Where: Soldier Field, Chicago (grass, outdoors).
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Spread: Packers by 3
Forecast: Cloudy, 43 degrees
Records: Bears (8-5; NFC North 2-2); Packers (9-4; NFC North 4-0)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Sept. 13, 2012, Packers 23, Bears 10; Dec. 25, 2011: Packers 35, Bears 21. Series record: Bears lead 92-87-6, but Packers have won five straight.
What matters: The Bears need to win to prevent Green Bay from clinching its second straight NFC North title. The Bears' lead in the NFC wild card race has dwindled to a single game over Washington, Minnesota and Dallas. With a win, the Bears would still need help from Tennessee next week against Green Bay and/or Minnesota in Week 17 to win the division. The Bears' defense has to find a way to start faster than last week, when it allowed a touchdown on the Vikings' opening series, and faster in general against the Packers because Green Bay has scored a touchdown on five of its past seven opening drives against the Bears. The Bears' offense has averaged just 14.5 points in its past five games.
Who matters: A banged-up QB Jay Cutler tries to beat the Packers for only the second time since he became a Bear. Cutler has a sprained knee and neck injury, courtesy of the Vikings' pass rush. He'll be playing behind an offensive line that has tackles James Brown and Gabe Carimi at guard spots due to injuries and ineffective play. Cutler rarely seems to play well against the Packers, and owns a 60.5 passer rating in seven starts, with eight TDs and 15 INTs. He's hardly alone when it comes to the Bears' offensive players struggles against the Packers. Matt Forte averages 4.2 yards per carry for his career against the league but only 3.4 against the Packers. Even WR Brandon Marshall hasn't had big numbers, averaging five catches a contest in three games. He was held to two catches in the loss earlier this year as Green Bay zoned him and bracketed him with DBs. ... With the offense struggling against Green Bay's 3-4 scheme, the defense has its hands full with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who has beaten them in eight of 10 starts. LB Lance Briggs and NT Stephen Paea are key run stoppers who will have to contend with a revived Packers' running game.
Key matchups: Bears DE Julius Peppers vs. LT Marshall Newhouse. Peppers' play has tailed off of late, with one sack his past four games. He hasn't had the impact of early season, like he did when he had two sacks against Green Bay in this year's first matchup. Peppers hasn't had a forced fumble this season -- it would be the first time in his career he didn't have one if he fails to get one. Newhouse struggled against him, and the Packers' line in general did, but Green Bay has had a full season to see the Bears moving Peppers around more now and it shouldn't surprise them. Peppers has to have impact plays. ... Packers TE Jermichael Finley against MLB Nick Roach. With Brian Urlacher out due to a hamstring injury, Roach has to cover a lot of ground in the middle of the field, where Finley has often burned the Bears. Finley has 31 catches for 361 yards and four touchdowns against the Bears, so he's usually been effective. Roach didn't get tested in the passing game last week, just the run game. Urlacher helpled hold Finley in check last game even if Finley insists Urlacher is getting old and the Bears are better off using younger players at the spot. ... Bears LT J'Marcus Webb against OLB Clay Matthews. Matthews led the charge with 3 1/2 sacks in the second game of the season, when Cutler was sacked seven times. But this time Matthews is coming off missing the past four straight games with a hamstring injury. His speed and relentless style are not unlike Jared Allen's, but he comes at the Bears from different spots in a 3-4 and Webb will have to be guessing. At 6-4, 246, Matthews is 80 pounds smaller, but when he lines up off the line it gives him a chance to use his speed when blitzing and keep Webb off balance. Expect the Bears to provide plenty of help chipping the edge, but often Matthews is able to beat that inside because of his mobility. ... Bears WR Brandon Marshall vs. CB Sam Shields. Marshall has talked big this week and has big numbers this year to match. Shields played last week for the first time since the sixth game after recovering from a high ankle sprain. The Packers could rotate Tramon Williams to cover Marshall, but the more likely approach is what they did in the first game, which was use "two-man" coverage with a safety close over the top and the corner on either side trailing close off Marshall's inside shoulder. Marshall has a 6-inch height edge on Shields. Look for Marshall in the slot more and in motion more this time.
Injuries of note: Cutler's knee sprain could keep him from eluding the rush to throw. His neck issue appears no problem. ... WR Earl Bennett remains out with a concussion. ... A big blow to the defense could be DT Henry Melton's chest injury. The rush men are already going to be without Shea McClellin (knee). ... CB Tim Jennings appears unlikely to play with a shoulder injury, so the Bears will need Kelvin Hayden to be more productive than he was last week against Minnesota.
Inside stuff: The loss of Craig Steltz and Sherrick McManis for the year to injuries this week greatly depletes not only the team's defensive backfield depth, but special teams. It's devastating. Both are leaders in coverage, and with Randall Cobb a threat to return it all the way, the Bears could have Robbie Gould's replacement, Olindo Mare, squib-kicking and giving up field position.
Stat you should know: The Bears' offense hasn't gotten into the end zone against the Packers more than twice in any game since 2007, and in the last 10 games against Green Bay the Bears have scored only 14.1 points per game. ... After 184 games, only 49 points separate the teams in this series (Bears 3,110, Packers 3,061).
Record watch: Marshall needs only 59 yards receiving to break the Bears single-season yardage record of 1,400 set by Marcus Robinson in 1999. ... Devin Hester needs one touchdowns to tie Deion Sanders for most return TDs of any kind in NFL history. He's facing the team he made his first touchdown return against.
Bulletin board material: Take your pick. Marshall challenging Packers corners to cover him one on one or Briggs calling Jermichael Finley an "idiot," or Urlacher pointing out the Packers won the Super Bowl without Finley. It all blended together this week.
Looking ahead: The Bears are in the desert against the Cardinals in what shapes up as a must-win Dec. 23. The Packers host Tennessee in Week 16.
Prediction: Packers 30, Bears 16
Follow Bears reporter Gene Chamberlain on Twitter @CBSBears.