When NFC contenders are discussed, the Buccaneers aren't usually brought up. They have the 10th-best odds to win the conference (26-1), even behind the likes of the Falcons (17-1), Seahawks (21-1) and Vikings (24-1).
They should be getting more respect, though. After all, they won a playoff game last year and were tied with the Lions in the fourth quarter of the divisional round matchup in Detroit. Now, Baker Mayfield and company have a chance to handle unfinished business on Sunday in Detroit when they get a rematch with the Lions. They can also put the rest of the NFC on notice.
Mayfield continues to play the best ball of his career after the Buccaneers handled the Commanders, 37-20, in Week 1. Mayfield led the way completing 24 of 30 passes for 289 yards, four touchdown passes and no interceptions. His play has been excellent over the last seven games, which includes a perfect passer rating game (158.3) vs. the Packers and back-to-back efforts eclipsing 300 passing yards and three touchdown passes in the playoffs. He ranks among the best quarterbacks in the NFL over this seven-game span, which dates back to Week 15 last season.
- Eighth in completion percentage (69%)
- Second in yards per attempt (8.9)
- First in touchdown passes (18)
- 11th in EPA per play (+0.11)
Baker Mayfield Buccaneers career including playoffs
| First 13 Games | Last 7 Games | |
|---|---|---|
Comp pct | 63% | 69% |
Yards per attempt | 6.7 | 8.9 |
TD-INT | 20-8 | 18-4 |
EPA per play | -0.06 | 0.11 |
This run has been fueled by Mayfield's strong connection with one of the most underrated wide receiver duos in the NFL. Mayfield completed 13 of 14 passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Sunday's win vs. the Commanders.
They were feeding off each other, too. Godwin made a few nice plays when bunched with Evans, including this touchdown.
Don't forget, they are a perfect complement. Godwin is still one of the league's better slot receivers and Evans reminded us he's a bully on the outside.
Mayfield has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for almost 10 yards per attempt to the duo over this seven-game stretch, a big increase from his first 13 games with Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield career targeting Mike Evans/Chris Godwin
| First 13 Games | Last 7 Games | |
|---|---|---|
Comp pct | 59% | 69% |
Yards per attempt | 8.2 | 9.6 |
TD-INT | 11-6 | 9-1 |
Passer rating | 91.1 | 123.7 |
In terms of EPA per play, Mayfield's connection with Godwin is the third-best of any quarterback-receiver duo in the NFL since Week 15 last season. His connection with Evans ranks fifth. That's among 24 duos with at least 35 pass attempts.
Best EPA per play by QB-WR duo Since Week 15, 2023
C.J. Stroud > Nico Collins | 0.80 |
Matthew Stafford > Puka Nacua | 0.73 |
Baker Mayfield > Chris Godwin | 0.70 |
Brock Purdy > Brandon Aiyuk | 0.66 |
Baker Mayfield > Mike Evans | 0.53 |
In other words, individually and collectively these guys are scorching hot and are proving they can still ball. They've pretty much put up numbers that can stand up to any of the best wide receiver duos since Mayfield came to Tampa Bay. Since the start of last year they rank seventh among duos in combined receptions (194), fifth in receiving yards (2,703) and third in targets (312).
Notable wide receiver duos in last two seasons, including playoffs
| Rec | Rec Yards | TD | Yds/Rec | Targets | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle | 210 | 3,145 | 19 | 15.0 | 305 |
A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith | 207 | 2,873 | 15 | 13.9 | 300 |
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin | 194 | 2,703 | 20 | 13.9 | 312 |
Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel | 164 | 2,611 | 15 | 15.9 | 250 |
Cooper Kupp/Puka Nacua | 196 | 2,576 | 13 | 13.1 | 299 |
D.K. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett | 154 | 2,114 | 13 | 13.7 | 252 |
Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison | 145 | 2,079 | 16 | 14.3 | 218 |
Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins | 148 | 1,934 | 12 | 13.1 | 227 |
They've been a massive part of Mayfield's success, as Evans and Godwin combined for over half of the Buccaneers receiving yards in the Mayfield era. It also comes as a bit of a surprise. Mayfield is on his fourth team. Evans is now 31. Godwin tore his ACL in 2021. They are putting up the type of numbers Mayfield was supposed to produce with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry back in his Cleveland days. The side-by-side comparison below shows it's not even close.
Baker Mayfield career when targeting duo including playoffs
| 2019-21 Beckham Jr./Landry | 2023-24 Evans/Godwin | |
|---|---|---|
Yards per attempt | 7.7 | 8.7 |
TD-INT | 18-23 | 20-7 |
Passer rating | 77.4 | 102.3 |
Mayfield is even averaging more yards per attempt to Evans and Godwin (8.7) than Brady did in Tampa Bay (8.6).
Behind all the great numbers there's also plenty of mutual respect and admiration as ESPN Buccaneers reporter Jenna Laine noted on Monday.
You can't help root for this group. Mayfield can also help the duo make some big history this year. You've probably heard the stat that Evans has 1,000 receiving yards in every season in his career. He can tie Jerry Rice for the most consecutive seasons with 1,000 receiving yards this year, seeking his 11th in a row.
But you probably haven't seen this. Evans and Godwin have also had 1,000 receiving yards in the same season, four times. If they do it again in 2024 they would tie Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt for the most by teammates in NFL history (five).
Most seasons with 1,000 receiveng yards each - teammates in NFL history
Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt (Rams) | 5 |
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) | 4 |
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (Chiefs) | 4 |
Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell (Jaguars) | 4 |
Cris Carter and Jake Reed (Vikings) | 4 |
So don't sleep on Tampa Bay. They can make some noise in the NFC starting with a statement in Detroit in Week 2.