamb to simply go out and be better than the opposing defense. Last year, they did it. This year, they aren't.
On Sunday night, in particular, San Francisco has a much better chance of getting back in rhythm. The Dallas defense has been a tire fire all season, getting blown off the ball in the run game and repeatedly giving up splash plays against the pass. San Francisco, meanwhile, has not been quite as stingy as in the past, but has been more susceptible to the run than the pass. And the Cowboys can't run the ball. The Niners should get back in gear, to a degree -- even with Aiyuk missing the rest of the season. The Cowboys, not so much.
