What a difference a couple of weeks make. The Minnesota Vikings went from a Super Bowl contending, 14-game winner playing for the NFC North title with the conference's No. 1 seed and a wild-card bye on the line -- before Week 18's 31-9 defeat by the Detroit Lions -- to an early playoff exit because of a 27-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Quarterback Sam Darnold easily played the best football of his seven-year NFL career in 2024, taking advantage of 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy being lost for the year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener. He was originally expected to be a bridge quarterback in the transition from Kirk Cousins, who left for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, when he signed a one-year, $10 million deal to join the Vikings in March. Darnold connected on 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions to post a 102.5 passer rating. He ranked fifth in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes in addition to having the league's sixth best passer rating. Darnold also secured his first Pro Bowl berth.
As good as Darnold had been in 2024, he was just as bad in 2025. Riding a nine-game winning streak, Darnold was awful in those two losses with the most at stake during the season. His completion percentage dropped to 53.1% while throwing for 411 yards with one touchdown and one interception for a 66.4 passer rating. According to ESPN Research, Darnold's off-target throws jumped to 30% in that stretch after being 12% in the previous 16 games. Darnold took 11 sacks in the two games, including a playoff-record-tying nine versus the Rams. An untimely Darnold interception and his momentum-killing fumble that was returned for a touchdown played a major part in a 24-3 halftime deficit to the Rams.
A deep Vikings playoff run with a strong showing by Darnold might have put him in a position to practically name his own price along the lines of Jordan Love with the Green Bay Packers. Love outplayed 2023 NFL MVP runner-up Dak Prescott in Green Bay's shocking upset of the NFC's No. 2-seeded Dallas Cowboys as the seventh seed and Brock Purdy, another MVP finalist, in a divisional round loss to the eventual NFC champion San Francisco 49ers last season. Coupled with a strong second half of the 2023 regular season, Love was able to command a four-year, $220 million contract extension, averaging $55 million per year, from the Packers in late July after his first year as a starter. The deal has $160.3 million in guarantees where $100.8 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
Darnold would have had a good chance to become the 10th quarterback in the $50 million-or-more-per-year club from the Vikings or some other team. The 10 highest-paid quarterbacks have contracts averaging $52.579 million per year with $191,493,121 in guarantees, of which $123,753,021 is fully guaranteed. The average contract length of these deals is five years. Trading J.J. McCarthy to a quarterback-needy team after making a substantial long-term commitment to Darnold likely would have been given serious consideration.
Both things seemingly are out the window because of how Darnold and Vikings ended the season. Sticking with the original plan where McCarthy would assume the quarterback mantle in 2025 if he didn't take over at some point this season is a lot more likely, although Darnold returning on a franchise tag is still a possibility.
The non-exclusive quarterback franchise tag, which would entitle Minnesota to two first-round picks from the signing team on an unmatched offer sheet, projects to 14.413% of the 2025 salary cap. This percentage is down from 14.997% of the 2024 salary cap. Teams reportedly have been planning for a 2025 salary cap in the $265 million to $275 million range on internal projections. The quarterback tag number should be $39.637 million with a $275 million 2025 salary cap.
The Vikings will able to accommodate a Darnold franchise tag. Depending upon where the 2025 salary cap is set, the Vikings could have upward to $65 million of cap room before factoring a decision on him into the equation.
There's a possibility that the Vikings wouldn't get a 2026 compensatory draft pick by letting Darnold walk in free agency. It would depend on how aggressive the Vikings are in signing free agents. Because of this, using a franchise tag to trade Darnold isn't out of the question either.
The last time it happened with a quarterback was Matt Cassel in 2009. The New England Patriots traded Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2009 second-round pick (34th overall). Cassel played surprisingly well after future first ballot Hall of Famer Tom Brady tore his left ACL and MCL in the 2008 regular-season opener. The 2005 seventh-round pick only had 39 career pass attempts when Brady got hurt.
Darnold remains the top quarterback with an expiring contract despite his closing statement. Two alarming games aren't going to erase Darnold's breakout 2024 season.
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell somewhat defended Darnold after the Rams game. "I just want to say it's very important we all think about Sam's body of work, what he was able to do this year, when not many people thought he would be able to lead a team to 14 wins, which is rare," O'Connell said. "The way he came in, committed himself to just a daily process to be the best version of himself. It did not work out in the end. I think Sam would be the first one to tell you. Could he have played better tonight? I'm sure he would tell you he could have. Could I have coached better? I promise you I could have."
There are some parallels between 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield and Darnold, who was 2018's third overall pick. Mayfield resurrected his career in 2023 on a one-year, $4 million prove-it deal (worth up to $8.5 million through incentives) from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, replacing Brady, who retired.
Unlike Darnold, Mayfield played his best football in the postseason. The Buccaneers advanced to the divisional playoffs for just the third time in 21 years with a wild-card game win over the Philadelphia Eagles before losing to the Lions. He became the first Buccaneers quarterback to ever throw for 300-plus yards and at least three touchdowns in a playoff game, which he did in both contests.
Mayfield returned to the Buccaneers in March on a three-year, $100 million contract, averaging $33,333,333 per year, worth a maximum of $115 million through incentives. There are $50 million in guarantees with $40 million fully guaranteed at signing.
