You'd be hard-pressed to find two quarterbacks who are bigger topics for debate, or lightning rods for criticism, than Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league and Purdy can follow suit with an extension this offseason.
Both will share the field on Sunday in Miami in a game between two underachieving teams with their seasons on life support. I can already hear the echoes on social media of "game manager" and "system quarterback" as critics look to tear down the pair.
These are two different discussions, mind you. In my opinion, a "game manager" is about a quarterback's style of play and how they are coached up. I wrote entering the year about how "game manager" is a term often weaponized against quarterbacks, but really managing a game is a skill every quarterback must have. It really only becomes a negative if you are coached up to take care of the ball and let the defense and run game handle it, while you can never elevate above game manager.
Purdy has cleared the game manager hurdle. He led back-to-back, game-winning drives last postseason with his back against the wall and was perhaps a 49ers muffed punt away from winning the Super Bowl. Tagovailoa gets caught up in this conversation, too. But if you've watched Miami without him this year, enough said.
Now the "system quarterback" conversation is a different story. This is about what is surrounding the quarterback between the scheme and supporting cast. I think we can all agree that Purdy and Tagovailoa have been two of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL in recent years while playing in two of the best situations.
Since 2022, which is Purdy's rookie year and Tagovailoa's first year with Mike McDaniel, they rank one-two in the league in yards per attempt and yards per dropback. Both are top five in EPA per play and pass success rate in that span.
They are undoubtedly doing it in the most quarterback-friendly systems in the league as Kyle Shanahan (5.93) and his disciple, McDaniel (5.94), rank top three among head coaches in yards per play in the Super Bowl era (min. 40 games) behind only Mike Martz (5.98).
Credit can be shared here. Both quarterbacks are excellent at making the right plays with precision and timing while playing in elite systems with all-world supporting casts. That doesn't have to be a bad thing though as Shanahan noted before last year's Super Bowl.
"It's such a weird conversation to hear the whole world talking about this. In my opinion, there's no such thing as a great quarterback if you can't be a game manager," Shanahan said. "So, I don't get how being a system quarterback or a game manager is a negative. You're a game manager, you run the system right and you can make plays. Brock does all three of those things, so I don't get what we're talking about."
We've seen Purdy and Tagovailoa at their best and now we are probably seeing them at their worst. So let's unpack everything in between and how both franchises, their head coaches and quarterbacks are moving forward.
Brock Purdy and 49ers struggles in 2024
"Mr. Irrelevant" has the highest yards per attempt (8.9) in NFL history among quarterbacks with at least 30 starts. He set the single-season record last year with a staggering 9.6 mark.
He's hit some bumps in the road this year, though. He has a 6-7 record with 15 touchdown passes and nine interceptions as the pristine infrastructure around him has crumbled.
A Purdy apologist, though, would look past the record this year and consider a few things. He's still playing at an above-average level despite the disaster around him. He's 12th in EPA per play, 10th in ESPN's Total QBR and third in yards per attempt (8.4) in 2024.
He's done it while airing the ball out (sixth in NFL in explosive pass rate and fourth in average target depth), relying less on YAC (third-lowest percentage of pass yards via YAC) and extending plays with his legs (top five in scrambles for first downs).
The favorite Purdy trolling line goes something like this: "Anyone could be good with McCaffrey and Deebo taking screen passes to the house."
So, last year he was getting burned for all of the YAC he got during a historic season. This year, he'll get burned for not winning enough even though he's making more plays. Haters can't have it both ways, but they'll try.
The 49ers have had zero games with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Trent Williams all in the lineup. Basically, Purdy's "big five." Those five all played in 13 games last season.
It's been night and day for Purdy this year just looking game by game at who is missing:
Games missed by 49ers' 'big five' last 2 seasons
| 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
Week 1 | McCaffrey | |
Week 2 | McCaffrey | |
Week 3 | McCaffrey | |
Week 4 | McCaffrey | |
Week 5 | McCaffrey | |
Week 6 | McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle | |
Week 7 | Samuel , Williams | McCaffrey |
Week 8 | Samuel , Williams | McCaffrey, Aiyuk |
Week 10 | Aiyuk | |
Week 11 | Aiyuk, Kittle | |
Week 12 | Aiyuk, Williams | |
Week 13 | Aiyuk, Williams | |
Week 14 | McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Williams | |
Week 15 | McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Williams | |
Week 16 | McCaffrey, Aiyuk | |
Week 17 | TBD | |
Week 18 | McCaffrey, Kittle | TBD |
But, there's a flip side to that coin. If the 49ers are about to hand Purdy a bag this offseason, I'm sure they'd like to see more consistency when he doesn't have a full array of weapons or when the game script isn't favorable.
