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The four teams playing on Sunday in the Divisional Round of the 2026 NFL Playoffs feature quarterbacks who were all selected in the top three in the NFL Draft, including two former No. 1 overall picks. Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, leads the Chicago Bears against the Rams and Matthew Stafford, the top pick in the 2009 NFL Draft in a 6:30 p.m. ET matchup on Sunday. Given these two quarterbacks' abilities, the SportsLine model is backing Over 48.5 total points in Bears vs. Rams as a part of its best Sunday NFL parlay for the Divisional Round at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The model also has an against-the-spread pick for both games on Sunday for NFL best bets. The Sunday slate begins with the New England Patriots hosting the Houston Texans, and the model is backing the Texans as 3-point underdogs in a 3 p.m. ET matchup. The model is also backing the Bears as 3.5-point underdogs in the battle of top-picked quarterbacks in its Sunday Divisional Round NFL best bets.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns

Best Sunday NFL parlay for the Divisional Round at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Texans (+3) vs. Patriots (-102)
  • Bears (+3.5) vs. Rams (-102)
  • Rams vs. Bears: Over 48.5 total points (-110)

This Sunday Divisional Round NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +601 (risk $100 to win $601).

Texans (+3) vs. Patriots (-102)

The Houston defense completely dominated the Steelers last week, sacking Aaron Rodgers three times while forcing three turnovers, and returning two of them for touchdowns in a 30-6 game where Pittsburgh failed to score a touchdown. Drake Maye certainly has more mobility than a 42-year-old Rodgers, but the Texans' defense has frustrated opponents throughout the season, having the league's No. 1 scoring defense at 16.7 points per game allowed. Houston entered the playoffs with the longest winning streak in the NFL, which is now at 10 games after last week's road victory at Pittsburgh. Five of those 10 wins have come on the road as well, and given the softer schedule the Patriots have played this season, the 12-5 Texans could be their toughest test all year. The model projects the Texans to have all the value as 3-point underdogs, with 3 points being a key number to allow the possibility of a push if New England wins by exactly three. 

Bears (+3.5) vs. Rams (-102)

The Bears went 6-2 at home during the regular season, and defeated the Packers, 31-27, at Soldier Field last week as they have protected homefield for the majority of the year. Meanwhile, the Rams went just 5-4 on the road this season, despite playing only three road games against teams that finished with a winning record. After a 0-2 start, the Bears have won 12 of their last 16 games, including Wild Card Weekend, and Ben Johnson has made the Bears immediate contenders in his first year as head coach. The Rams went 12-5 this season, but they ended the regular season losing two of their final three games and struggled to get past the Panthers in a 34-31 final last week, despite being 10.5-point favorites. The model projects the Bears to cover in 53% of simulations. 

Rams vs. Bears: Over 48.5 total points (-110)

The Rams have the No. 1 scoring offense at 30.7 ppg this season, with the Bears ninth at 26.2 ppg. Both teams scored more than 31 points last week, and their games finished Over their totals, as they each allowed at least 27 points. Matthew Stafford is the favorite to win the NFL MVP after leading the league in passing yards (4,707) and touchdowns (46), and he carried that into the playoffs wth 304 yards and three touchdowns. Caleb Williams threw for 361 yards, including an incredible fourth-down throw that has made the rounds on social media, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The last seven Rams games have all finished Over, and that's a trend the model expects to continue. The Over hits in 53% of the model's simulations.