The NFC West has belonged to the San Francisco 49ers for the last several seasons, as the franchise has collected three of the last five division championships. The 49ers aren't leading the NFC West heading into November, but the division's biggest long shot is.
The Arizona Cardinals are leading the NFC West, holding a three-way tiebreaker with San Francisco and Seattle for the division lead at 4-4. The Cardinals have won two of their four games this season when trailing by multiple scores in the fourth quarter (the rest of the NFL has three combined) and have won back-to-back games on walk-off field goals.
While the Cardinals are one of the surprising teams this season, Arizona being an improved team wasn't necessarily a shock based on how it finished last season. Leading the NFC West heading into November is a surprise, even though the Cardinals are only .500.
Is Arizona a serious contender for the division title? The Cardinals appear to at least be a thorn in the side for all the other teams vying for the NFC West.
Cardinals since Kyler Murray returned
Murray may not be considered one of the top 10 quarterbacks in football, yet the Cardinals win games when he plays. Since Murray returned from a torn ACL in Week 10 of last season, the Cardinals are 7-9 in the 16 games he's started. While that record may not seem impressive, Arizona was 1-12 in the 13 games he missed with the injury.
Murray has played well in those 16 games too, completing 66.4% of his passes for 3,437 yards with 21 touchdowns to eight interceptions and a 93.4 rating (16th in the NFL in that stretch). That's the second-highest passer rating of the division quarterbacks (Brock Purdy is first at 106.2).
The Cardinals are (at the very least) competitive when Murray is at quarterback, making them a tough out in the NFC West. They aren't the best team in the division when Murray plays, but far from a pushover.
The schedule
The Cardinals have a statement game this week against the Chicago Bears (4-3) at home, followed by another home game against the New York Jets (3-6) before the bye week. Arizona travels to Seattle (4-4) than Minnesota (5-2), followed by a home date against Seattle again.
Arizona then gets New England (2-6) followed by road games against Carolina (1-7) and the Los Angeles Rams (3-4). The Cardinals end the season against the 49ers (4-4), who they defeated in Week 5.
This schedule isn't a gauntlet, but the Cardinals have several swing games in November that will determine whether they are in the race in December. Going 2-1 in that Seattle-Minnesota stretch will go a long way toward being in the division title chase.
The 49ers in the second half
The 49ers never get off to the best start of a season, a common theme under Kyle Shanahan over the last few seasons. San Francisco is 16-16 from games 1 though 8 over the last four seasons, only to have a 23-4 record from games 9 through 17 the rest of the way. That .852 win percentage is No. 1 in the NFL.
The second half of the season is when the 49ers shine, as San Francisco has taken control of the division twice over the last three years during the stretch. San Francisco has made the conference championship game in all three of those seasons.
Whether the Cardinals can make a division run or not will be how they keep pace with a 49ers team that should see Christian McCaffrey back at some point. The 49ers are banged up in 2024, but their reputation speaks for itself.
The defense
Even though defense is Jonathan Gannon's background, his unit has not been good for the majority of the season. The Cardinals are 31st in points allowed per possession (2.64) and 32nd in yards allowed per possession (40.0), one of the worst units in the league.
Arizona is 27th in yards allowed per game (376.5), 28th in yards per play allowed (6.0), 26th in rush yards allowed per game (140.6), and 32nd in third-down conversions allowed (52.1%). The Cardinals are 27th in sack rate (5.7%) and 29th in pressure rate (27.2%).
The Cardinals allow an opponents passer rating of 101.4, which is 27th in the league. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 71.7% of their passes against Arizona, 30th in the NFL.
This defense is one of the worst in the league, a unit teams will continue to exploit over the second half of the season. Arizona has to improve the defense if it wants to compete for the NFC West.