The deal was structured in a team-friendly manner. Mayfield's first year or 2024 salary cap number was $6.9 million. His fully guaranteed $28.875 million 2024 roster bonus is being treated like signing bonus for salary cap purposes. This $28.875 million is prorated at $5.775 million annually through 2028 because 2027 and 2028 contract years automatically voiding on the 23rd day before the 2027 league year starts were included in the deal. There's $30 million in the first year of Mayfield's contract, which is $8.301 million less than the 2024 quarterback franchise tender.
Mayfield's 2025 cap number jumps to $35.775 million. Had Mayfield regressed badly this season, the Buccaneers might have exited the deal after one season. That would create $33.1 million of dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster, if the Buccaneers released Mayfield in a conventional manner because $10 million of Mayfield's $30 million 2025 base salary was fully guaranteed at signing. A release would have to be before the fifth day of the 2025 league year (March 16) when another $10 million of the 2025 base salary that's guaranteed for injury becomes fully guaranteed.
The Vikings might be intrigued by a Mayfield-type deal with a modest 2025 cap number and several million less than the 2025 quarterback franchise tag for Darnold because McCarthy is essentially a rookie, who is an unknown quantity. Darnold's free agent market being softer than expected would probably be necessary.
Darnold surely has his sights set higher than Mayfield's deal. The average salary for starting quarterbacks in 2024, excluding those on rookie contracts, is $40,887,398 per year, according to NFLPA data. Overall, Darnold was much better than average this season. He is the NFL's lowest-paid starting quarterback who isn't on a rookie contract this season when taking into account Russell Wilson is making $39 million because of the salary guarantee from his previous contract with the Denver Broncos. Although the New York Giants released Daniel Jones in late November, he's considered the starting quarterback in this analysis because he took more than twice as many snaps as any of the team's other passers.
Playing well in the regular season while coming up short in the playoffs is reminiscent of what Cousins did during his six-year tenure with Vikings. Cousins did have a longer track record of production than Darnold. The Vikings only won one playoff game in two postseason appearances with Cousins.
Darnold's 2024 season compares favorably to Cousins' 17-game averages of a 67.9 completion percentage, 4,494 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 100.9 passer rating. Cousins' only Pro Bowl selection on the original ballot was in 2022. He was a replacement three other times.
The Vikings were interested in retaining Cousins. The plan to select a quarterback high in the 2024 draft and a disagreement over contract guarantees (amount and structure) prompted Cousins to explore his options.
Darnold targeting a deal in the same neighborhood as Cousins' wouldn't come as a surprise. A torn right Achilles during the middle of the 2023 season didn't dissuade the Falcons from signing Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract, averaging $45 million per year with $100 million of guarantees, where $90 million was fully guaranteed at signing, last March in free agency. The Vikings would certainly pass on Darnold, who turns 28 in June, with a similar demand even though he is healthy and nearly nine years younger than Cousins.
Darnold's reasonable best case with the Vikings losing the NFC Championship game for the fourth time this century, probably would have approximated the $52.579 million average of the 10 highest-paid quarterbacks. Mayfield's team-friendly $100 million over three years, averaging $33,333,333 per year, is likely his worst case. The midpoint between the two is essentially $43 million per year.
Darnold has two big things in his favor despite ending the season on a sour note. He's the best quarterback with an expiring contract and the upcoming quarterback draft class is a lot weaker than the 2024 draft class. Six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks last year. There are only two quarterbacks, Colorado's Shadeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward, who are expected to be first-round picks this year.
Darnold's experiences when entering the NFL with the New York Jets and on the Carolina Panthers in 2021 and 2022 could influence his decision-making as a free agent. Neither one of those situations were conducive to quarterback success. After demonstrating he can thrive with a strong surrounding cast of skill players and a dynamic play caller this season, it wouldn't be surprising for Darnold to place a premium on trying to replicate some semblance of those elements with another team rather than going to the highest bidder.
If maximizing income isn't the overriding consideration, Derek Carr could become an important data point. Carr received a four-year, $150 million deal, averaging $37.5 million per year, from the New Orleans Saints in March 2023 with $100 million in guarantees, where $60 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
The structure of Carr's deal would likely be an issue. It's a backloaded contract. Carr has $30 million in each of the first two years, 2023 and 2024, for a total of $60 million.
It would be a two-year deal for $70 million if Carr is let go in the coming weeks, which is a distinct possibility, because his injury-guaranteed $10 million fifth day of the 2025 league roster bonus (March 16) became completely secure on the third day of the 2024 league year. Carr's injury-guaranteed $30 million 2025 base salary is fully guaranteed March 14 on the third day of the 2025 league year.
Realistically, Carr's contract is $100 million over three years for $33,333,333 per year at best because there's $50 million in 2026 to artificially inflate the average to $37.5 million per year. The deal doesn't contain any incentives or salary escalators.
At a minimum, Darnold would want a neutral $37.5 million-per-year deal that's neither frontloaded nor backloaded. There would need to be at least $75 million and $112.5 million of money, respectively, through the second (2026) and third contract years (2027). The first two years (2025 and 2026) would likely need to be fully guaranteed at signing as well.
Having a target or asking price is one thing. Getting a team to meet contract demands can be another. It remains to be seen whether the two will be one in the same for Darnold.
