The Bills need QB Ryan Fitzpatrick operating at the top of his game Sunday against Miami because the Buffalo defense doesn't seem to be able to stop anybody. (US Presswire)

Bills vs. Dolphins -- Week 11

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park , N.Y. (turf, outdoors)

When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

Spread: Bills by 1.5

Forecast: 33 degrees, partly cloudy

Records -- Bills (Overall: 3-6, AFC East: 0-3); Dolphins (Overall: 4-5, AFC East: 1-1)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 18, 2011: Dolphins 30, Bills 23; Nov. 20, 2011, Dolphins 35, Bills 8.

Series record: Dolphins hold a 55-36-1 edge.

What matters: Can the Bills match Miami’s physicality? The Dolphins were surprisingly blown out by the Tennessee Titans in Week 10, but in the weeks before that they played pretty well. Last year, the Dolphins physically manhandled the Bills on both sides of the ball. Buffalo’s 35-8 loss in Miami, in particular, was anything but pretty. Buffalo’s offense has picked it up in recent weeks and come to life in losses to Houston and New England. Against the Patriots, Buffalo was poised for a late comeback victory before a late INT. The Bills defense looks like a lost cause at this point, but if the offense shows up and plays like it has the last two weeks, Buffalo should have a chance.

Who matters: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB C.J. Spiller, LBs Kelvin Sheppard and Nick Barnett. Fitzpatrick had one of his best games of the year against New England (27 of 40 for 337 yards, 2 TDs and an INT). The QB was confident in the pocket and more aggressive with his throws down the field. The Bills need him to be at his best with the defense surrendering points at will. Spiller will get another chance to serve as a feature back following Fred Jackson’s concussion in Week 10. Spiller’s been sensational this season with limited touches. He had only nine carries against New England in Week 10 (and ran for 7.8 yards per attempt) and averages 10 carries per game. He’s deserving of an increased workload, which is sure to happen against Miami. Buffalo’s struggles against the run have been well documented this season. The Bills are last in the league against the run, allowing an average of 163.7 yards per game. They’ll need Sheppard and Barnett to stay in the correct gaps against Dolphins RB Reggie Bush, who is slippery in the open field.

Key matchups: Bills LT Cordy Glenn vs. Dolphins OLB Cameron Wake, Bills WR Stevie Johnson vs. CB Sean Smith, Dolphins WR Brian Hartline vs. Bills CB Stephon Gilmore. Glenn has quite the assignment in Wake, one of the top pass rushers in the league. Wake currently has 8.5 sacks, matching his 2011 sack total in just nine games. Glenn got off to a difficult start against New England in Week 10 but came on strong as the game went on, leading the way for Jackson’s 14-yard touchdown run in the second quarter. He’ll need to be at the top of his game against Wake. Johnson (41 receptions for 502 yards, 4 TDs) remains Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon in the passing game. Johnson’s production has been inconsistent largely due to Fitzpatrick’s erratic play under center; the WR continues to create separation on a consistent basis. Smith has struggled the past two weeks, so Johnson should have no shortage of opportunities downfield. Gilmore has had plenty of ups and downs in his rookie season, but he is Buffalo’s unquestioned top cornerback. He’ll face another challenge in Hartline, Miami’s leading receiver (49 receptions for 741 yards, one TD).

Injuries of note: RB Fred Jackson is out after suffering a concussion against New England in Week 10. DE Mark Anderson (knee) will miss another 1-2 weeks after having a second procedure done on his injured knee. DE Chris Kelsay (neck) did not practice on Tuesday and is not expected to return Thursday. CB Aaron Williams (knee) is out.

Inside stuff: WR Donald Jones has settled into a groove in the slot in recent weeks. He had six receptions for 65 yards against Houston in Week 9 and six receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown against New England on Sunday.

Connections: Defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt was Miami’s head coach from 2000-04, posting a 42-31 record (including postseason appearances). Head coach Chan Gailey was Wannstedt’s offensive coordinator in Miami from 2000-01. Former Bills defensive coordinator George Edwards (2009-11) is Miami’s LBs coach.

Stat you should know: The Bills have not won a primetime game since Oct. 18, 2001 (13-10 over Jacksonville).

Record watch: With a touchdown pass from Fitzpatrick to Johnson, the duo will become the fourth tandem in team history to connect on 22 or more touchdowns.

Looking ahead: If the Bills lose this game, they effectively kiss their faint playoff hopes goodbye. A win could propel them for a late-season surge as their schedule eases up a bit over the next few weeks. The Bills head to Indianapolis in Week 12. After that, they play two of the worst teams in the league in Jacksonville and St. Louis.

Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 20

For more updates on the Bills, follow correspondent Mark Ludwiczak on Twitter @CBSBills and @MarkLud12.