If one team having a 21-6 record versus another means something to you, then the Houston Texans stick out like a sore thumb for Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks. That's their record against the Jaguars over their last 27 meetings, and the two will clash on Sunday in Houston. However, the Jaguars aren't willing to make your Week 4 NFL knockout pool picks that simple and straightforward even after their meltdown on Monday. They've actually beaten the Texans the last two times the teams have met in Houston.

The Texans were humbled, 34-7, last Sunday by Minnesota, which may not help your confidence in backing Houston in Week 4 NFL eliminator pool picks. It was the team's largest loss since the 2022 season as C.J. Stroud had his second career game with multiple interceptions. Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10, 39.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. San Francisco is nearly unbeatable when healthy and whole as it is 14-1 when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Trent Williams play an entire game. However, the team is just 8-8 in all other games, including 1-2 this season. Plus, it's not like the Niners are missing just one of those players as McCaffrey is on IR, Samuel is slated to miss multiple weeks, Kittle was inactive in Week 3, and Williams briefly exited Sunday's loss with a calf cramp.

Add all of that up, and the Niners gave up a 14-point lead to a Rams team missing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. While San Fran has injured offensive stars, it's atypically struggling on the other side of the ball as well, ranking in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The Patriots have the No. 9 scoring defense and also have top 10-rankings in both rushing offense and defending the run. With New England also coming off extended rest, the Niners are just too risky to utilize in Week 4 NFL survivor picks. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.