A year ago at this time, there were four NFL teams with +10000 odds or worse to win the Super Bowl. There are currently seven. A smaller pool of teams viewed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders this year may exist, but not all hope is lost for those teams.
Here is the best possible outcome for several teams least likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy (odds via SportsLine consensus):
Arizona Cardinals (+12500)
Arizona has finished within the basement of the NFC West four of the last six years. But, for the first time since winning the division in 2015, there are reasons to believe positive change could be occurring under the direction of second-year coach Jonathan Gannon. The smart strategy in roster construction would be to continue at a gradual pace rather than overextending themselves for short-term gain. They are still at a talent deficit, but the hope is that they found a handful of starters with eight picks in the top 104 overall of the 2024 NFL Draft.
If Kyler Murray can continue showcasing his talents as the franchise quarterback and the team can identify foundational pieces, then fans should be able to reflect back on this season in an optimistic manner.
New York Giants (+15000)
There were a few different paths that were considered for the Giants. The most important result is that New York gains clarity on Daniel Jones and its quarterback conundrum. As someone who believes the franchise should expect more from the position, it may be in the best interest of the organization to walk away from this season with conviction that Jones is not the franchise quarterback and be in a position to draft high in 2025. Jones has a manageable $22.2 million dead salary cap hit next season.
With that being said, general manager Joe Schoen has done a good job taking calculated risks to add talent to the roster for the upcoming season. Wide receiver Malik Nabers and edge rusher Brian Burns are building blocks on each side of the ball.
Tennessee Titans (+15000)
Tennessee had a lot of needs entering the offseason. Rather than methodically chipping away at the stone blocking the entrance, they threw dynamite at the base and blew it up by signing top dollar wide receiver Calvin Ridley and trading for top dollar cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and disgruntled Rams star linebacker Ernest Jones IV; other additions include left tackle draft selection JC Latham and running back Tony Pollard. The Titans accelerated expectations for second-year quarterback Will Levis and the offseason investment must pay off.
The best-case scenario is that coach Brian Callahan proves himself to be an adaptable, forward-thinking offensive play-caller and Levis reaches his full potential.
Washington Commanders (+1500)
Washington had six draft selections in the top 100 overall, including No. 2 overall selection Jayden Daniels. The Commanders have a lot of questions entering the season so expecting them to win the majority of their games is likely farfetched.
The best outcome is similar to the transformation that Detroit has undergone since coach Dan Campbell arrived, but on a greater scale. The Lions finished last in the NFC North in Campbell's first season. Washington coach Dan Quinn can help cultivate a winning culture. If Daniels is what the league believes him to be, then seeing glimpses of that this season, while setting the franchise up to take a bigger step forward next year, is the best outcome. Do not be surprised if veteran defensive tackle Jonathan Allen is moved at the trade deadline to create more playing time for rookie second-round selection Jer'Zhan Newton while also giving the franchise more ammunition in next year's draft.
Carolina Panthers (+20000)
Carolina's entire offseason strategy was constructed on a desire to support former No. 1 overall selection Bryce Young. Young struggled mightily last season and a less than desirable supporting cast was a contributing factor. The Panthers first traded cornerback Donte Jackson for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, then signed offensive guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, and finally drafted wide receiver Xavier Legette, running back Jonathon Brooks and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders with three of their first four selections. Coach Dave Canales has a background creating an environment that allowed quarterbacks, such as Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson, to overcome physical limitations.
The best outcome is that Young is able to regain his confidence and the Panthers' offseason investments lead to a feasibly sustainable plan at quarterback.
Denver Broncos (+25000)
Denver has drafted the player that they believe to be its franchise quarterback, Bo Nix. Accountability is important, so I will be the first to admit, I considered Nix to be a reach in the top half of the first round. However, coach Sean Payton's plan for him is perfect and the collaboration has been impressive in the preseason. Questions about the ceiling of the offense persist, but they can be competitive if they continue at this trajectory. Feeling confident in the future of the union between Payton and Nix is the best possible outcome from the season. Other holes on the roster need to be patched, however. What is the plan at wide receiver? It has felt as though Courtland Sutton has been available for trade each of the past three years.
New England Patriots (+27500)
Fans are likely anxious to throw No. 3 overall selection Drake Maye onto the field to see if he has what it takes to return the franchise to glory. However, conservation is the more important approach given the lingering offensive line and skill talent questions. The supporting cast is not good enough for Maye to thrive and the coaches do not want to destroy his confidence for minimal short-term gain.
The best outcome for New England is veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett plays most of the season and turns it over to Maye late, just so he can get his feet wet and have some tape to study during the offseason. Then, spend next offseason acquiring the necessary talent to surround Maye, similar to what Carolina and Tennessee have done to support their young quarterbacks.