Justin Herbert is becoming the inverse of Brock Purdy.
What do I mean by that?
With Purdy, you have an average-at-best quarterback talent who operates within the 49ers' brilliantly crafted scheme at near optimal efficiency but doesn't possess the physical talent to live "above" the scheme when it breaks down or everyone is covered. Herbert, on the other hand, is a seismic talent capable of connecting on the highest-degree of difficulty throws from any platform or arm angle. But this season, he's sunk below normal Herbertian consistency as a passer within the scheme, and now 55 games into his professional career, has left much to be desired accomplishment-wise from a team perspective.
I recently wrote my thoughts on Purdy and expanded to a larger point about how we should evaluate quarterbacks, stating that blatant misses and magnificent, challenging throws should swing the pendulum of reputation on NFL quarterbacks today. Further, we can't celebrate passers for simply hitting the wide-open receiver over and over if that's all they can do.
With Herbert, he still makes the ridiculous, jaw-dropping throws yet isn't finding or hitting the open receivers within the intended structure of the play as often as he should. Missing the layups is noteworthy for a quarterback, too, even if they're lights out from beyond the arc.
Let's compare Herbert's start in 2023 to his first three NFL seasons, in some key quarterbacking metrics:
| Adjusted Comp % | Big-Time Throw % | Turnover-Worthy Play % | Yards Per Attempt | aDOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 75.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
2021 | 77.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
2022 | 78.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 6.8 | 6.9 |
2023 through five games | 73.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 8.7 |
Things got stale with former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who, after a dazzling rookie campaign from Herbert, started to micromanage his outrageously gifted quarterback and didn't provide nearly enough deep-ball opportunities while accentuating the short, easy completion. In 2022, it seemed Lombardi liked driving his Lamborghini through the school zone.
Thus far, Year 1 of Kellen Moore's aggressive offense hasn't been a total disaster for Herbert. Far from. But, he has gotten more careless with the football and the accuracy has dipped. Then again, those are often two byproducts of an offense that wants to attack vertically more often.
Also, the big-time throw rate of 4.0% isn't particularly high. He hasn't been lights out from deep.
So, here's what has become abundantly clear: the Chargers are still searching for the happy medium between a) Herbert's enormous talents being constrained within a conservative offense, and b) the overall offensive efficiency taking a hit in a more arm-strength reliant, downfield-based attack.
And then there's this from ESPN's Ed Werder on Tuesday morning after the Chargers' Week 6 loss on "Monday Night Football" to the Cowboys:
Some analysts in the industry don't believe in "clutchness." It gets lumped in with "momentum" as a mostly immeasurable fallacy that sounds cool but simply doesn't exist.
I do believe in it. Completing a pass through a tight window in the first quarter is not the same as needing to do so down seven on third-and-10 with less than two minutes to play. And beyond the interceptions, Herbert's passer rating of 86.1 in the fourth quarter of a one-score game is 16th-best out of 21 quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts in those scenarios since the start of 2020, his rookie season. Not great.
Simply put, Herbert must play better in crunch time.
Quarterback is the most vital position on the field -- we know that. But as a reminder that wins are not a quarterback stat -- especially across a three-plus year sample -- the Chargers record in Herbert starts is 27-27, and the young quarterback has played far better than .500 football individually.
Check this wild statistic, which speaks directly to the Chargers team as a whole: in Herbert's 55 games (54 regular season and one playoff), Los Angeles has either won or lost in a one-score contest in 39 of those outings (70.9%).
The Chargers are 18-21 in those games. Over time, as a general rule of thumb, you can expect teams to hover near .500 in one-score contests. But doesn't it feel like a Herbert-led squad should have a better win percentage than .461 in those tight outings?
Herbert's head coach, Brandon Staley, isn't getting a pass here. Quite the opposite, actually. His waffling game-management tendencies and perennially underachieving defenses relative to the talent provided are very much a culprit in the mystery of why the Chargers have yet to meet expectations in the Herbert era.
Staley's defense is currently 26th in Aaron Schatz' all-encompassing efficient metric, DVOA, a year after finishing 21st during the regular season. In Staley's first season with the Chargers, his defense was 26th in DVOA. Safe to say something -- see: many things -- about Staley's overall defensive philosophy aren't working, especially considering the team has Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr. -- and hasn't been shy about spending big in free agency on that side of the ball.
The defensive instability puts a lot on the offense -- with Herbert at the center of it -- each game. A few mistakes on that side of the ball, and the Chargers can easily get into a hole or see an early lead vanish faster than most of the NFL.
As for Herbert, before the season, I firmly stated I loved the idea of him in Moore's vertical-based offense. And I'm sticking to that. But the accuracy and decision-making must improve. Plus, more frequent long-ball strikes would mitigate some of the misses or ill-advised throws. Because so much of the appeal with Herbert is his massive upside.
But currently, the now-experienced veteran Herbert and his tremendous flashes are better than his actual play, especially in those tightly contested battles, which occur close to every three out of four games for the Chargers.