A Purdy hater could point out that he's 17-4 with 38 touchdown passes and eight interceptions as a starter when his "big five" play. He's 10-9 with 25 touchdown passes and 15 picks when any don't play, including playoffs.
Then there's the game script. Shanahan's teams have had trouble playing from behind with just about anyone and that issue hasn't eluded Purdy. He has seven touchdown passes and 13 interceptions in his career when tied or trailing in the second half, including playoffs.
Last week's fourth-quarter interception vs. the Rams was particularly painful. As I mentioned at the top, he came through when it mattered last postseason with two game-winning drives. The 49ers also scored on eight of their 12 drives in the second half or overtime in the NFC title game and Super Bowl last year.
This season has been a different story, though. Purdy is 3 of 11 at successfully leading his team down the field for scores in a game-tying or go-ahead situation in the fourth quarter or overtime. Frankly, the 49ers defense hasn't gotten enough stops in these situations either, but Purdy and San Francisco's offense need to be better. They are 1-4 vs. the NFC West this year, blowing a fourth-quarter lead in each game, making them the first team with four divisional losses with a fourth-quarter lead since the 2008 Lions, who infamously went 0-16.
No doubt, there's plenty of fuel Purdy haters can pour on the fire this year. It's a collective effort though. Purdy's struggles, the injuries and Shanahan's offense are all part of the equation.
Since Thursday's loss to the Rams, both Jerry Rice and Steve Young have come out publicly and said Kyle Shanahan needs to reinvent himself as defenses have adjusted.
"The whole league studied the 49ers, they've been studying Kyle Shanahan for two or three solid years, they do that with Andy Reid, they do that with Kyle Shanahan. Those are the two guys that everybody studies," Young said. "And everyone says, not again, not again. And with every defensive coordinator in the league, saying not again, now Kyle is going to have to innovate again, he will have to reinvent himself, Andy Reid at 67 years old continues to reinvent himself, year after year, game after game. Kyle has done that as well, and he'll have to do it again."
To Young's point, the 49ers are dead last in the NFL in average target separation (3.0) this year according to NFL Pro insights, after ranking 13th last year (3.5). Injuries are part of that. Brandon Aiyuk was the 49ers best wide receiver and deep threat. Christian McCaffrey played four games this year and is the best chess piece in the game. Deebo Samuel has also fallen off a cliff. That trio had 40 touchdowns in 2023. They have two in 2024.
But, Shanahan and the scheme get some blame, too. Purdy is 21st in YAC per completion (5.2) this year after ranking first in 2023 (6.6).
Jerry Rice shed more light on this. "My thing is, we know that we don't throw the ball to the outside ... I just feel like everything is so condensed and the lanes are very difficult because they are small. When you spread everything out, there are bigger lanes a quarterback can deliver the ball."
Purdy has always thrown over the middle (as have all 49ers quarterbacks under Shanahan) at one of the highest rates in the league. He's 16th in pass success rate over the middle this year vs. third from 2022-23.
So, while the 49ers will presumably be healthier next year, Shanahan clearly has work to do in terms of beating the man-press coverage that they are seeing more as their playmakers struggle to separate. There's also the challenge of not being so reliant on the middle of the field as defenses look to take that away.
I also fully expect the 49ers to give Purdy a pricey extension this offseason, but he will have to be more consistent against adverse situations to live up to the bill and shed the "system quarterback" label, at least in the negative sense.
One thing I am sure of, this is not Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0. Garoppolo isn't in the same stratosphere as Purdy in terms of his ability to stretch the field (both vertically and horizontally) and extend plays with his legs.
This is one of Purdy's best throws of the year (Week 6 in Seattle) and he's made countless others like it this year that showcase his ability to make strong throws to the outside with anticipation and timing.
That's not the type of play a "game manager" or "system quarterback" puts on tape. The 49ers are going to win a lot of games with the Shanahan-Purdy pair despite this year's struggles.
Tua Tagovailoa and Dolphins struggles in 2024
On the surface, Tagovailoa continues to put up some big numbers in Miami. He led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9) in 2022, led the pass yards (4,624) last year and leads in completion percentage this year (73.7%).
His value was also very apparent when Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley had to start four games this year when he was out with a concussion. They averaged 10 points per game with them.
Dolphins by starting QB this season
| Tagovailoa | Thompson/Huntley | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 5-5 | 1-3 |
PPG | 23.6 | 10.0 |
Total YPG | 343.9 | 274.5 |
Pass YPG | 257.1 | 136.5 |
Still, like Purdy, concerns remain over his performance against certain adverse situations, especially for a guy making $53 million a year (fifth-highest paid player in the NFL).
The Dolphins are 1-10 (.091) vs. winning teams in the last two years and 16-4 (.800) vs. .500 or worse opponents. That's good for the largest disparity (win percentage drops off .709) by any team in a two-year span in the last 30 seasons. They can beat the cupcakes, but that's about it.
