It didn't happen overnight. Bill Belichick, genius, didn't become Bill Belichick, has-been, on Monday at Kansas City.
But it is happening. Make no mistake about that. Bill Belichick, genius? That ship has sailed. It was a luxury cruise while it lasted, with three Super Bowl titles in four years and a 16-0 season that resulted in a fourth Super Bowl appearance after the 2007 season, and a fifth Super Bowl shot in February 2012. It was so good and it lasted so long that, even as Belichick started to make the slide from has to has-been, the momentum -- and Tom Brady -- carried the Patriots to a 24-8 record over the past two seasons.
But all bills come due, even this Bill. Especially this Bill. What happened Monday night in Kansas City wasn't merely a 41-14 humiliation. It was a comeuppance.
And it was a matter of time. Belichick has made so many mistakes, and he has made them in the same spots for so long -- at receiver, at offensive line -- that a game like the one on Monday night was an inevitability. The 24-point defeat was the Patriots' worst loss in nearly a decade, since they lost by the same score to San Diego in 2005.
The Patriots are 2-2, but it's a lousy 2-2. They beat the Vikings in Minnesota's first game since the Adrian Peterson scandal broke, and they beat the Raiders, who just fired their coach because their coach and their whole organization is lousy. The Patriots have been beaten by the Dolphins -- whose only other win came against the Raiders -- and now this blowout in Kansas City.
Bill did this.
Did Bill win those Super Bowls? Did he do that? Yeah that was him, but he's not the same guy. Not as a general manager, anyway. His coaching skills? They're as good as ever, given the way his teams keep winning games and going to the playoffs -- the Patriots won 12 games in each of the past two seasons despite their obvious talent erosion -- but have you seen the chicken bleep the guy in charge of player personnel (Belichick) has asked the coach (Belichick) to turn into chicken salad?
For years we called Belichick genius, and it seemed to fit. Ten division titles in 14 years of the salary cap era. Four AFC titles along the way. But lately Belichick's genius is a one-way road heading out of Foxborough. Meaning, he's as good as he ever was at identifying when a great player is no longer worth great-player money. Belichick was right about Lawyer Milloy in 2002, Richard Seymour in 2009 and both Ty Warren and Randy Moss in 2010, four players who combined for nine All-Pro slots with the Patriots and zero after Belichick bid them adieu. Belichick was probably even right in August about perennial Pro Bowl offensive guard Logan Mankins -- who would have cost $10.5 million against the salary cap this season, but was traded to the Bucs.
Belichick can still get rid of 'em with the best of 'em. But acquire premium talent?
He's not so good at that anymore.
Time was, Belichick was a thrift-shop genius Macklemore minus the stupid "undercut" hairdo. Corey Dillon, Danny Woodhead, Andre Carter, Moss, Welker -- Belichick got them for pennies on the dollar. The worm started to turn a few years ago when he swung and missed on Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco in 2011. Then Kellen Winslow in 2012.
Around the same time, Belichick's genius for drafting fell off the same cliff. According to Pro-Football-reference.com the Patriots have found just 10 starters in the last four drafts, none who has made a Pro Bowl, and none who has made much of an impact. Three of those starters (2011 first-round pick Nate Solder and 2014 fourth-rounders Bryan Stork and Cameron Fleming) are offensive linemen, and the Patriots have arguably the worst offensive line in football. So, congratulations on those picks?
A fourth "starter," tight end Lee Smith, did his starting for the Bills after being released by the Patriots without playing a game in New England. A fifth, receiver Aaron Dobson -- a second-rounder in 2013 -- was the only player in the Patriots' seven-man haul that year to be a starter, and by midseason he was being called "Dropson" because he was so poor at his job. But say this for Dobson: That 41-14 loss to Kansas City wasn't his fault. He's so bad, he was inactive.
And have you seen the nonsense the Patriots are running out there at receiver? Julian Edelman is a star if he's your third receiver. He's your top guy? Ugh. Brandon LaFell, one of Belichick's big offseason pickups, has been pretty good at being "targeted" -- 24 times in four games -- but not so good at being "open and catching the ball" (10 catches this season).
What this offense could use is a receiver like Wes Welker, assuming he's eligible, but Belichick let Welker go before last season because he thought Danny Amendola was a better choice. Welker is another ex-Patriot whose last All-Pro selections came when he played for New England, but a diminished Welker (79 catches, 10 touchdowns since going to Denver in 2013) is still better than what Amendola has been with the Patriots (57 catches, two TDs since 2013).
Could be, receivers just aren't Belichick's thing. He has been known to maneuver his way around the draft for pieces he needs, but in 2013 he traded the No. 29 overall pick to the Vikings, who selected playmaking monster Cordarrelle Patterson -- and this year he stood pat at No. 29 to get Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley. That allowed the Panthers at No. 28 to take Kelvin Benjamin, who looks like one of the league's next great receivers (21 catches for 329 yards and three touchdowns in four games).
Easley, who was coming off a horrible knee injury at Florida, has been better than expected -- not great, but decent -- but is having to play more than anticipated because starter Sealver Siliga was injured in Week 3 and because last year's starter, Tommy Kelly, was released in August and is now a solid contributor in Arizona. Kelly asked for his release, but since when did Belichick start taking requests from players?
Oh, and about that woeful offensive line, which ProFootballFocus.com ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking and 22nd in run blocking: Belichick didn't get a lineman in return for Mankins. He got tight end Tim Wright, who has replaced Aaron Hernandez (another Belichick draftee) and provided four catches in four games. You can argue Mankins wasn't worth his $10.5 million cap hit. But the New England line misses him.
With a terrible line, terrible receivers and only one good (if hurting) tight end in Rob Gronkowski, quarterback Tom Brady is having the worst season of his career at age 37. Is the future Hall of Famer over the hill?
Belichick sure looks that way.
