Dolphins at Bengals -- Week 5
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio (turf, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Bengals by 3.5
Forecast: Temperatures expected in the 50s, 10-percent chance of rain
Records: Bengals (Overall: 3-1, AFC North: 1-1), Dolphins (Overall: 1-3, AFC East 0-1)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 20, 2007: Bengals 38, Dolphins 25; Oct. 31, 2010: Dolphins 22, Bengals 14. Series record: Dolphins lead, 14-5.
What matters: The glaring advantage comes in the passing game where Cincinnati gouged opponents for five touchdowns of 40 or more yards this year and the Dolphins enter ranked 30th against the pass. Those numbers are slightly skewed because Miami's top-ranked run defense forces more teams to throw. When looking at yards allowed per pass play, the Dolphins only rank 20th. But the clear weakness of one team faces the clear strength of another.
Who matters: Dolphins CB Sean Smith. Miami has shown a tendency to line Smith up in single coverage against elite receivers. They did against Houston's Andre Johnson and Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald. Johnson's 14-yard TD reception came with Smith left alone on the far sideline, and the Texans WR winning a contested catch. Green abused Jacksonville's Rashean Mathis against single coverage last week, catching three passes down the far sideline, including an 18-yard touchdown pass on a near-identical route to the one Johnson beat Smith on in Houston. If Green is one-on-one, Andy Dalton will be throwing his way.
Key matchups: RT Andre Smith vs. DE Cameron Wake. The Dolphins' pass rusher had 4.5 sacks in a mismatch against a battered Arizona offensive line last week. Smith doesn't figure to be such a pushover. The former No. 6 overall draft pick began to show over the last year-and-a-half why he was so highly regarded coming out of Alabama. Adding intrigue is the background of Smith in a contract year and relishing an opportunity to shut down one of the league's most prolific pass rushers. A big day could mean big dollars. The Bengals should leave Smith one-on-one with Wake better than 60 percent of the time. They have faith he'll be up to the challenge.
Injuries of note: The Bengals are as healthy as they've been all season. Only CB Jason Allen didn't practice this week. CB Leon Hall (hamstring) and CB/S Nate Clements (calf) are expected to return after missing last week's win in Jacksonville.
Inside stuff: Don't expect big plays from the Cincinnati running game. Take two stats into consideration. First, Miami has yet to allow a rush of 15 yards or more this season and second, BenJarvus Green-Ellis hasn't rushed for more than 20 yards in 354 regular season/postseason carries. Expect Cincinnati to run only to keep Miami honest in pass defense and little else.
Connections: Former Bengals secondary coach Kevin Coyle was hired as the Dolphins' defensive coordinator for the Dolphins in January. Coyle spent 11 years as an assistant with the Bengals and molded many of his techniques under current Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer. They're close to identical. Dissecting the Dolphins' defense will operate much like a training camp practice for Dalton.
Record watch: With a 100-yard receiving day, WR A.J. Green will become the third player in Bengals' history to have three consecutive 100-yard receiving days. Chad Ochocinco did it twice (2006, 2002) and Carl Pickens once (1994).
Stat you should know: Miami ranks 29th in giveaways (10), but the Bengals haven't shown the propensity to take advantage. Cincinnati has four takeaways in four games with one interception -- a Chris Crocker pick last week against Jacksonville.
Looking ahead: The journey to 5-1 continues. If Cincinnati can beat Miami its manageable, early season-schedule concludes with a trip to Cleveland next week. Then take a deep breath for the brutal 10-game gauntlet.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Dolphins 24
Follow Paul Dehner Jr. for Bengals updates on Twitter @CBSBengals.