Tagovailoa is 1-9 vs. winning teams (13 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions) in that span, and 15-2 (34 touchdown passes and nine picks) vs. everyone else.
We've also seen Miami collapse down the stretch (Tagovailoa is 4-9 with 17 touchdowns and 13 picks in December and January since 2022) and they've lost the seven coldest starts of his career.
So, any game vs. good teams, late in the year, in cold weather, is a massive problem. In other words, the conditions of most road playoff games.
Tagovailoa's (and Miami's) big-game struggles aren't going away.
Neither is a similar issue Shanahan is facing. Defenses have clearly adjusted to McDaniel's offense and turned this from one of the most feared units to one of the least explosive ones in the NFL.
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense were a revelation in 2022 in their first year with McDaniel. They could stretch the field in lightning-quick fashion with Tagovailoa's quick release, paired with McDaniel's scheme and the fastest wide receiver duo in the NFL (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle).
That year Tagovailoa led the NFL in completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield and had the shortest average time to pass on those plays. He also threw it 10+ yards more often than any quarterback in the league.
Now, defenses are taking away the deep ball with two high safeties while rolling more defenders to the middle of the field to take away intermediate passes. They have limited throws to the second and third level while running back De'Von Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith are getting more incorporated into the offense.
Check out Tagovailoa's evolution under McDaniel from 2022 to 2024:
- He's gone from the second LONGEST to the SHORTEST average pass in the NFL
- He's gone from the second HIGHEST to the fourth LOWEST explosive pass rate
- He's gone from the highest percentage of passes thrown 11-20 air yards to the 16th highest
- And from the 13th highest rate of passes 21+ air yards to the LOWEST.
Tua Tagovailoa NFL tranks under Mike McDaniel (since 2022)
| Avg Pass Dist | Pct of Att 11-20 AY | Pct of Att 21+ AY | Explosive pass pct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 2nd | 1st | 13th | 2nd |
2023 | 17th | 3rd | 16th | 11th |
2024 | Last | 16th | 34th | 31st |
Yes, Tagoaviloa has the shortest average pass this year. His average throw travels 5.7 yards downfield. The home run ball we all loved from Miami is gone. He led the NFL with 60 completions thrown 20+ air yards from 2022-23. He has nine this year, tied for 29th in the league.
Defenses are playing cover-2 29% of the time vs. Tua this year, the highest rate any quarterback has faced since tracking began in 2017. It was 18% in the previous two years.
Something is clearly wrong in Miami, and it's much more dire than in San Francisco. Think about it, the 49ers have already made two Super Bowls with Shanahan and they are still hitting plenty of explosives with Purdy. They've also been hit a lot harder with injuries.
The Dolphins really haven't won a single big game under McDaniel. They have lingering concerns with Tagovailoa's concussions and their dynamic offense has disappeared. There's going to be a ton of pressure in 2025 for McDaniel to innovate and the entire team, including Tagovailoa, to step up in big games.
'System quarterback' verdict
Now, can you win a Super Bowl with them? I think Purdy already answered that question but I'm not sure about Tagovailoa even though he proved he had some stones in the national title game with Alabama.
What they have proved this year is that they still have a reasonably high floor as a "system quarterback" even when the infrastructure around them cracks or crumbles. Purdy and Tagovailoa are both top 15 in EPA per play and ESPN's Total QBR this year.
You can call them both "system quarterbacks" if you want, but aren't most quarterbacks? How many guys around the league would actually be thriving in these circumstances? I count four between Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Maybe a few more between Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert. There's pretty much that aforementioned Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks and everyone else. You could be called worse things than a "system quarterback," just ask Tom Brady.
I have no idea how well Purdy and Tagovailoa would play in another system. I have a pretty strong feeling they'd be struggling like most quarterbacks would be on the Giants, for example, but I'm pretty sure other quarterbacks in a similar boat like Jared Goff or Sam Darnold would, too.
They catch a lot of heat because they don't have overpowering arms or elite running ability like the NFL's superstar quarterbacks. But, Purdy and Tagovailoa give their teams a chance to be competitive even at their low points. And, when everything lines up, they are playoff teams, and in the 49ers case, championship contenders.
There's nothing wrong with that. They are worth the investment (and future investment) if you can come to terms with the fact that they aren't the next coming of Joe Montana and Dan Marino. Both their teams will reload and both quarterbacks will help their franchises win a lot of games in the future.
Sure, ideally, if you can find a top-five superstar quarterback who can manage games and make all the highlight reel plays, good for you. Easier said than done (ask the 49ers with Trey Lance). Having a top-15 quarterback in Purdy and Tagovailoa is also a good spot to be in.